A recent special election bodes well for Democrats
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IIt was the Republicans On the verge of experiencing a breakthrough among black voters, as some polls have suggested, New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District (which includes Newark) might be a place to start. About half of its population is black. But in the September 18 special election to fill the county’s vacant house seat, the Democratic candidate, LaMonica McIver, won in a landslide. She defeated her opponent 81% to 16% — a larger margin than President Joe Biden managed there in 2020.
It’s no shock that the Democrat wins in the deep blue district. But the result is the latest in a string of strong scores for Democrats in special elections. That metric could corroborate recent polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris’s party backing away, or just confirm Democrats’ popularity among the few bipartisan voters, who reliably show up in out-of-session elections.
In previous presidential campaigns, special elections did not convey much of a message about the contest at the top of the ticket (at least, nothing could be gleaned from a poll). But in congressional elections, which have relatively few polls, the results could be revealing. In 17 House elections since 1990, the party that performed best in the interim elections went on to win the popular vote 13 times (see chart). Moreover, special elections provide a valuable complement to opinion polls, because they are not influenced by survey methods. Combining them with opinion polls gives much more accurate predictions than either indicator on its own.
This portentous power is one reason why the 2022 House elections, in 2022, Economic Expect fewer Republican seats than some other forecasts. Democrats faced an uphill battle to defend control of Congress. Although Mr. Biden’s approval rating, indicating a “red wave,” polling suggested a narrow Republican victory, Democrats’ strong showing in the special election pushed our expectations toward a closer outcome. Republicans won 222 seats, four more than the minimum majority and well below expectations.
This year Democrats are doing better in special elections. To estimate their performance, we compare both parties to a “benchmark” for each poll, based on the most recent regularly scheduled election result for the same seat. In New Jersey’s 10th District, Ms. McIver beat her record vote share by three percentage points. A moving average of these scores, with greater weight for federal elections than local elections, gives Democrats a 3.3-point edge. Such an advantage will give the party a boost in our upcoming congressional elections forecast.
There are reasons to be skeptical. In recent years, Democrats have found greater support among college-educated voters, who are more likely to switch to off-cycle elections. In the general election, the party will have no advantage. This may explain why Democrats fare worse in the 2020 and 2022 general elections than you’d expect from the special elections alone. The Republican nominee, Donald Trump, has shown that he can mobilize less engaged and uneducated voters. These voters may not opt out in a temporary contest, but they are likely to support his colleagues in Congress if he can impress them at the ballot box.
Although this dynamic complicates the picture, the results of the special election should prevail for Democrats. With less than six weeks left in the race, landslide winning parties are favored. ■
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