Trump is set to meet Zelensky with a new ambition for peace in Ukraine
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the White House on Friday, he will be greeted by an American president who only weeks ago seemed to have washed his hands of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“I wish both countries well,” Donald Trump said in a social media post on September 23, signaling what was widely interpreted as the end of his efforts to bring peace to a conflict he once claimed he could resolve within 24 hours.
But now, with the landslide victory of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement, Mr. Trump has set his sights on ending the war in Ukraine again — but with a twist.
Why did we write this?
President Donald Trump appears to have drawn a lesson from the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel: To achieve peace, you have to rely heavily on the combatants. Now, he is applying this approach to Russia, to force it to end its invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts say that the president believes that his hard-line stance and the exercise of American force played a decisive role in pushing Hamas and Israel to “yes” to reaching an agreement. He is now considering a similar approach to ending the war in Ukraine.
If the “peace through war” approach has worked in the Middle East – Figure 1 shows how US participation in Israel’s 12-day war against Iran persuaded a weak Iranian state to pressure its client Hamas to reach an agreement – then why not try to apply it to the Ukraine war?
Over the past week, Trump has indicated that he might change course and supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles that would put Moscow within range of the Ukrainian military. “I might say [to Russia]Look, if the war isn’t settled, I’ll sell [the Ukrainians] “Tomahawk,” he told reporters traveling with him to the Middle East on Sunday.
Leaks from the administration in recent days indicate that the White House is considering other offensive (and defensive) systems for Ukraine, as well as technical assistance for targeting with any new weapons. Publicly, administration officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have adopted an increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward Russia, especially since the president’s triumphant trip to the Middle East.
Some analysts say that everything from Mr. Zelensky’s visit to the Tomahawk missile floatation and the administration’s new aggressive tone sends a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Mr. Trump wants to end the war, and that he is now willing to resort to force to make it happen.
“The Tomahawks are more of a political message than a military message,” says Mark Montgomery, a retired admiral who is now senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center for Cyber and Technology Innovation in Washington. “But what is on the table is a ‘Tomahawk and…’ that could provide Ukraine with some offensive weapons that could start making a difference on the ground now.”
He says the combination of what is being discussed are low-cost laser-guided missiles that could be mounted on F-16s and used to destroy Russian attack drones wreaking havoc in Ukraine.
Moreover, he adds, Mr. Zelensky’s visit alone is a message to Mr. Putin. He adds: “For Zelensky, this is the third visit in a year, and it is a visit similar to Netanyahu’s visit.”
However, Admiral Montgomery says he doubts what he describes as an attempt to “get rid of” Putin will succeed – and others agree.
“None of this is going to change the calculus,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that encourages restraint in American foreign policy. “Putin has shown that he was willing to bear these costs, and I see no reason to believe that has changed,” she adds.
Supporting the argument that talk of Tomahawk missiles is largely political is the fact that even if Mr. Trump announced on Friday that he would sell the long-range missiles to Ukraine, the weapons system could not be ready for war for at least several months.
Anatoly Stepanov – Reuters
Experts point out that Tomahawk missiles will require a launch system that is not available on the market.
“Right now, there is no way for Ukraine to launch Tomahawk missiles even if we supplied them,” says Dr. Kavanagh. “So, really, there is nothing that would be useful today.”
On the other hand, she says, simply deciding to supply Tomahawk missiles could be escalatory and put the United States on a slippery slope toward deeper involvement in the war. It indicates that Russia has already begun to use nuclear weapons, noting that Tomahawk missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Others believe that providing Tomahawk missiles capable of hitting Moscow would level the playing field with the aggressor that regularly attacks Kiev and other cities deep inside Ukraine.
For some foreign policy analysts, the most important thing to learn from this moment is what it says about the evolution of President Trump’s thinking about the war in Ukraine — and about the parties involved in it.
In August, Trump appeared to shift to Putin’s view of the war when he welcomed the Russian leader to a summit in Alaska. Zelensky then visited the White House surrounded by European leaders who feared Trump could intimidate their Ukrainian colleague — as he did during a White House visit in February — with a pro-Russian stance.
But recently, the president expressed his disappointment in Putin, and admitted in statements to French President Emmanuel Macron that “unfortunately, that relationship” [with Mr. Putin] It didn’t mean anything.”
In a sign that he has not yet abandoned his relationship, Mr. Trump reported on Thursday that he had spoken at length with the Russian president and the two leaders had agreed to meet in the future in Budapest, Hungary.
Meanwhile, Mr. Zelensky has worked to stay in Mr. Trump’s good graces and convince the president that a strong, deepening relationship with Ukraine is not a handout, but a benefit to the United States, some analysts say.
“Zelensky, who visits the White House on Friday, no longer needs to come in a state of despair,” Admiral Montgomery says.
The admiral notes that a phalanx of Ukrainian officials preceded Mr. Zelensky’s visit with a kind of full-on press all over Washington, touting everything from joint production of drones to energy cooperation. “Zelensky does a good job of demonstrating Ukraine’s lasting value to the United States outside of a wartime alliance,” Admiral Montgomery says.