Current Affairs

How did the redistricting battle spark dozens of midterm campaigns across the country?



President Donald Trump’s national redistricting battle has cast a long shadow over the race for control of Congress next year, not only fundamentally shifting the House battleground, but also creating a domino effect that funnels new candidates into new seats, knocking out longtime members of Congress and exposing deep political divisions in state parties across the country.

The fight is still playing out across Trump’s courtrooms, backrooms and social media, as Republicans and Democrats juggle district lines. Developments like this week’s federal court ruling blocking new Texas maps from taking effect — leaving the Supreme Court’s final decision — also show how much remains to be decided in the redistricting battle.

The fight began when Trump began pushing Texas Republicans to redraw district lines in hopes of gaining up to five seats for the party in the state, and later began pressuring leaders in other GOP-controlled states.

The new lines add more Republicans to the battleground districts in South Texas represented by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, redraw two districts in Houston and Dallas in a way that is likely to force incumbent Democrats into primaries against each other, and redraw Austin to create one deep blue seat and an additional Republican-leaning seat extending toward San Antonio.

But the fate of those plans is at stake after a federal court blocked the implementation of the map and called for holding elections in 2026 similar to last year’s elections. The Supreme Court’s final decision on whether to uphold that ruling will have a major impact on a series of races, starting with whether Austin-area Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett decides to retire.

There’s also the question of whether the winner of the January special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner will have to run immediately against a longtime Democratic incumbent, and how Democratic Reps. Mark Veazey, Julie Johnson and Jasmine Crockett deal with a potential major redrawing in North Texas that could leave one of their own out of a job. The redistricting plan has Crockett already considering a Senate bid.

The Democrats’ retaliatory California map — a similarly overt partisan redrawing explicitly aimed at undoing GOP gains in Texas — has similar potential to upend the caucus there. The districts of GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kelly, Ken Calvert and David Valadao have become more vulnerable to being flipped by Democrats, according to an analysis from Instagram. University of Virginia Center for Politics.

One early fallout: Calvert’s decision to seek re-election in a neighboring district currently represented by fellow Republican Rep. Yong Kim, which will likely lead to a costly primary between two leading candidates. In an early show of force, Kim has already announced plans to spend more than $3 million on advertising before the 2026 primaries.

Both states also share another dynamic: State lawmakers who voted to draw new congressional lines jump into new competitive congressional races.

In Texas, Republican state representatives said. Brisco Cain and John Logan They announced their campaigns shortly after the new lines were passed, seeking to run for the new majority Republican seats in the Houston and San Antonio areas. Others may be considering bidding as well, including state Rep. Katrina Pierson, D-Calif She told CBS News Texas last month that she was “thinking.” An attempt to redraw a district in North Texas.

There has been less traffic in California, where lines are only weeks old. But one notable example is Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire, a party leader who faces term limits in the body She announced plans to confront LaMalfa.

Small map changes in other states had big impacts as well.

In Missouri, where opponents of the GOP-led redistricting are mobilizing a petition drive that could put the issue in the hands of voters in the upcoming special election, Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s more than 30-year career in public life is in jeopardy after GOP lawmakers packed his district with Republican voters.

And in Utah, a court decision to enact a new map over Republican protests created a new blue seat in the Salt Lake City area — one that could Provoking a primary election that focuses on ideology as well as electabilityThis is an unusual position for Utah’s Democratic minority.

And in Ohio, it strengthened the battleground seat compromise map for Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes — in exchange for placing more Republican voters in districts controlled by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman. Sykes’ last GOP opponent, whom she narrowly defeated in 2024, was running again but withdrew from the 2026 campaign after the new map was released. Blame the settlement for his decision.

In North Carolina, the new lines of the Republican Legislature make it more difficult for Democratic Rep. Don Davis to be re-elected. Even as he continues to point He will continue trying to remain in office.

Meanwhile, as incumbents and challengers face pressures and opportunities from new maps, pressure on state legislatures to participate in the redistricting battle on behalf of their national party has also caused significant tensions between powerful lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

In Indiana, a lack of Republican support for redistricting efforts there led Trump to issue harsh criticism of the state’s GOP leaders, accusing them of “depriving Republicans of the majority in the House, which is a very big deal,” and saying he would support primary challenges against them. A Republican legislative leader was the victim of a beating at his home hours later.

And in Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is moving ahead with a redistricting commission — even as the state’s top Senate Democrat continues to criticize the idea of ​​redrawing the state’s congressional maps after a court struck down a Democratic plan to take more blue seats out of the state just a few years ago.

“What kind of country do we want to be? And who are we in this moment when things are so fragile and tense. Do we reflect a different value to show the path forward as nations, or do we fight to the death one election at a time?” State Senate President Bill Ferguson told NBC News why he’s holding on to pressure to move forward with Democratic-led redrawing there.

Even in states where redistricting efforts were successful, some lawmakers have raised alarms about their parties’ behavior.

“There is nothing conservative about using our supermajority to seize more power,” Missouri Republican Rep. Bryant Wolfin, who voted against redrawing there, said in a speech this summer before his party passed the new lines.

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