What’s next: How does a Trent Gresham trade impact the Yankees, free agents

Yankees manager Aaron Boone calls Trent Grisham “The Big Sleep” for his tempered and straight-faced demeanor in clutch moments. During the season, the team even sported T-shirts with Grisham’s new nickname during batting practice.  

It’s not surprising that Trent Grisham accepted the Yankees’ one-year, $22 million qualifying offer to play a third season in pinstripes. But it was at least eyebrow-raising that the outfielder decided not to test a thin market this winter, where he was expected to land a multi-year deal given his prime age and breakout season at the plate.

The 29-year-old outfielder has become a steady presence in the Yankees clubhouse since the Padres traded him to New York, alongside Juan Soto, ahead of the 2024 season. He’s tight with team captain Aaron Judge, with both players maintaining a calm and even-keeled composure throughout the long and grueling baseball season. 

Grisham’s return means that the Yankees aren’t confident that their prospects are ready to take the next step as everyday contributors at the major-league level. Grisham also gives the team a parachute in case it does not sign a top free-agent outfielder this winter. 

Here’s what’s next after Grisham’s new deal:

What’s Next for New York

For those concerned that Grisham’s salary will prevent the Yankees from spending money elsewhere, that is unlikely to be the case. The Yankees are projected to have a 2026 luxury tax payroll of just over $284 million, which would put them in the top penalty tier for the fourth consecutive season. There’s more work to be done, and they should still be swinging big this offseason. 

After the reunion with Grisham, the Yankees are projected to have the sixth-best center-field production in MLB next year, and they’re not done. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has said that Grisham accepting the one-year qualifying offer doesn’t hamper his ability to go after outfielder Cody Bellinger. 

But the thing is, if Bellinger does return to the Bronx, there’s added uncertainty surrounding the team’s developing outfielders, Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones (No. 4 overall top prospect). It’s hard to imagine a world in which Bellinger, Grisham, and Aaron Judge are patrolling the outfield and Dominguez/Jones are still on the 40-man roster. In that scenario, expect a trade to be made.

If Bellinger signs elsewhere, then it’s more likely the Yankees open spring training with Dominguez and Jones competing for the open left-field job. Of course, New York is still keeping tabs on top free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker, too. If the team makes any outside addition to the outfield, Dominguez or Jones could be on the move. 

What’s Next For Grisham

The lefty-swinging center fielder enjoyed a career year this past season, swatting 34 home runs with the majority of those coming from the leadoff spot, setting the table for Judge & Co. to do the rest of the damage.  Since Grisham bet on himself with the one-year deal, he’s under pressure next year to prove his breakout season at the plate wasn’t just a fluke. 

The Yankees believe Grisham can repeat a 30-homer season, and his left-handed swing is a perfect match against the backdrop of Yankee Stadium’s short porch. More than that, Grisham has excelled offensively after stepping away from Petco Park. This year, he boasted a career-best walk rate of 14.1% to go with a career-best strikeout rate of 23.6%. His exit velocity jumped up a few notches. He recorded the second-best wRC+ (129) in the majors across all qualified center fielders, behind only Twins slugger Byron Buxton. 

As long as Grisham doesn’t drastically regress next year, the Yankees should be happy he’s back, and he’ll be setting himself up for an even bigger payday. Next offseason, Grisham won’t have the qualifying offer restricting his options. And with no draft-pick compensation attached, a contender could realistically push a $100-million contract across the table next winter. 

What’s Next For The Outfield Market

Grisham coming off the board diminishes what was already a weak outfield market, particularly in center field. Though Bellinger is still considered the top free-agent center fielder on the market, this year he played the least amount of games in the middle of the diamond, logging more innings in left and right field, as well as several games at first base. 

After Bellinger, there’s 32-year-old Harrison Bader, 31-year-old Cedric Mullins, and then an enormous drop-off in talent among free-agent center fielders. And even within the top-end of that group, Bader is viewed as a part-time center fielder, and Mullins was worse than league average at the plate this past season. 

So Grisham’s departure from free agency was a huge detriment to teams seeking a center field piece, which includes the Mets, Phillies, Tigers, and Astros. Now, some of these contenders will have to get creative through trades or in-house promotions to fill that need.

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.