Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction, odds, CFP National Championship spread, game time, where to watch on TV
Then there were two. The inaugural 12-team tournament College football The playoff is scheduled to crown a national champion on Monday as No. 7 Notre Dame will take on No. 8 Ohio State at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
This will be the ninth meeting of the two College football Most Popular Programs It marks the third straight season the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish will face off — the longest such streak in the series’ relatively short history. Ohio State and Notre Dame completed a home-and-home series in 2023 when the Buckeyes rolled into South Bend, Indiana, and came away with a 17-14 victory.
Notre Dame has not beaten Ohio State since 1936. The Fighting Irish’s only wins in the series came in 1935 and 1936. It has become the entire state of Ohio ever since.
The two programs are no strangers to postseason play against each other. They met in the 2006 and 2016 Fiesta Bowls, with the Buckeyes winning both games.
Ohio State has been dominant in its CFP run. The Buckeyes won their first two games, including a decisive win over top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl, by a combined score of 83-38. In the Cotton Bowl semifinal against Texas, the Longhorns had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but a Jack Sawyer strip sack and subsequent 83-yard touchdown return secured a 28-14 win for Ohio State.
Notre Dame delivered its own set of impressive performances. The Fighting Irish defeated Indiana by 10 points — leading by a larger margin for most of the game — in the first round, then beat SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They capped their run with a last-second field goal to seal a 27-24 victory over Penn State in the Orange Bowl, becoming the first program in college football history to win two bowl games in the same season.
CBS Sports experts have provided their picks for the College Football Playoff National Championship. Here’s what to expect.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Need to know
Can Smith get back on track?: Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith was held back against Texas, finishing with just one reception for three yards. It was the first time all season he failed to record multiple receptions in a game and only the third time he was held to fewer than 50 yards.
The Longhorns used multiple strategies to slow him down. They clogged passing lanes with defensive linemen and linebackers while bracketing Smith in double coverage with cornerbacks and safeties. Notre Dame now has a fresher tape to study in its effort to contain one of college football’s leading playmakers. However, Ohio State has an equal amount of time to adjust, setting up an interesting chess match.
Entering the semifinals, Smith had recorded 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State’s first two playoff games.
The list of injuries at Notre Dame is growing: Notre Dame has overcome significant injuries to get to this point. The Fighting Irish were without starting defensemen Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traoré, starting offensive lineman Ashton Craig, and potential first-round pick NFL Draft Cornerback Benjamin Morrison since October.
In their first-round win over Indiana, Riley Mills — the team’s leader in sacks — suffered a season-ending knee injury. Then, in the semifinal win over Penn State, starting left tackle Anthony Knapp suffered an injury that will keep him out of the national title game.
Adding to their challenges, leading edge rusher Jeremiah Love, has been dealing with a nagging knee injury. However, he played through it against the Nittany Lions and is expected to be available for the game with the Buckeyes.
Defensive battle on tap: The CFP title game will feature two of the best defenses in the country. Ohio State (12.2 points per game) and Notre Dame (14.3 ppg) rank first and second nationally in scoring defense, respectively.
The Buckeyes have not allowed more than 21 points in the CFP, while the Fighting Irish have given up just 27 points in their first two playoff games. Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in total defense. Ohio State and Notre Dame rank first and second respectively in pass defense and first (Notre Dame) and third (Ohio State) in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
How to watch Ohio State vs. Notre Dame live
date: Monday, January 20 | time: 7:30 PM ET
location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
television: ESPN | Live broadcast: Fubo (Try for free)
Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction, picks
Odds via Sportsline Consensus
Spread: Ohio State -8.5 | Money line: Ohio State -368, Notre Dame +289 | S/sh: 46.5
Dennis Dodd: Ohio State deserves every bit of the love it gets – top wide receiver, best quarterback in the playoffs, and No. 1 defense in the country, but something is bothering me. In fact, the Sharks upset the bet. The line favoring Ohio State has gone from 9.5 to 8.5, indicating that the spread was very large from the jump. I’ve said from the beginning that there is a path for ND to win this game if he can win the turnover battle and hold onto the ball for about 35 minutes. It could happen…but it probably won’t. The Irish will hang around long enough to make the Buckeyes sweat. Pick: Notre Dame +8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 17
Chip Patterson: Ohio State proved humane in the national semifinal, particularly on offense as the Buckeyes failed to pull away from Texas early and then found themselves facing overtime before defensive heroics at the goal line. But even with that game proving the Buckeyes won’t make the cut, I think Ohio State will be able to build a lead — and then defend it — in this game against Notre Dame. The resilience of this Fighting Irish team tells us they’re certainly not poised for the crown, but while they can hang around, I think it’ll be a game that Ohio State mostly controls from start to finish. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 20
Tom Fornelli: The only team that has been able to stop Ohio State this season is Ohio State. Oregon didn’t stop them in Eugene, the Ducks just outshot them. Michigan didn’t stop the Buckeyes as much as Ohio State’s game plan and decision-making did. Notre Dame has been great since their inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois, but I don’t think the Irish offense is balanced enough to beat the Buckeyes. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 14
Shehan Jayaraja: Ohio State has assembled the best roster in college football this season, and they’ve finally reached their tremendous potential in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes have been better on offense and defense than the Irish and boast playmakers at every level of the court. To its credit, Notre Dame may be the best-coached team in the country and has capitalized on every mistake on its way to the title game. But against Ohio State, it won’t matter. The Buckeyes are better at almost every position and will cruise to their first national championship in a decade. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 13
David Cobb: Ohio State showed its full potential in strong wins over Tennessee and Oregon to start the College Football Playoff as it crushed two quality opponents with dominance on both sides of the football. Notre Dame’s run has centered on forcing turnovers, executing special teams, and making timely plays from a strong but not overly aggressive offense. The Fighting Irish are the most injury-depleted team and will have to walk a fine line to keep this one close late in the second half. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away late and wrap up a dominant playoff run with one last elite showing. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13
Will Backus: Notre Dame has done a great job of getting this far while struggling through a series of injuries, but I think this is the game catching up to them. The Fighting Irish have a distinct advantage along the line of scrimmage, as they likely have two starting offensive linemen — including left tackle Anthony Knapp — and three starting defensive linemen. That’s bad news against an Ohio State team that largely dominated the trenches during the College Football Playoff. Given the play of both defenses this year, I expect this to be a low-scoring, hard-hitting prospect until Ohio State’s depth allows it to eventually pull away a bit. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13
Jerry Palm: Notre Dame has been resourceful and resilient in this playoff game, and it has paid off well for the Irish. However, the best team in college football is Ohio State, which annihilated Tennessee and destroyed No. 1 Oregon State. The Buckeyes were challenged by Texas but rose to the occasion there as well. The Fighting Irish will live up to their name and put up a fight, but the best team in college football is still on the other side. It’s tough to pick against the Buckeyes. Pick: Ohio State -8.5 | Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 10
Brandon Marcelo: Ohio State’s run to the national championship has long seemed inevitable, but the path has not always been clear. I was there during the Buckeyes’ losses this season at Oregon and Michigan, and even in the fog of those disappointments, it was clear they were equipped to win a national title with the most skilled players in the sport and a defensive line. Capable of pushing any team beyond the breaking point. Then I watched Notre Dame up close in the Sugar Bowl, where a shorthanded team dictated the tempo and terms against Georgia. The Irish did it again in the second half against Penn State in the semifinals, rallying from a 10-point deficit.
The key to Notre Dame’s run has been Riley Leonard running plays in spurts with his legs and an opportunistic defense that gets the ball and forces turnovers. Ohio State is more talented than the Irish, but Marcus Freeman’s team is not accustomed to losing, motivated by its only loss in Week 2 to a struggling but mediocre Northern Illinois team. I’d like Notre Dame to be more in this matchup if left tackle Anthony Knapp was available — and if sack leader Riley Mills wasn’t out as well. Notre Dame still has the speed and power to slow down Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have too much firepower in this battle between the two top defenses in the country. Pick: Notre Dame +8.5 | Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 21.
Who wins Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, and which side of the spread hits it more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out, all from the model that has simulated this game 10,000 times.