MLB playoffs: Seven questions for Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Game 7
It all comes down to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Toronto Blue Jays earned a win over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force a win-or-go-home series in the ALCS final on Monday, with the winner set to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
Will Toronto finish its comeback or will Seattle punch its ticket to a first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus question looking at how the AL pennant winner will fare against the reigning champions.
1. How important is home-court advantage for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Center throughout the regular season and into October were electric. Players have repeatedly praised the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were loud and it didn’t matter.
Buster Olney: It can’t mean anything; The Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I think getting the lead will be important, because if Seattle trails by two or three games, the challenge of winning one last game at Rogers Center will be more difficult because of the crazy crowd.
2. The Mariners have had positive vibes on their side all season. How important is it for Seattle to continue to find a way into Game 7?
Jeff Passan: Feelings only take a team so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and their ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and calm the offense with strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby was pounded for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. Instead, he needs to channel his last game to win or go home, when he stifled Detroit for five innings in the division series.
While Seattle outgained the Blue Jays in the ALCS, their 28.1% strikeout rate isn’t good, and Shane Bieber, who is on the mound in Toronto, will rely heavily on the rotation — so that happens to play a role in his wheelhouse. Both teams are tired, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward correcting the Mariners’ offense.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how good their energy was and that coming back is part of their identity. But what’s most important for Seattle is to play a clean game — something Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made several errors early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a base error from J.B. Crawford. The Blue Jays are constantly putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the defense, and Seattle must respond better to stay alive.
3. Which team has a Game 7 showing advantage, and why?
David Schoenfeld: A slight advantage overall for the Blue Jays, based mostly on how the pitching game played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 strikeouts) and Kirby didn’t (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine strikeouts). The Mariners have the advantage late in the game with Andres Munoz, who will get two days off after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches on Sunday.
The Mariners have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in the start of Game 4), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown threat, having taken two days off after the injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be an option for the Blue Jays. In fact, the Jays might want to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Farland and Hoffman and not delve into their pen any further. If someone else gets into the game, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David mentioned, but the unknown variable here is Brian Waugh. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s star player during the regular season, but a pectoral injury limited him to two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andres Muñoz also on three days rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. It could be the difference.
4. Which player should help Seattle win?
Schoenfeld: Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners player to have a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two strong efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and a .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — nor is he expected to — but Seattle needs four or five solid innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him in a tough Game 6, where he went 0-for-4 with three hits, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.
5. Which player should take over for Toronto?
Basan: In the Blue Jays’ six postseason wins, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one hit in 30 games. It’s a human test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting Bieber off to a good start would help a lot — Toronto’s team this postseason has been extremely inconsistent, and relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless pitching ride expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to make the most of it will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has scored just two goals in 47 games this season.
Olney: Bieber, because of all the uncertainty the Toronto bullpen presented. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can offer after his Game 6 outing, and while Farland has confidence, he will also work on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about the possibility of using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or perhaps Chris Bassett, but it’s hard to know exactly what he’d get from either.
The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline with the hope that he could provide meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a more important situation for a franchise that is playing for a chance to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Choose your target: Who is the unexpected player who you think can decide Game 7?
Schoenfeld: Ernie Clement became less surprising as the postseason went on, hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero scored just two goals each in 10 postseason games. And that sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: these guys put the ball in play. Considering that Guerrero may not see a closer pitch than Manitoba in this game, players coming in behind him may have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Basan: Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners lineup and has just two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he deserves it, but beyond that, Crawford is compiling excellent appearances every out — his 4.5 pitches per outing is second-highest among regulars — and has the lowest strikeout rate of any Seattle player in this Series.
During the regular season, Crawford’s high leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves the big moments. And nothing in Mariners franchise history matters as much as Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And truly Choose your goal: Which team will be the last team in the ALCS?
Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season started, so I won’t deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since losing the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.
Basan: The nature of postseason baseball is exemplified by the home teams’ record in winner-take-all games: 71-67. Considering how back-and-forth this series has been, an appearance by either team would make a lot of sense. The idea of Kirby and Pepper both paying is very realistic, making this a bull fight. With Andrés Muńoz able to work multiple innings after two days of rest and Hoffman coming off 35 pitches, the edge is tilted slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners qualified for their first World Series with a 3-2 win.
Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see advance — or is Los Angeles too good to matter?
Basan: Simply because Los Angeles would have the advantage of playing at home and less arduous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has shown, the Blue Jays and Mariners are nearly identical. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy will certainly work in Los Angeles’ favor.
Likewise, Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular season OPS against heaters over 97 mph was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB best .766), and although they hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain vulnerable. In the end, whoever comes forward to confront a tyrant will have great advantage, and rightly so.
Olney: In talking with some evaluators with other teams, there is a near unanimous opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge for Los Angeles due to the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently, and of course, they have Guerrero; With all due respect to all the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.
We’ll see that in Game 7, when it looks very likely the Mariners will rally around him every chance they get — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than hits (two) in the postseason.