Patrick Surtain II takes over as NFL Defensive Player of the Year
Typically, the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year is determined somewhat by sacks. These are the statistics that get voters’ attention.
Patrick Surtain II has been so good at cornerback for the Denver Broncos, it might be hard to deny that he’s got the award.
The betting market has turned to Surtain. Surtain has taken over as the preferred candidate for DPOY At BetMGM Which is a very big step up over TJ Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Surtain has been a huge star in a Broncos defense that is one win away from a playoff berth. It’s not unprecedented but rare for a cornerback to win Defensive Player of the Year. Given Surtain’s impressive play over the course of the season, he would be a great pick for the award, even though he doesn’t have any sacks.
Patrick Surtain II is DPOY’s new favorite
Watt was the favorite for much of the second half of the season, but that has changed. And now Surtain has a big lead.
Surtain is -210 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at BetMGM. Watt is second at +175. No other player is shorter than 18 to 1, making it a two-man race with Denver’s star corner clearly ahead.
Surtain’s argument is pretty easy: he shuts down almost everyone he encounters. Despite traveling with most teams’ No. 1 receivers, Surtain allowed 33 catches for 279 yards all season According to Next Generation statistics. Passer rating for opposing quarterbacks when he is targeted is 56. The worst passer rating of any quarterback this season with 200+ attempts is Anthony Richardson at 61.6. This means that when QBs target Surtain, they essentially turn him into the worst passer in the NFL based on his rating allowed in coverage.
Here’s another metric that shows Surtain’s dominance: In Next Gen Stats EPA coverage (expected points added), Surtain’s mark is -25.6 in coverage. This is the best among all cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage statistics. For those who love Focus on professional footballSurtain is the highest paid cornerback in the NFL this season.
Award winners often need a spotlight on their signing, and Surtain had a big role in the Broncos’ season. In Week 5, they trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 10-3 and the Raiders were driving when Surtain had a 100-yard pick-6.
All season Surtain has been a solid player and the best player on a team that is 9-7 and needs another win to secure a playoff spot. He may receive a major award to prove his superiority, and he will be deserving of it.
Surtain will be the seventh corner to win
It’s hard for a cornerback to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. If a cornerback is having a stellar season, it usually means that he spends most of the game without being attacked. This is difficult to measure, although it improves with advanced statistics.
Pass rushers usually win. Another Broncos cornerback, Champ Bailey, had a nearly perfect 2006 season but lost DPOY to Jason Taylor, who had 13.5 sacks. This is one example of neglecting angles. However, there were six cornerbacks to win it. The most recent was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Mel Blunt (1975), Lester Hayes (1980), Rod Woodson (1993), Deion Sanders (1994), and Charles Woodson (2009) were the others.
The movement toward Surtain got a boost last week. He guarded Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is on pace to win the NFL’s Triple Crown, on 43 of 56 coverage snaps. Chase had just three catches for 27 yards when Surtain covered it, Via ESPN’s Benjamin Solak. Surtain didn’t have any interceptions or surprise plays, but that’s the kind of impressive performance that should be rewarded.
Watt is a great player and has had another great season. But Surtain’s dominance is worthy of the NFL’s highest defensive award.