A city-by-city snapshot of huge political change in one key country — and what it means in 2025, 2026 and beyond
New Jersey achieved some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election. Now, these shifts are setting the table for a fiercely contested gubernatorial race this year — and big questions nationally about where communities like this go in future elections.
For starters, President Donald Trump’s rise in 2024 among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area surprised much of the political world. But questions remain about whether Republicans can maintain this alliance over the long term.
An analysis of New Jersey’s municipal election results, combined with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, provides a detailed demographic and geographic snapshot of where support for Democrats and Republicans grew fastest in recent elections. By examining changes since 2012 – the last presidential election without Trump on the ballot – a clear picture emerges of shifting party alliances.
Support for Trump has exploded in densely populated, non-white, formerly industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy and Passaic in the New York City metro area. Republican growth, which had been developing slowly since 2012, will rise significantly in 2024.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have found increasing strength in New Jersey’s coastal cities, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and places popular among retirees.
These communities will become critical laboratories going forward, to test whether this 12-year political reorganization can continue after Trump.
But the picture will never be clear, and different political figures often encourage different political outcomes. Republican Jack Schiattarelli’s previous bid for New Jersey governor in 2021 produced a close race — but he did so with a coalition that looked much different than the one that would shape for Trump in 2024.
The bigger question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a permanent shift in state (and national) politics or are merely a Trump phenomenon. These communities provide a testing ground for the answer.
The biggest shifts toward the Democrats
Biggest transformations since 2012
More than half of the roughly 331 residents of this residential beach town, located two miles south of the terminus on NJ Transit’s Jersey Shore train line, work in finance or management jobs. The number of residents working from home is also well above the state average: 45% in Mantoloking, compared to 13% statewide. The median household income was $484,326, and the median sales price of the 10 homes sold in this area in 2024 was $4.8 million.
It is still a Republican district, but not to the same extent as before Trump, exemplifying the shifts among wealthier and more educated voters.
This location is perhaps most famous to New Jersey residents for its shopping center called The Mall at Short Hills. Originally opened in 1961 with the slogan “5th Avenue in the Suburbs,” the mall and surrounding area have evolved into that ambitious billing.
Today, the median household income in Short Hills is $512,637, the second highest in the state. Among residents 25 and older, 60% have advanced degrees, the highest percentage for any place of this size in the state. Asian residents make up 38% of the population, half of whom are American Indian.
Biggest transformations since 2016
This is another small beach town, and it’s as far as you can get on the Jersey Shore – at the southern tip of the Jersey Peninsula. Almost all of the shops and restaurants are located in the larger town of Cape May, 10 minutes to the east, but this mostly residential community has a large population of older individuals, with the average age being 70.9 years. The homes are valued at $1.4 million and are among the top 10 places in South Jersey.
Located on the banks of the Delaware River in western New Jersey, Frenchtown is a quaint river town and popular day-trip destination known for its art galleries and shops. The 70-mile Delaware and Raritan Canal Trail, which begins just north of town, is popular with walkers and bikers alike. A narrow bridge connects Frenchtown to rural Bucks County, Pennsylvania — Itself a county of lasting importance in Pennsylvania politics.
One in 10 Frenchtown residents work in “arts, design, entertainment, sports and media occupations,” the second highest concentration in the state. (In recent years, Elizabeth Gilbert, author of Eat, Pray, Love, lived and owned a store in the city.) Among the adult population, 41% of whites have college degrees or higher, which is higher than the average of 27% in New Jersey overall.
The biggest shifts since 2020
Avalon has long been a wealthy port city: Ed McMahon He often talked about his weekends there on “The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson.” Avalon is now the state’s fifth-oldest in population, with a median age of 74.1 years. The average home sale price in Avalon last year was $2.8 million.
A retirement community in South Jersey, this planned development was under active construction from 1971 to 1986. Leisuretowne has grown to 2,255 homes, and the current median age is 72.5 years.
The biggest shifts toward Republicans
Biggest transformations since 2012
This largely industrial neighborhood lies below the Governor Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, one of the widest bridges in the world with 15 lanes. Access to the Garden State Parkway, I-95 and the Outerbridge Crossing, which connects New Jersey to New York, makes it especially attractive to large, distribution-based companies. FedEx hosts a distribution center here, as does Wakefern Food Corp., best known for its ShopRite subsidiary.
Primarily Polish and Hungarian, this neighborhood has seen the third-highest Latino population growth in the state over the past two decades, rising from 38% of the population in 2000 to 71% of the population in 2020. The median household income here is $91,696, lower than the statewide figure of $140,299.
A brand-new, 5-acre waterfront park opened earlier this year in this small city on the Passaic River — a major step in the revitalization of this industrial area in the shadow of Newark. The Clark Thread Company, once the nation’s largest thread manufacturer, had a large campus here, with the facility being the main area flagged for redevelopment.
Two-thirds of the population in East Newark is Hispanic/Latino. The majority do not have US citizenship and speak Spanish at home, according to census data. It has the largest Peruvian population and the fifth-largest Ecuadorian population by share in the United States
Biggest transformations since 2016
Home to the sixth-largest Latino population in the state, 73% of Passaic’s 70,000 residents are of Hispanic or Latino descent. Passaic also boasts the largest Mexican population in the state. The city, with a large immigrant population, is working-class: 33% of its adult population has not graduated from high school, compared to 9% statewide.
Heading south from downtown and toward the Passaic Park neighborhood, you’ll find a large Orthodox Jewish population. While official numbers on religious adherence are not kept at the municipal level, Passaic likely has one of the largest Orthodox Jewish populations in New Jersey. Brook Haven Mall, which describes itself as “the largest kosher mall in the United States,” opened its doors in 2021, a testament to the size of the Jewish population in the immediate area.
Elizabeth, the fourth largest city in New Jersey, is an active transit hub for the New York metropolitan area. The city hosts parts of Newark Liberty International Airport, one of the region’s three major airports, and the Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the busiest container ports in the world. The Goethals Bridge also connects Elizabeth directly to Staten Island, making it a major link between New Jersey and New York City.
Like the population of East Newark, more than half the population here was not born in the United States, and nearly two-thirds of the population here speaks Spanish.
The biggest shifts since 2020
Perth Amboy’s unique clay foundation has made it a capital Clay production on the East Coast At the beginning of the nineteenth century. Detailed terracotta facades adorned buildings across the city, and the work of the Perth Amboy Terra Cotta Company became a staple of the elegant skyscrapers built in Manhattan at the time, from the Woolworth Building to the Flatiron Building. The Great Depression caused a sudden evaporation of the clay industry, and the ensuing decades reinvented Perth Amboy.
The city is now 81% Latino, the third highest percentage of anywhere in the state. Half of its Latino population is of Dominican descent, among the highest concentrations anywhere in the country.
The third largest city in New Jersey is a melting pot. It has the largest Dominican population outside of New York City and Lawrence, Massachusetts, and the neighborhood of Little Lima has the largest Peruvian population outside of Peru. Mayor Paterson announced The city is America’s “capital of Palestine” due to its large Palestinian population as well, and its broader Muslim population probably represents at least a third of the city’s composition.
Meanwhile, Paterson is a city in transition, with a quarter of its residents living in poverty, according to census data, and some of the highest crime rates in the state on a per capita basis.