Democrats have a key advantage in the November election: from the policy office

Welcome to the online version of From the policy officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis of the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Monday! We hope so Amazon Web Services outage It didn’t disrupt the start of your week.

We are now 15 days away from the November election. In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar delves into the ad spending advantage Democrats have created in top races, while Bridget Bowman talks about how the White House candidates are getting involved in the party.

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– Adam Woolner

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Democrats have an ad spending advantage in the biggest election of the year

Written by Ben Kamisar

Democrats have one thing in common across November’s three major elections: a lead on ad spending.

Money doesn’t buy everything in campaigns, otherwise the history books would look very different. But the data, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, tells a story about the status of each race.

Ballot procedures for redistricting in California: Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $66 million asking Californians to vote “yes” on the measure to approve a new congressional map that could give the party up to five additional House seats.

the Top pan ads What they call President Donald Trump’s “unprecedented power grab to steal congressional seats and rig the 2026 election” by pushing for new maps in Texas, Missouri and elsewhere.

The “No” side of the race is very well-funded compared to most campaigns, but with nearly $28 million spent on ads opposing the redistricting campaign so far, it falls far short of the “Yes” side financially.

The “No” ads have tried to paint Gov. Gavin Newsom as a bogeyman, arguing that the Democrat wants to steal power from the independent redistricting commission because he “wants the same politicians who failed California to draw safe seats and manipulate elections to help make himself president.”

Governor of Virginia: Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s campaign has spent nearly $40 million on ads this year, more than double the more than $18 million from Republican Winsome Earl Sears’ campaign. What’s particularly notable is that there hasn’t been a massive influx of Republican dollars; As was the case in 2021To fill the gap this year.

Spanberger’s best ads focus heavily on economic issues; Linking Earl Sears to Trump The two argueRaising prices on everything“.

Meanwhile, Earl Sears’ ads attacked Spanberger Transgender policies in schools And recently, Violent text messages It was sent a few years ago by Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones.

Governor of New Jersey: Since the primary ended, Democrats have spent $41 million to the GOP’s $29 million. Outside groups are the biggest spenders: $23 million from the Democratic-aligned Greater Garden State, and $13 million from the GOP-aligned Restore New Jersey Party.

At the gubernatorial candidate level, Republican Jack Ciattarelli has a spending advantage of $13 million, compared to Democrat Mickey Sherrill’s $10.5 million.

There is also relative unanimity in advertising on the ground the two sides are fighting over – the economy. The best ads in the race all focus on, and fight over, different economic topics High electricity billsmore Which their policies could make worseAnd on any party Tax policies It will be More harmful.

Read more from Ben →

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Potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election are beginning to emerge ahead of the November election

Written by Bridget Bowman

PARAMUS, N.J. — As Detroit rapper J. Mac Cash’s song “Big Gretch” blared over the speakers in the union hall, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer took to the rally stage. But the Democrat was not campaigning in her home state.

Whitmer found herself in New Jersey on Saturday morning, just more than two weeks before voters there will choose their next governor, in one of two gubernatorial contests in the country this year.

“Some of you may know me as ‘Big Gretch,’” Whitmer said. “Some people refer to me as ‘that woman from Michigan.’” However you know me, I’m very happy to be here in the Garden State this morning.

The two-term governor then made her pitch to Rep. Mikie Sherrill to join the ranks of Democratic governors — a speech that also doubled as a potential preview of Whitmer’s Democratic leadership address.

She is among the potential presidential candidates on the campaign trail in New Jersey and Virginia as Democrats try to chart a way forward after President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore also joined Sherrill over the weekend, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota objected to Sherrill earlier this month. In Virginia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is scheduled to appear with former Rep. Abigail Spanberger on Tuesday, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear began campaigning in the state last month.

There may be more to come before November 4th. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s spokesman said Politico said The governor is expected to campaign in neighboring New Jersey. Shapiro’s spokesman did not respond to a request for comment on his plans.

“We’re generally bringing people into the community where the community is asking for that alternative,” Sherrill told reporters after a Sunday morning event with Moore in Newark, when asked if former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris would.

Sherrill said “several people” asked Moore to come to the state. She also noted that her campaign has received similar requests regarding Whitmer and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., a New Jersey native and potential presidential contender who was recently scheduled to campaign with Sherrill but was unable to attend the event. Sherrill said her campaign has reached out to “several” potential replacements.

Read more from Bridget →

📊 Dive into the data: Steve Kornacki explores how Trump’s surprise successes in traditionally nonwhite Democratic districts in New Jersey in 2024 have added an unpredictable variable to this year’s governor’s race.

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That’s all from the Policy Office for now. Today’s newsletter is compiled by Adam Woolner.

If you have comments – likes or dislikes – email us at policynewsletter@nbcuni.com

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