Abigail Spanberger thinks Democrats need to listen more

Every four years, a familiar pattern emerges in Virginia, where governors are limited to one term at a time, and elections are held twelve months after the last presidential election. A semi-substantial campaign erupts, but the outcome is driven by the national mood. Only once in the past half-century has the president’s party won the governor’s mansion in Richmond. Unlike in New Jersey — where Spanberger’s old congressional colleague, Mikie Sherrill, is running in the state’s other gubernatorial race this fall — in Virginia, the outsider always wins, and anything that person does is considered a national model for the party. So it’s only natural for Spanberger to assert that her case for political moderation deserves a serious look, perhaps a little tired of all the attention Mamdani has been getting. As Election Day approaches, Spanberger, an affable but hard-working activist, is leading in her race by a wider margin than any candidate in her state’s recent history. Republicans tried to drag Spanberger down by hyping up the case of Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, who was found to have sent text messages three years ago fantasizing about killing the GOP state House speaker. Spanberger condemned him but did not call on him to withdraw from the race. However, Earl Sears – a Jamaican immigrant and social conservative who recently insisted, in a debate, that not providing protections for people in same-sex marriage “is not discrimination” – has run a mostly confusing and underfunded campaign. (Donald Trump recently supported it, only half-heartedly.)

Spanberger’s lead has given her the opportunity to run a straight Democratic campaign focused largely on the cost of living in her state. For optimists, this is a line that connects candidates as disparate as Spanberger and Mamdani. Tim Kaine, a Democratic senator from Virginia, noted that both are younger than their predecessors and are emphasizing the issue of affordability. But in the final stretch of the race, Spanberger seemed keen to emphasize the realism of her approach, in her telling. “This is what I will do a job To do, right? “I won’t make promises I can’t keep, but I will work tirelessly to deliver,” she said. “There’s no magic bullet to lower housing costs, but it takes intent and a plan to work with the General Assembly to change some of our laws to increase the supply of housing, to have a governor’s office and an administration focused on developing a long-term plan to lower costs, right?” Healthcare is the same, you can’t just wave a magic wand and fix the system.

“If you’re just talking sticky statements or whatever fits the caucus sign, you’re actually belittling voters, or you’re making a promise you can’t keep,” she continued. “And I think that’s part of the reason why people’s trust in politics has deteriorated over time.”

Don Beyer, a Democratic congressman from northern Virginia, said his colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives had been watching Spanberger’s campaign as a glimmer of hope since the spring, as Trump’s control of the capital tightened. “Everyone was pointing out: ‘We know we can’t pass any legislation, we can only go to the courts, we can’t impeach him.’ But Abigail can win!” “Baer told me. He said he expects that if it does, it will help Democrats recruit stronger candidates for tough midterm races next year. Kaine said his Senate colleagues are watching the contest closely. But in Cain’s view, they are more cautious: “They view Virginia’s result as one that will either be a hope-maker nationally, or one that will pour some cold water on people who are already feeling a little down.”

Late last year, as Kaine was traveling across the state campaigning for a third term in the US Senate, he began to notice that something was missing in the messages he saw on hotel televisions and in media markets that overlapped with West Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina and Kentucky. “Other Democrats were running ads about preserving democracy, or about choice. Important issues, but they weren’t running ads about the economy, whereas Republicans were running ads about inflation,” he told me this fall. Kaine, who was elected governor of Virginia in 2005, before becoming Barack Obama’s first Democratic National Committee chairman and then Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential nominee in her bid for the presidency, has made a pointed point about his record on building roads, bridges and ships, and supporting offshore wind energy, and voters have been responding favorably. “It made me angry, because I thought Kamala Harris, as well as other Democrats, had economic things they could put at the forefront,” he said. Kaine won re-election comfortably in a dark November for Democrats, and soon after, he spoke with Spanberger about what he saw.

She didn’t need much convincing. She’s already been on this path for a year, using a version of basic economics and education first that has served her well in her three congressional races. (The 2020 redistricting round shifted much of its jurisdiction to northern Virginia, meaning it actually received votes from a large swath of the state.) Virginia’s current governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin, won his race in 2021 in part by warning of the dangers of “critical race theory.” When Earl Sears began trying to reignite a culture war against Spanberger, whom she accused of being a hard-leftist, Democrats largely shrugged it off and returned to their safe space: protecting payrolls, combating the effects of tariffs, and investing in rural hospitals. In the race’s only debate this fall, Spanberger mostly stared forward as Earl Sears repeatedly sought to get her to address the Jones scandal, sometimes turning from completely unrelated topics — such as the car tax — to try to force the issue. Spanberger sidestepped a series of moderators’ questions about transgender rights by mostly objecting and offering that local jurisdictions should make strict decisions about who can use which bathroom or play on which team.