The Guardian’s view on the nationalist surge: SNP and Plaid Cymru make the political weather | Editorial

VViewed through a Westminster prism, electoral politics in the United Kingdom looks like a contest between five parties. The narrative has aired well into conference season. The three established parties – Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – are struggling to ride the wave of reform in the UK, while the Greens hover in the wings. But in Scotland and Wales, there are different pictures that the Westminster publication does not see. In both countries, British parties are still fighting their corners. However, the main nationalist parties – the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru – are reaping the benefits. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party has a clear position Ballot bulletswhile in Wales, plaid Face to face With reform in the United Kingdom. Established parties find themselves caught between the two as they fight for survival.

With the Nationalists holding their annual conferences this weekend, and next spring’s crucial elections for devolved parliaments, observers across the UK need to be clear. Most of the political winds in 2026 will blow from the north and west. Next year, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru could become government parties, a familiar role for the former, but a stunning shift for the latter.

The rise of the plaid means Swansea conference It represents a pivotal opportunity for the party under its leader Rune ab Ehrwerth. Plaid owes its recent rise to many things, including a sluggish economy, Labour’s unpopularity in the UK, and the lackluster weakness of the Welsh Labor Party. register. The October 23 Sindh by-election in Caerphilly, a seat Labor has never lost, will serve as an indicator of the wider mood and Plaid’s appeal in the Valleys.

You have to go back to 1918 to find an All-Wales election in which Labor did not come first. Labor has also won every time the SEND election has been contested, as will happen again in May. However, if it is the latest Wales-wide survey Holds good, which is set to change. Instead, the Blade will be the largest party, just ahead of the UK’s Reform Party, with Labor in third place. Although still a minority, Plaid will be in government. In Welsh terms, this would constitute a political earthquake. Maybe in Britain as well.

The SNP’s victory in May’s Holyrood election will not be an earthquake, after eighteen continuous years of Nationalist rule. However, it will signal a remarkable return from the eclipse period, and from the often poor record in public services. For Labour, which did well in Scotland in the 2024 general election, it would signal a moment of crisis, putting Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership at risk.

A fifth SNP term could also put independence back on the agenda, with the party claiming that a separate Scotland is the best way to escape Nigel Farage. John Swinney of the Scottish National Party has published a new article Independence proposal this week. Although these are mainly aimed at party debates in Aberdeen WeekendBut the events that followed May could give his ideas another boost. Support independence is Already at 47%. It may not take much longer to tip the scales the SNP’s way.

Both nationalist parties smell victory. But the two movements march to the beat of different drums. Plaid has re-emerged as a not-yet-distorted centre-left alternative to Labor and the right. On the other hand, the Scottish National Party is performing well in opinion polls despite its record record. Scottish social attitudes reconnaissance Published this week, it found that only 22% are satisfied with the NHS, while confidence in devolution has also fallen. Neither party appears ready to form a majority government. As rival parties have also found, winning the support of dissatisfied voters may be easier than putting a party’s visions into practice.

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