Can a mechanic in Nebraska determine control of the Senate?

AThe most political With the events taking place in America, the arrival of the candidate is a big deal. The crowd builds, followers prepare, and eventually the chosen one sweeps into the center of attention. That’s not what happened when Dan Osborne, the independent Senate candidate for Nebraska, arrived at his event in Omaha on October 22 to discuss Social Security. Instead, he arrived early, then wandered back, looking like another member of the crowd. However, Osborne has ambitions to pull off one of the biggest upsets of this election: unseating the incumbent Republican nominee, Deb Fischer, in what should be one of the safest seats in America.

According to a poll conducted by the website The Economist According to YouGov, Osborne trails Fisher by eight points among those who support either candidate (see chart). This indicates that his chance of winning is slim. However, it cannot be completely ruled out. Another survey was conducted around the same time for New York Times He placed Mr Osborne just two points behind him. If this poll is correct, and ours is not, then Mr Osborne could determine which party has the majority in the Senate. Even if Ms. Fisher sneaks to victory, an Osbourne victory could matter. It proves that in less competitive states, a complacent incumbent can still be challenged in the Senate.

Mr. Osborne’s nomination had a strange origin. He entered the race last year after Mike Helmink, a union leader who intended to run himself, dropped out of the race after his employer refused to furlough him, recruiting Osborne instead. He initially courted the Democratic Party of Nebraska, which chose not to field a candidate, but after the deadline to announce the primary passed, he changed his mind and said he would run as an independent. This meant giving up the Democratic Party’s organizational and fundraising assistance, but allowed him to run his own campaign on his own platform.

It seems to be working. Unusually, both Senate seats in Nebraska rose this year. The other Republican candidate is Pete Ricketts, a member of the billionaire family that owns the Chicago Cubs baseball team. According to our poll, Mr. Ricketts leads his Democratic opponent by 18 points. This gives an idea of ​​how many Republicans Osborne is winning over.

Why is he okay? It helps that he comes across as a very ordinary Nebraskan. His only previous political experience was as a union leader who led a strike at the Kellogg plant in Omaha, where he worked as a machinist for 22 years. Before that, he served in the Navy and the Nebraska National Guard. He is running a clever campaign, attacking Ms. Fisher for supporting state business interests at the expense of ordinary Nebraskans. Super linked to the union Buck His support led to inexpensive ad buys in rural newspapers and on radio stations targeting voters in Ms. Fisher’s heartland with surprisingly detailed critiques of her vote.

However, his main appeal seems to be his independence. Ideologically, Osborne is eclectic. Like any union Democrat, he denounces billionaires, millionaires and special interests, and wants to raise taxes on high-income workers to save Social Security. But he is also highly critical of illegal immigration (which he sees as mostly designed by the employer class to keep wages low). Although he is pro-choice, he maintains that he is Catholic and personally opposes abortion. He sometimes compares himself to Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator-turned-independent from West Virginia. And his ads go further: one of his most recent images has Osborne voters accusing Ms. Fischer of stabbing Trump in the back.

Our poll shows that most Nebraskans expect him to vote with Democrats if he wins. Among those who say this, a large majority support Fisher. But 17% expect him to be a true supporter of both parties. These voters overwhelmingly support Mr Osborne, with 88% to 12% of those backing either candidate. This explains the approach taken by Ms. Fisher in response. Super Buck Which supports Senate Republicans, funneled money to the state to pay for ads suggesting that Osborne has ties to Bernie Sanders (the socialist senator from Vermont supported the strike at Kellogg). In an interview, Ms. Fisher said he was “not honest.” Her spokesman says he is a “convinced liberal Democrat.”

This message, and the partisan reactions of voters, must save her. But Osborne showed that Republicans can be vulnerable even in the reddest states. His success points to how Democrats suffer from a perception that they have “lost touch with the working class and look at working-class areas in a condescending way,” says Robin Johnson, of Monmouth College. Maybe the party should consider stepping aside in a few red states. ■

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