In the middle: British companies regain the repercussions of Trump’s World Trade War International Trade
“We are at risk at the present time,” says Fiona Connor, the administrative director of TRUST Electric Heating, a LEEDS, which was studying the expansion of the US market.
After an unexpectedly unpredictable start to Donald Trump’s second state as an American president, Connor is concerned that their options may be limited, as companies all over the UK for a global trade war.
Business leaders hope that Britain will be able to avoid the collection of the American tariff, but experts warn that the fragmentation of the international trading matter will still have a chilling effect on a small and relatively open economy like the United Kingdom. With the highlight of this risk, Trump’s tariff by 25 % on the steel and aluminum announced this week – including the UK exporters – can reach the British industry severely when it comes into effect in early March.
As the owner of a fast -growing company, Connor has been going back and forth between Leeds and New York in recent months, as it is building ties in the world’s largest economy to sell award -winning electrical radiators in the world.
“Now with this introductory threat, I hope Keir Starmer will put his big pants and have some strong negotiation skills. I will get there, I am looking into white [Trump’s] Eyes, shake his hand and accomplish this deal. “
The United States is the largest individual trading partner in the United Kingdom, in a relationship With a value of 300 billion pounds per year. Most of them in services, to a large extent, include banks, law firms and accounts in the city of London and in Wall Street, which are not subject to definitions. The total foreign direct investment between the two countries is more than one million pounds.
British goods exports – dominated by cars, medical and pharmaceutical products, mechanical energy generators and scientific tools – were 58 billion pounds in the year until the end of September 2024. The goods imported from the United States were less than 2 billion pounds, led by oil, led by oil, and generators .
Since Trump targets allies and enemies alike with the customs tariff, the Starmer government has sought the batch to the president, while rebuilding relations with the European Union after Britain’s exit from the European Union. Prime Minister Trump is scheduled to visit later this month, while UK ministers preferred the White House this week by joining the United States in refusing to sign the artificial intelligence agreement at the Paris Summit.
Often it draws the attention of a softer tone than other world leaders, some economists believe that the strategy of Starmer can bear fruit, as Britain’s independence is used after Britain’s exit from the European Union to negotiate trade with the United States, the European Union and China. However, others warn Britain outside the European Union in a weaker position, and will eventually need to choose a side.
“The size of the British economy, and its high openness to trade means that if it is under pressure to its ability to take revenge in a definitely limited way,” says Reese Davis, the former government commercial advisor, now at the Consulting Company, Flint Globe.
“While the United Kingdom will look forward to preparing counter -measures that are carefully paid to the maximum political influence – and strengthening the broader trade relations – the best hope is flying under the radar while Trump looks at countries that the United States suffer from a fixed trade deficit.”
Trump has greatly focused on Canada, Mexico and China, which is much more to the United States than it imports. Britain has a more balanced trade relationship with the United States.
Starmer can also depend on Quirk statistical. American figures have shown that it has a surplus in merchandise trade with the United Kingdom of about $ 12 billion (9.6 billion pounds), but the UK reported a surplus with the United States about 2 billion pounds. the National Statistics Office Partially blaming the regional definitions, with American data, including crown dependencies, unlike the United Kingdom.
However, business leaders are still concerned about the danger of a distinguished turn by the American president. Research conducted by British Chambers shows that 63 % of manufacturers believe that exports will be affected by American definitions.
Another company that finds itself directly in the Fire line is Technologies Europlaz, an Essex -based manufacturer of high -resolution products in the medical devices industry. The US market is the largest destination for export in the UK Scientific tools, at a value of 3 billion pounds in 2023.
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Rorre Ociv, the business manager at Europlaz Technologies, says that Trump’s “hambhammer” can lead to a “commercial earthquake” of his company.
“Three of our largest customers enjoy a severe presence in the United States, and many of our customers in the United Kingdom depend on the American market for the lion’s share of their sales. The truth is that the customs tariff means higher costs and high costs means high prices, and decreasing competitiveness.”
Ed Davi, the liberal democratic leader, urged Starmer on Wednesday to impose a “Tesla tariff” if Trump made plans to strike the United Kingdom’s steel industry.
“Sitting and hope is that Yarb will not only harm us. It will not only succeed. The only way we can treat Trump and [Elon] Musk by negotiating the position of power and shows that the UK will not be intimidated from all over the blessing.
Even if the UK can avoid specific definitions, experts warn that the broader slowdown in international trade will harm the United Kingdom. Global supply chains mean that UK companies can still be exposed to the US tariff for other countries – such as shipping companies to Mexico or the European Union, which are used to make the final products exported to the American market.
“The slowdown in other regions that can have a greater impact on the United Kingdom, rather than the same effective definitions,” says Anthony Operation, head of the market strategy at the Phoenix Group.
How the UK responds can also be important. Starmer freestyle specialists urged non -revenge if Trump is targeting Britain, arguing that although exporters in the United Kingdom will strike, British consumers will avoid high prices for US goods.
However, such a result will reach the UK economy. The Bank of England, who is closely monitoring the situation, warned that anything not contrary to global trade is bad for growth. Business investment can be placed on ice, while American definitions on other countries, including China – the largest source in the world – can lead to the transfer of their products to Britain, and the market is immersed.
John Glen, chief economist at the Charterd Institute for purchase and supply, says Britain is in a narrow place. “We have the opportunity [post-Brexit] To stand alone and negotiate an agreement with Trump. Will you be ready to do this? I don’t know. Will we be in a strong position to negotiate? i don’t think so. You can act as a mediator between the European Union and the United States, a lot.