The big picture: The Packers’ offense is the biggest obstacle to reaching the Super Bowl

There are moments when the Green Bay Packers make everything look so effortless. Like their final drive against the Giants this past Sunday that ended with a perfect pass from Jordan Love into a swirling wind and Christian Watson’s leaping catch in double coverage.

That’s the way it was always supposed to look for a team that appears loaded on offense. They entered the season with a Pro Bowl running back, plenty of weapons and one of the best quarterbacks in the league, all led by one of the NFL’s brightest offensive minds. They looked like a team capable of scoring at will.

And when the Packers went out and made a blockbuster trade for Micah Parsons so they’d have the defense to match their prolific offense, it looked like everything was all set up for Love and head coach Matt LaFleur to come of age, to finally turn the Packers back into a true Super Bowl contender.

So what happened? And why has everything with the Packers’ offense this season just seemed so hard?

“We definitely know what we have, so it’s definitely frustrating sometimes when we’re not able to execute the way that we want,” Watson told me. “We’ve got to get to the point where we’re consistently putting that on display and making the plays. 

“That’s something we know. Potential means nothing if you never reach it. We understand that.”

There is no doubt that the Packers, despite a 6-3-1 record, haven’t reached their potential yet, which is why this promising season has seemingly reached a crossroads over the past few weeks — one that’s even led to speculation that their wildly successful coach could be sitting on a surprisingly hot seat. The offense, LaFleur’s specialty, had a particularly putrid two-game stretch before they faced the Giants, when they scored just 20 points combined in losses to the Panthers and the Eagles. And against the Eagles, they managed only 261 yards.

The fact that they amassed just 296 yards against the Giants one week later, in a game where they needed to come from behind to barely beat a 2-9 team with the fourth-worst defense in the league, wasn’t exactly a sign that they’ve figured everything out.

So, as they head into a crucial three-game stretch against their NFC North rivals — versus the Vikings, at Detroit and versus the Bears in the next three weeks — they know they’re running out of time to fix their offensive problems. And the biggest problem is they still don’t seem to know exactly what their offensive problem is.

“Football’s an imperfect game,” Watson said, “and you’ve got to have a short-term memory. But we know what we have. We know the potential. We’ve got to continue to take steps in the right direction to get there.”

It’s not that the Packers’ offense is bad. They are averaging 24 points and 344 yards per game, putting them just outside the top 10 in both categories. The problem is that they have been maddeningly inconsistent. They’ve been held under 300 yards in five of their 10 games, which happened only three times last year.

And a lot of that is on the 27-year-old Love and the passing attack. Two years ago, he looked like he was on the edge of greatness. He was coming off a 4,159-yard, 32-touchdown campaign in 2023 and was rewarded with a four-year, $220 million contract extension. But he couldn’t build on that in an injury-plagued 2024 season, which ended with his nightmarish, three-interception game against the Eagles in the playoffs. 

He seems to have put his interception woes behind him — he’s thrown just three in 10 games this season — but his overall numbers are once again down (2,421 yards and 15 touchdowns so far). He even went two straight weeks without a touchdown pass in those losses to Carolina and Philadelphia. And when he threw two touchdown passes against the Giants, it was just his second multi-touchdown game since September.

The Packers still have incredible faith in him, of course. 

“I mean, shoot, every time,” center Sean Rhyan said. “He’s got that touch, he’s got that power, he’s got that good mix. He’s a good quarterback, man.” 

And Love does rank 12th in the NFL in passing yards per game, eighth in passer rating (103.2) and fifth in QBR (69.7). For those who prefer advanced stats, Love even ranks third in offensive pass EPA (expected points added) per dropback, according to TruMedia.

But there are still too many times on offense, in the passing attack specifically, where it clearly looks like something is off.

“The problem with them isn’t the quarterback or their coach,” one NFC scout told me. “It’s their weapons. The surrounding cast just isn’t good.”

Specifically, the scout said, their problem is the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, something they’ve been searching for since trading away Davante Adams ahead of the 2022 season, a full year before Love became the Packers’ starter. They thought they addressed that in April when they took Texas’ Matthew Golden with the 23rd overall pick in the draft. But the 5-11, 191-pounder has been a disappointment, catching just 24 passes for 286 yards and no touchdowns so far.

And it’s not like the other receivers have stepped up to help. Love’s leading receiver, Romeo Doubs, has just 39 catches for 499 yards and four touchdowns. He also had three dropped passes on Sunday — half of the six Love’s receivers had in that game. Love’s most reliable weapon was tight end Tucker Kraft, who had 32 catches for 489 yards and six touchdowns, but the Packers lost him two weeks ago to a torn ACL. And since then, his backup, Luke Musgrave (a second-rounder in 2023) has not aptly filled those shoes (four catches for 22 yards over the past two games).

“Love just doesn’t have that true No. 1, that security blanket he can rely on in big spots,” the scout said. “Every quarterback needs that guy, whether it’s a receiver or a tight end. I thought Golden was supposed to be that for him. He certainly has the talent. But it hasn’t happened.

“The rest of that group is a bunch of second and third receivers, at best. They can work with that. But it’ll never be easy.”

Golden did arrive with a lot of promise, as the first receiver drafted by Green Bay in the first round since 2002. But he’s fourth on the team in targets, behind Doubs, Kraft and running back Josh Jacobs, with only half as many as Doubs’ 64, despite being on the field for nearly 60% of the team’s offensive snaps.

LaFleur insisted last week that Golden’s chances would come, insisting, “I think it’s a matter of time.” But when Golden returned on Sunday, after missing one game with a shoulder injury, he seemed to be behind both Doubs and Watson in the pecking order of the passing game. He was targeted only three times (1 catch for 24 yards) on Love’s 24 throws.

Maybe Watson’s return could be the boost that the Packers need, though. He’s played just four games this season, sitting out the first six as he recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in last year’s regular-season finale. The 6-4, 208-pound former second-round pick has always had big-play potential, as he showed on his leaping, game-winning touchdown catch in double coverage in Week 11. But he’s battled injuries throughout his four-year career, as well.

The Packers are also hoping for a late-season return of receiver Jayden Reed, a former second-round pick who led the Packers with 55 catches for 857 yards last year, but broke his collarbone in the second game of this season. LaFleur sounded hopeful that Reed would return soon, perhaps as early as next week.

For now, though, Doubs is Love’s leading receiver — though “leading” is misleading, since he ranks 40th in the NFL in catches and 39th in yards. His reliability is also a question, as he showed on Sunday when he seemed to alternate big plays with those three costly drops.

“Obviously, it’s frustrating,” Love admitted. “But it’s a team sport. It takes everybody out there making plays. And I always stay confident in these guys. We’ll find ways to make the next play. I always say, ‘It’s not going to be perfect.’ You want to make every play, but sometimes it doesn’t go right.”

And that’s the problem with the Packers: Too often it doesn’t go right, especially with their passing attack. And that’s taken a toll on their running game, too, which was fifth best in the league last year (146.8 yards per game), but ranks 19th now (113.5). Jacobs, fresh off a 1,329-yard season, ranks just 15th in the NFL this year with 648 yards.

The result has been a roller-coaster ride. The Packers are capable of explosive performances — 489 yards in a 40-40 tie in Dallas; 454 yards in a 35-25 win in Pittsburgh. But they’re also capable of duds, like their 230-yard effort in a 13-10 loss in Cleveland, or their Monday night game two weeks ago at home against the Eagles when they had just 261 yards and didn’t score their lone points until a Jacobs touchdown run with 5:49 left in the game.

“All the ingredients are there,” the scout said. “Jacobs is one of the best backs in the league. That running game is hard to stop. Love has all the skills — poise, arm strength, ability to throw on the run. Like I said, the weapons aren’t great, but there’s enough there to make it work. And I’ve always loved LaFleur’s scheme and mind.

“They should be better than they are.”

And they think they will be — at least eventually. Though Watson acknowledged, “We’ve got a ways to go” and time is running out.

“Little by little, I’d say we are chipping away at the details we want to reinforce and get clean,” Rhyan said. “I mean we never flinched this year, even with those couple games where I know everybody wants them back. We knew exactly what we needed to do.”

“I think we’re taking steps there, every single week,” Watson added. “In terms of the caliber of the team we want to be, the caliber of the offense we want to be, we want to get to that highest level possible. So we’ve just got to continue to get a little bit better every week.

“And if we do that, I think we’ll get to where we want to be.”

The defense, which ranks sixth in the NFL, has held up its end of the bargain. Unlike most years, whether Green Bay lives up to its “Titletown” moniker will likely come down to its offense. 

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.