As more states look to redistrict, California’s Proposition 50 looms large
As partisan redistricting efforts ramp up in states across America, the nation’s most populous state is poised to make the move. Next week, California voters will decide whether to approve a new congressional map that could result in five additional seats for Democrats in the US House of Representatives. Polls suggest the measure, known as Proposition 50, is likely to pass easily.
The new map will replace the nonpartisan map drawn by an independent commission, which Californians previously voted for. But in response to aggressive Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and other states, many Democrats here, including some committee members, now say the state needs to fight fire with fire.
It is a turn of events that does not bring happiness to Sara Sadhwani. But the Democratic member of California’s independent redistricting commission says she believes her state should work to mitigate GOP power grabs elsewhere. She says Democrats need to control the House of Representatives to put an end to President Donald Trump’s violations of the US Constitution.
Why did we write this?
Dozens of states are drawing new congressional district maps, or considering it, as Republicans and Democrats jockey for control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. These efforts could diminish the importance of individual voters.
Normally, congressional maps are redrawn every 10 years, based on new census data. But now, at least 12 states are either drawing or considering new maps. The movement started in AugustWhen President Trump urged Texas Republicans to create a new map to try to pick up five additional seats for his party in the US House of Representatives – in an attempt to weaken potential Democratic gains during the 2026 midterm elections. The new California map is expected to cancel out Texas’ gains.
The Texas Legislature simply drew and approved new districts. But California’s plan, which involves temporarily sidelining the independent redistricting commission, needs to be approved by voters on November 4.
With the GOP retaining only a six-seat majority in the House of Representatives, small gains for either party could matter. Republicans, encouraged by the White House, They have already redrawn the maps In North Carolina and Missouri as well as Texas to try to add seven more House seats to their column. last Red states, like Kansas, IndianaOhio and Utah could soon follow suit. Democrats are looking for ways to do the same virginia, illinois, New Yorkand Maryland.
Polls show that many Americans, in the abstract, Oppose partisan gerrymandering They consider it antithetical to democracy. But support for drawing maps without regard to partisan advantage breaks down when the other side is seen as no longer playing fair. “People generally think that when the other side does that The rule was violated“You have to reciprocate,” says Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University.
In early August, before Texas passed its new map, Just over a third of California residents said they support the idea of redrawing congressional boundaries in their state; Poll results were released on Friday Support now appears at 60%. The ballot measure became one of the most expensive races in state history, attracting national attention and funding. Democrats have It raised more than $138 million So far compared to $80 million for opponents.
Professor Sadhwani’s views reflect a broader sense here that extreme partisanship imposes poor choices on voters and weakens local authority as elections are nationalized. The rapid rise in Californians’ support for Proposition 50 reflects the influence of national political forces and dollars fueling the country’s partisan divide. Critics say it’s a vicious circle.
“The more gerrymandering, the less competitive the districts are, and the less important individual voters become,” he says. Chad peacelegal advisor to Independent Voter Projectwhich calls for nonpartisan election reform.
Local politics turns national
The redistricting race illustrates a new principle, says Professor Noel: All politics is no longer local. Because political power at the national level is directly tied to state congressional maps, he says, “national politics are now unavoidable at the state level.”
This is true in California, as a recent poll showed 75% of those who intend to vote yes In Proposition 50 they say they are doing this to oppose President Trump. In the same CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly two-thirds of voters, including Republicans, said they thought the president treated California worse than other states.
Democrats make up less than half (46%). Registered voters in CaliforniaWhile about a quarter (24%) are Republicans. The bulk of the remaining voters reported no party preference. State The current composition of Congress It already skews toward Democrats, who hold 43 of the state’s 52 House seats, plus the two Senate seats. Proposition 50 map Tends five other areas Towards the Democrats.
Republican Representative Vince Fong, who represents the Central California district, describes the new map as a “power grab.” He says Governor Gavin Newsom is eliminating the voice of rural communities by adding them to urban areas — all in pursuit of his political ambitions (Governor Newsom has confirmed that he will consider running for the White House in 2028).
Ventura County Republican Party Chairman Richard Lucas says the views of conservatives like his are effectively being silenced. He says that despite being born and raised in California, he feels unwelcome by the state’s large Democratic majority — and Proposition 50 would make that worse.
He says: “Two wrongs do not make a right.”
If Proposition 50 passes, it will be easier for blue states and red states to paint each other as “the enemy,” Professor Noel says. “That makes it difficult to think of a presidential campaign that is about trying to reach all 50 states, or a party that represents all 50 states.”
California “Rethink”
California is One of eight states Which has independent committees charged with drawing congressional districts. In 2008, voters approved the Citizens Redistricting Commission by a narrow margin: 51% to 49%. Initially, the commission drew the state’s legislative districts. Congressional districts were added two years later, when they also survived repeal, with 60% voting to keep them.
“Californians rethink things all the time,” says Professor Sadhwani, who studies politics at Pomona College. She adds that they agreed to form the committee in the same year that President Barack Obama won a landslide campaign victory on his message of “hope.” “If Californians don’t feel that hopeful in 2025, it’s okay for them to reconsider how they want to engage at the national level.”
the Current ballot proposal Designed to fit the moment; It is explicitly tied to Texas redistricting and the completion of the 2030 census, when the independent commission resumes its authority.
With these barriers in place, “Proposition 50 is a reasonable measure that allows voters to independently support redistricting and decide to stand up to this administration,” says Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party.
Representatives should consider their voters first and party second, says Mr. Pace of the Independent Voter Project. He adds that the conservative representative may help the state work with Republican leadership. But some states are seen as synonymous with their dominant political party, as is the case in California with Democrats and Texas with Republicans.
“It’s sad that we kind of traded the two issues,” he says.
Winner takes all system
Mr. Pace says the impact of gerrymandering on democracy could be devastating. As competition diminishes, political parties become less responsive to voters, leading to lower participation. “In fact, in the long run, that’s why you see people having less and less confidence in either party,” he says.
Experts point out that structural reforms can solve these challenges. He says multi-member districts, which would have multiple legislators representing a larger district, is one way to eliminate the problems inherent in redistricting and try to create “fair” maps.
However, the same two-party system driving the current divide has in the past supported cooperation, with periods of bipartisan lawmaking, says Professor Sadhwani, who hopes the two sides can find common ground again.
“If no one likes this kind of gerrymandering and redistricting, let’s get rid of it as a nation,” she says. “The way to do that is to pass independent redistricting commissions in all 50 states.”
Professor Noel says the independent maps are “the state of the art in good government recommendations”. But he says it didn’t take long for both parties to realize that ceding control of the redistricting process had a cost at the national level, and “what seemed like a harmless idea before was now in the way.”
Watch staff writer Simon Montlake contributed to this story from Bakersfield, California.