UFC Fight Night predictions, odds, fight card, expert picks for Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Charles Oliveira returns home. Oliveira will compete in his native Brazil for the first time since 2020 on Saturday. Lightweight contender Mateusz Gamrot takes on the role of opponent in the UFC Fight Night headliner.
Oliveira (35-11) last fought in Brazil five years ago, beating Kevin Lee in the last event before the coronavirus shutdown. The fight took place in an empty arena, which means that “Do Bronx” has not fought in front of Brazilian fans in six years. It’s sad to think that Oliveira’s entire title campaign – in which he finished off Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje to become a fan favorite – took place outside of his home country. Oliveira goes home empty-handed, but he’s eager to win against Jamrut. A celebratory BMF title fight with Max Hollowaywhich in turn he hopes will give him another chance to win the UFC title.
“It’s for my legacy,” Oliveira said He said CBS Sports through a Portuguese translator when asked why he was asked to fight on this card. “To be in front of my fans and feel the energy that the Brazilian people have.”
Gamrut (25-3) was waiting for a fight like this. Gamrot is probably the best wrestler in the division, and Oliveira’s very dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu player is not deterred. If anything, he’s excited to face a rare opponent who will indulge in wrestling. External factors give Gamrot a wave of confidence. Oliveira was originally preparing to fight a completely different opponent in Rafael Fisieev, an elite striker, before Gamrot intervened. Additionally, Gamrot sees Arman Tsarukyan’s success against Oliveira as a clear sign heading into Saturday’s fight.
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“Oliveira doesn’t like wrestlers,” Gamrot told CBS Sports. “He’s the most dangerous man on the floor. I understand that people don’t want to get on the floor with him. But not me. Wrestling and BJJ are in my DNA.
“I love exchanging submissions and grappling. I’m happy that my former opponents always try to stand up. Charles Oliveira will try to submit me or grapple with me.”
Check out the full interview with Mateusz Gamrot below.
Saturday’s fight night includes a number of worthwhile bouts and plenty of Brazilian action for the local crowd. Two-time flyweight champion Davison Figueiredo continues his bantamweight campaign against rising contender Montel Jackson. Figueiredo returns after suffering a knee loss to Corey Sandhagen, in the fight that preceded Sandhagen’s title win against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 320. Jackson is on a six-fight winning streak in pursuit of his biggest win to date.
There’s also an all-out showdown between welterweight champions Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez. Luque has seen better days, but he is one fight away from potentially tying the UFC welterweight records for most finishes and post-fight bonuses. Speaking of finishing, you won’t find a more consistent finisher than Alvarez. All of his 22 professional victories have come by stoppage, including seven in the UFC. Alvarez is on a three-fight winning streak after losing to top contender Tsarukyan in 2022.
Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook before getting to our prediction and expert picks for the main event.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
Odds via DraftKings
| Matthews Gamrot -115 | Charles Oliveira -105 | Light weight |
| Montel Jackson -325 | Davison Figueiredo +260 | rooster weight |
| Joel Alvarez -535 | Vicente Luque +400 | Welterweight |
| Jonata Diniz -142 | Mario Pinto +120 | Heavy weight |
| Ricardo Ramos -198 | Offley was +164 | featherweight |
| Michael Aswell Jr. -162 | Lucas Almeida +136 | featherweight |
UFC Fight Night show information
date: October 11 | Start time: 7pm ET (main card)
location: Farmasi Arena – Rio de Janeiro
TV channel: ESPN+
prediction
Charles Oliveira vs. Mateus Gamrot: It’s easy to imagine Gamrot neutralizing Oliveira. The Polish fighter, who represents American Top Team, may be the best pure wrestler in the division. Gamrot is averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes, while Oliveira is giving up more than half the attempts on him. Oliveira’s sharp submission game takes the pressure off defensive takedowns, but Gamrot has the skills to avoid being taken advantage of. Don’t forget: Gamrot defeated Tsarukyan in an impressive five-round grappling exhibition. What happens to Oliveira is a two-fold threat. He’s an incredibly solid offensive tackler, and his questionable offensive defense won’t come back to bite him in this fight. Oliveira can replicate and build on the incredible success Dan Hooker had against Gamrot. Admittedly, I’m concerned that Oliveira couldn’t finish Chandler for more than 25 minutes last year. My mind says “Gamrot,” but my heart says “Oliviera,” and few people embody the heart like “Do Bronx.” Oliveira via KO3