Can a “October surprise” corrupt the American elections?

IN October In the year of the presidential elections, American policy monitors gave the phrase “expecting unexpected” a new meaning. As a month has passed since the early vote began, the nerves began to be tense. Observers of opinion polls and critics are preparing for the story that will turn the competition upside down. The excitement of the “October Surprise” escalated. However, this phenomenon is usually a wet mockery.

In recent sessions, the opinion polls that took place at the beginning of October were remarkably similar to those in the last days of the election campaign. There are few strong examples of an unexpected story that affects the elections. However, this year’s elections are considered one of the most mysterious elections in modern history. The result may decrease to a few thousand votes in the swinging states.

The phrase “Surprise October” spread during the 1980 presidential elections, when Democrats hoped that the release of American hostages in Iran, who were detained in the aftermath of the revolution, would rescue President Jimmy Carter from the loss of his re -election. This surprise has never been achieved, and few have been achieved since then.

Even when there were unexpected fluctuations in October, only a little needle moved. It was not possible to have news of President Donald Trump’s entry into the hospital due to the Cofide – 19 in October 2020 – a month before the elections – more dramatic. However, his surveys fell less than 1.7 percentage points. By election day, these tests had returned to the same level as a month ago.

This stability can be seen through the date of polling. In the elections since 1948, the polls of the democratic candidate on the election day differed on average by only 1.4 degrees Celsius from the previous month. As polarization increases, opinion polls become more difficult. In the past five elections, the average movement was only 0.6 points (see the graph).

Of course, in a narrow race, even small movement can be important. On October 28, 2016, 11 days before the elections of that year, the FBI director, James Komei, reopened an investigation into the use of a special email server by the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. Although the influence on its position is a dispute, the intervention may not have been useful – after the news spread, its average survey decreased by 1.3 points. In elections decided by less than a hundred thousand voters in Pennsylvania, Weskonsen and Michigan, it is not difficult to conclude, as Mrs. Clinton did, that the notorious Komei message could have changed her course.

It seems that the elections this year may be close to the same extent. Although President Kamala Harris is advancing at the level of the country by about 2.9 points, she may face difficulties in the electoral complex, as Mrs. Clinton did. Our expectations indicate that the democratic candidate is currently 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, which means that the shift in opinion polls in October is less than the average can lead to the weighting of the elections in favor of its opponent Donald Trump.

There is a lot of news that can flip this exact balance upside down: an escalating war in the Middle East, hurricanes in the south, and to vaporize Trump’s alleged intervention in the elections. But the margin is so small that the elections may also depend on a mistake. While the opinion of the opinion of the Democratic candidate moved with an average of 0.6 points in the last month of the last elections, his average mistake in the poll was 1.1 points. No one can guess who can benefit from such a mistake this time.

Our presidential expectations, which determine these sources of uncertainty, give Mrs. Harris a 54% chance to win the elections, compared to 46% for Trump – a weighted opportunity. As the elections approach this extent, there is no need to expect what is unexpected. ■

Keep a knowledge of the American policy with the we In short, our daily news message that includes a rapid analysis of the most important electoral stories, controls and balance, a weekly memorandum from the writer of our column in Lexington deals with the state of American democracy and issues of concern to voters.