What Palestinians and Israelis have learned since October 7

Earlier this week, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that includes the release of the 20 living hostages still in Gaza and about two thousand Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. The success of the exchange raised hopes that the devastating war might actually be coming to an end. President Donald Trump, who took credit for the deal after pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept it, now wants both sides to implement his twenty-point peace plan, which requires Hamas to disarm and Israel to leave Gaza. (Israeli officials He said New York times They are now considering punitive measures after Hamas said late Wednesday that the remains of more than a dozen Israeli hostages – who are also supposed to be returned to Israel – have not been found. Separately, Israeli forces still operating in Gaza have continued to kill Palestinians since the ceasefire began.)

I recently spoke by phone with Nathan Thrall, former director of the International Crisis Group’s Arab-Israeli Conflict Project. Thrall, who lives in Jerusalem, is also the author of “A day in the life of Abdel Salama“I wanted to talk to Thrall about what the Palestinian national struggle might look like in the future. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we also discussed his concerns about the lessons Israel may have learned from the war, why America is unwilling to use its influence to help resolve the conflict that has worsened, and whether the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, was a strategic as well as a moral disaster.

In terms of the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, what has changed most in terms of the way you thought about it on October 6, 2023, compared to today?

The biggest change in the past two years is that the potential for widespread ethnic cleansing has become very real. Of course, we have already witnessed widespread ethnic cleansing inside Gaza. But what I have seen over the past two years is a strong Israeli society that faces few obstacles and has the ability, and in the right circumstances, the willingness, to expel vast numbers of Palestinians and, in the eyes of many Israelis, resolve the Palestinian issue once and for all.

I am talking about all the territories under Israel’s control, that is, historic Palestine. 78% of historic Palestine lies within Israel’s pre-1967 borders. This does not include the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which make up the remaining 22%. But the West Bank is occupied by Israel, and before October 7, if you total the entire territory under effective Palestinian control — that is, where the Palestinian Authority controls the West Bank and Hamas controls Gaza — that together makes up about ten percent of historic Palestine. Of course, Israel still launches raids on those areas whenever it wants. So we are talking about Israel’s direct administration of about ninety percent of historic Palestine.

There is a difference between ethnic cleansing inside The occupied territories – what we have seen in the West Bank and on a much larger scale in Gaza over the past two years – and what might happen next, which is the potential expulsion of large numbers of Palestinians to areas outside historic Palestine. The Arab countries’ fear of precisely this outcome, and the destabilizing effects it might have on their regimes, was one of the reasons that made them unite around Trump’s deeply problematic plan for Gaza, even though this plan does not provide guarantees that Israel will completely withdraw from the region or stop attacks on the Palestinians within it.

So, in your opinion, October 7th and the war that followed changed the idea of ​​what was possible for Israelis, because despite some opposition from the international community, and a lot of stories suggesting that Israel’s reputation is at an all-time low, the actual lesson is that they can do whatever they want?

Yes. What has really changed is that ethnic cleansing has become part of mainstream public discourse. It’s something I previously thought was not so far-fetched but is highly unlikely outside of a major regional war. Now it has been discussed. People are polled on it. one reconnaissance It was found that 82% of Israeli Jews support the expulsion of the residents of Gaza. You can quibble with one poll or another, but you have a clear Jewish-Israeli majority that supports pushing the Palestinians out of Gaza. On some level, many Israelis feel that their fundamental dilemma, the dilemma of Zionism, has not been resolved as long as there are millions of Palestinians living in the territories under their control.

When you say this has become part of mainstream discourse, what do you mean?

I’m talking about media figures, government ministers, and Knesset members discussing expulsions. I’m talking about center-left Israelis putting forward plans for what they call a voluntary “relocation” from Gaza. Ram Ben Barak, a member of the Knesset from the Center Party, was involved in drafting one of these plans. This is not a fringe idea anymore. This comes from the fact that the Israelis are not willing to grant the Palestinians a state, or equal rights. What remains is either continued apartheid or ethnic cleansing, and ethnic cleansing is attractive because it seems like a solution. While apartheid seems like it might be sustainable, it is not a solution. It’s as if the problem hasn’t been solved.

Okay, but why did you not notice the international condemnation and decline in Israel’s popularity among the Israelis and did not convince them of the necessity of changing course? Why do you think they learned the opposite lesson?

There is a big difference between a change in public opinion and changes in policy that actually affect Israelis. And we really haven’t seen the last of it. During the genocide, the Israeli arms industry was booming. They were achieving record profits. We have at least nearly seventy thousand dead in Gaza. It took this to get the first bill to ban settlement products introduced in some countries in Europe. But an EU-wide ban on settlement products is still not possible. It’s a non-starter. So the Israelis feel no real consequences.

I agree with everyone on the left who thinks this shift in global public opinion is important, but what this shift means is often exaggerated. The United States arms Israel, and the Europeans are Israel’s first trading partner. It’s embarrassing to see how many people are calling this a peace deal – not just Trump but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The Europeans are likely to reverse even their modest steps. The Eurovision Song Contest was due to hold a vote in November on whether Israel should not participate in next year’s competition, and that vote has now been postponed. You see headline after headline about how Europe is preparing to re-embrace Israel.