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Balogun? baby? Predicting USMNT’s 2026 World Cup forwards


Over the past two FIFA World Cups, the starting striker position for the US Men’s National Team has been an unsolvable puzzle, with neither candidate able to clinch a fixed spot. It wasn’t always this way.

Eric Wynalda and Brian McBride led the US line through the 1990s and 2000s. Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey carried the flag during the 2014 World Cup and shortly thereafter, although it is worth noting that Dempsey spent a large part of his international career in a midfield role. The same goes for Landon Donovan.

Since then, the search has been for a starting central striker with holy grail qualities.

The 2022 World Cup has never revealed a striker who can deliver on a consistent basis. Jesús Ferreira, Jordan Bivock, Ricardo Pepe, Josh Sargent and Gyasi Zardes all started during World Cup qualifiers. For a time, it looked like Pepe would emerge, but he faded in the latter part of the cycle – mostly due to a lack of playing time at club level – and was beaten to the roster selection bar by Hajj Wright. Sargent’s injury at the World Cup, coupled with the ineffectiveness of Ferreira and Wright, meant that the United States did not come out of its position in Qatar as much as it had hoped.

This cycle was more chaotic. Beebe, Sargent and Wright remain in contention, and he joins them Folarin Balogun and Patrick Agyemang. While Balogun has gained some spotlight among himself and other potential players thanks to an impressive performance in the recent friendly against Japan, he has yet to earn his place.

With the October window including friendlies against Ecuador and Australia, here things stand in the race to wear the number 9 for Mauricio Pochettino’s side at next summer’s World Cup, and a player who is statistically comparable to the five in contention to start up front in June.


Folarin Balogun | 24 | AS Monaco

When Balogun committed to the USMNT in May 2023 – he was also eligible to represent England and Nigeria – he was thought to represent the USMNT’s long-term answer to the striker position. First there was the bonus: he scored in the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League final against Canada, and was one of the few players to emerge from the 2024 Copa America with any credit. But injuries, including a recurring shoulder ailment that required surgery in December 2024, prevented him from dominating the position.

Balogun’s mobility allows him to get behind opposition defences. The problem is that the US offense has not always proven adept at finding them in those situations. But Balogun’s movement has the added benefit of pulling defenders out of position, the better to create space for the likes of him. Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah or Alejandro Zendegas.

The match that was held in Japan last September showed the full potential of his skills, and he even demonstrated his ability to play with his back to goal and catch the ball if asked to do so. Even in the loss to South Korea, the American attack looked more dynamic when Balogun entered the match as a substitute in the 62nd minute.

The only doubts surround his durability, as well as whether he will get consistent playing time at Monaco, where competition for places has been fierce. He has just one goal and one assist in the league this season, covering 332 minutes.

Statistical comparison: Nicholas Jackson. Balogun proved to be a willing runner and ball carrier with powerful shooting and assists. In the last three years, he has averaged 0.50 goals from 3.69 shots per 90 minutes. Unfortunately, like Jackson, he has also proven to be a very poor finisher – those 0.50 goals per 90 come from shots worth 0.70 xG per 90. –Bill Connelly

Wright is the only American striker with a goal to his name in a World Cup. He certainly doesn’t seem to know much about his tally in the Round of 16 loss to the Netherlands at the 2022 World Cup, but a goal is a goal.

Given Pochettino’s disdain for players’ reputations, what is most relevant to Wright’s case is the strong form he has shown in the English Championship this year, where his eight goals sit at the top of the league and propelled Coventry to the top of the table.

Wright has some versatility to his game. His 6-foot-3 frame allows him to be a force in the air, but he’s also quick enough to play on the wing, which he did at times for Coventry and the USMNT. His ability to smell opportunities is also impressive. His tally from less than 2 yards in last weekend’s 5-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday showed his ability to be in the right place at the right time.

What’s holding Wright back? There were times during the recent World Cup when he looked slow to react to attacking opportunities. Perhaps the moment had come. Even though that was nearly three years ago, it’s an image that will stick in the memory until he performs bigger on stage.

Statistical comparison: Randall Kolo Mwani. Wright doesn’t have the passing ability of Kolo Mwani, but he scores (0.56 goals per 90 minutes) and really pushes the ball. He’s averaged 6.1 progressive carries per 90 the last three years, drawing 1.42 fouls per 90 in that span. This creates a rare profile and makes Kolo Muani a better comp. –Connelly

During last week’s conference call announcing the U.S. roster for the October window, Pochettino said Agyemang presents a different image to Balogun and Wright, one derived from his physical presence — he’s 6-foot-4 — and aerial ability. These traits were on display in Derby County’s 1-1 draw with Southampton last weekend, when Agyemang towered above the Saints defender to head home the Rams’ only goal of the day.

However, Agyemang is a raw talent, and he sometimes struggles with his touch and play. But he looks well suited to score an ugly goal late in the game, if necessary, and his passing has seen him pick up two assists already in 307 minutes in the EFL Championship.

Agyemang’s chances of earning a World Cup roster spot, like many players, come down to his health and the numbers game Pochettino will have to play. If Pochettino only opts to field three strikers, and a player like Pepe is healthy, Agyemang could be one of the final cuts. But his ‘different profile’ could be what puts him over the top, especially if Pochettino opts for a front four.

Statistical comparison: Olivier Giroud. Agyemang is excellent in the air (47.5% volley success rate), and is happy to draw plenty of contact (2.05 fouls per 90 players, 0.92 in the attacking third). This makes him very similar to Giroud, as does the quality of his finishing – he averages 0.51 goals from 0.40 xG shots, and 90% of his shots come from inside the penalty area – although his shot totals aren’t huge, and he’s not involved anywhere else on the pitch. –Connelly

Three years ago, Pepe was the odd man out in terms of the American roster that went to Qatar. It proved to be a mistake, however, when the United States let Ferreira start against the Dutch. Now Pepe is aiming to be in the 2026 squad, if his body allows him to.

The calendar year 2025 saw Pepe struggling for his fitness. He suffered a knee injury during the Champions League match against Liverpool last January, which later required surgery, forcing him to miss the Gold Cup last summer. Pepe’s recovery since then has been stalling. He has been slowly snapped up by PSV Eindhoven and looked set to return after scoring twice against NEC Nijmegen last month, but a recent muscle injury has put him back on the shelf. He does not think it is dangerous, but it prevented him from participating in this camp.

While Pepe has many impressive attributes, his movement allows him to seize opportunities and get on the end of passes that other strikers might miss. Combine this with his link-up play and you have a striker capable of contributing a lot to the US team. But time is running out for Pepe to make a bigger impression.

Statistical comparison: Lautaro Martinez. More than any other striker on this list, Pepe is involved, just as Martinez is. His attacking numbers are inflated by playing in the Eredivisie, but they are still excellent (0.74 goals and 1.36 chances created per 90 minutes), and he has proven to be a reliable striker (those goals came from shots worth 0.52 xG). He also shows up on defence, where he averages an excellent 5.53 defensive tackles per tackler per 90. –Connelly

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Rarely has the difference between a player’s club level and international level been as stark as with Sargent. The O’Fallon, Missouri native has racked up double-digit goals in each of his past three full seasons with the Canaries in the Championship, and is on pace this year with five goals in nine league appearances. That makes Sargent’s barren tenure with the USMNT — he has not scored for the United States in his last 17 international caps, dating back to November 2019 — even more baffling.

Perhaps his plan is down to the fact that although Sargent does a lot of things well – be it with his movement, his link-up play, or his finishing as well – there is no single aspect of his game that looks elite enough to help him be a difference-maker in a World Cup.

Pochettino seems to have noticed this too. Even with Pepe’s injury this window, there was no room for Sargent among the forwards on the roster. He has World Cup experience, which is important, but it may not be enough.

Statistical comparison: Moise Kean. Sargent is the most statistically significant American striker on this list, but like Kane, he is a willing presser (4.09 defensive tackles per 90 minutes since the start of 2024-25) and an above-average scorer (0.56 goals per 90 on 0.48 xG shots). His shooting total is always lower than you’d prefer (2.43 shots per 90), and he doesn’t stand out as a passer. –Connelly


Balogun, Pepe, Wright and Agyemang appear to be in position to feature in the World Cup squad, in that order. Four forwards may seem like too many, but these four all have different profiles that could help the USMNT at different times. Flexibility is vital in a tournament like the World Cup.

In terms of who starts, Balogun has the inside track at the moment, but that situation could change quickly. At this stage, it appears that the only way for Sargent to return to the World Cup is if others are injured or suffer a significant drop in form.

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