Best 3-lg NFL game the same Parlay for Ravens game versus Chiefs can bear fruit about 8-1 on Sunday
The SPORTLINE dropping model has been developed and operated by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all our team’s choices and content on our blog, which has the best personal bets for free. We start from a killer 23-13, +7.5 units of the week in the American Football Association.
You can find a complete summary of how Individual bets did by the week (thanks WK3), the market (thanks for traffic statistics) and SPORTSbook (thanks Betmgm).
Vanuel best lines at prices
We have set 3 stars as Fanduel offers the best / line on our board. In two of the three cases they offer a much better price.
It is only Thursday, so Fanduel does not allow me to do so In fact, lock in this Parlay, which will be +767 on the aforementioned difficulties below. This is a great value on Parlay based on consensus of +608. I don’t think these are linked plays, and temporary issues are somewhat common at this stage of the week, so I hope I can withdraw this sooner and not later. I can make a SGP on other books, so we suppose this will be the case in Vanuel sooner and not later.
There are 3 ingredients required to cook inside the best SGP lines:
1. Best drop: Think about our SPORTLINE model as a generator of the betting lines that Oddsmakers will use if they are a non -profit sports book that does not charge any Vig and looks forward to the 50/50 action budget on both sides of the line. They seek ninety percent of the time we are in line with the consensus of Vegas, but when it is not easy for us to determine the cause, and if the reasons that make the differences prefer us, well statistically supported and checking the eye of the eye, it will be qualified “the best drop”. The size of the gap between our line and consensus is not always.
2. Best line / price: The feature that we have in CBS SPORTS is that we are not associated with one sports partner, and we are definitely not in the “casino works” directly, at least. So we look at all the books we have relationships with and see whether one is presenting a strange line. Perhaps they have less than 55.5 yards RC while most of them are at 58.5 or higher. Perhaps they receive -105 on ATD for -120 elsewhere. These simple differences seem to reap the benefits similar to a person shopping with vouchers. They add up to the collapse even at 52.4 % on standard juice -10 stakes, you may find yourself up to 4 to 5 units over 1,000 bets.
3. Best Parlay Prices: Ideally, we can determine the 3 best bets (editing and narration from 1 and 2) all on the same sports book and get Parlia that pays +100 or more than the second best book. We also would like to move immediately when we define these situations because it is rare for the lines to move against our direction and if there is an external line, it usually does not last.
Isiah Pacheco more than 9.5 Rush (+106 Fanduel)
Not only do we sleep Madbuk with what appears to be a professional neck injury. The fully defensive line and the basic backup of Washington Washington on Wednesday. More importantly, unity was not more terrible against lions. Raverns did a good job for the Jahmyr Gibbs attempts on the edges that hold it to 3 yards for each pregnancy. By playing the shocking DT and the worst Ilb Roquan Smith plays David Montgomery, and the average strength within Rusher is more than 12 YPC.
The consensus line above is at -102 which makes FanDuel’s +106 that much more valuable. We’re getting +$$$ on Pacheco because he comes in with 8 straight unders, but there needs to be an asterisk next to this trend. He was recovering from injury for 6 of them to end last season. He has had 10 exactly the last two weeks playing two teams with excellent defensive lines (Eagles, Giants).
It’s not like the Ravens interior run defense didn’t know what Detroit was going to do. They just physically couldn’t stop it. When you combine the short week + decimated lineup + lost confidence in each other and DC Zach Orr you = a big game for Pacheco with plenty of carries.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-165 FanDuel)
This is not an outlier of a price with DraftKings offering the same -165. But with Fanatics at -170 and Hard Rock at -190 this line could be steaming and if you wait much longer you’ll likely have to pay -175 or more.
Derrick Henry’s first game as a Raven was an unimpressive 46 yards on 13 carries… but he did score a touchdown. Henry is off to a terrible start to the season with 3 fumbles (2 game enders), just 73 yards his last 2 games… but he still has 3 touchdowns.
With the bad run blocking and absence of Pat Ricard I would not be surprised if Henry scores in an unexpected way like through the air. I think the Ravens know they need to get Henry back mentally and will scheme ways for him to use his speed rather than rely on him as a bull-dozer.
Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Pass Interception (+162 FanDuel)
This is a classic hedge happiness play. I figure if I’m right I have a great chance of cashing this parlay. If I’m wrong then Lamar Jackson, my favorite player (of all-time?), may be on his way to a 50 TD, 0 INT season. Our consensus odds feed is showing a +125 payoff which is why the +162 on FanDuel is so enticing.
The odds imply just a 38% chance he throws his first pick of the season. Last season Lamar Jackson was credited with 4 interceptions but all of them hit his intended receiver and that’s what I think could happen here. It may be a perfect pass for a potential game winner in the end zone but it’ll probably bounce of the receiver’s shoulder pad and into the arms of a Chiefs defender.
Last week, Brian Branch had an INT that he dropped. The rest of the team is failing Lamar this season. The Ravens running game is in shambles thanks to poor run blocking, especially at the guard spots, and no Pat Ricard. With Lamar Jackson putting up mind-boggling passer ratings over his last 20 games I think he’ll have no choice but to try to save Baltimore through the air and it’s just really unlikely that anyone can get >10 passing touchdowns to in the first 4 games and not have at least 1 interception.
Props Cheat Sheet
I’m actually not a big fan of the SGP because it’s not conducive to long-term sustained success. But it’s obviously a lot more fun to hit on them so I get it. The table below is our cheat sheet for the game. It’s the one I usually start with when identifying my best bets. It takes all of the lines from our books, identifies the strongest values vs our projections (with the best sportsbook at the time) and shows our [projection] Along with the direction since the beginning of last season and the current season.
Qurtbbeck
Patrick Maqoum [4.8] More than 4.5 (+115 MGM) impulsivity attempts Last 22: 12-10 | CS: 3-0
Patrick Maqoum [0.26] Yes at any time TD +380, 20.8 % (MGM) | Last 22: 5-17 | CS: 2-1
Running
Derek Henry [0.9] Yes, reception -225, 69.2 % (fan) | Last 22: 14-8 | CS: 2-1
Derek Henry [15] Under 18.5 (-127 fan) Rush attempts | Last 22: 12-10 | CS: 3-0
Derek Henry [96] More than 86.5 (-115 MGM) Rush+RC YD | Last 22: 14-8 | CS: 1-2
Justice Hill [3] More than 2.5 (+120 MGM) impulsivity attempts Last 20: 11-9 | CS: 1-2
Cream Hunt [9.9] More than 7.5 (-105 mg) impulsivity attempts Last 19: 15-4 | CS: 2-1
Cream Hunt [0.39] Yes at any time TD +210, 32.3 % (MGM) | Last 19: 9-10 | CS: 1-2
Isiah Pacheco [10.5] More than 9.5 (+106 FD) impulsivity attempts Last 13: 6-7 | CS: 2-1
Receptions
Travis Kelissy [4.5] More than 4.5 (+112 FD) Receptions Last 22: 11-11 | CS: 0-3
Mark Andrews [0.41] Yes at any time TD +235, 29.9 % (DK) | Last 22: 11-11 | CS: 1-2
Tylan Wallace [0.13] Yes at any time TD +1000, 9.1 % (FD) | Last 14: 2-12 | CS: 1-1
Tikwan Thornton [0.44] Yes at any time TD +550, 15.4 % (FD) | Last 7: 2-5 | CS: 2-1
Zai flowers [4.3] Under 5.5 (-155 MGM) Receptions Last 20: 12-8 | CS: 1-2
Kazavier deserves [0.6] Yes at any time TD +190, 34.5 % (DK) | Last 20: 10-10 | CS: 0-1
Devetiz Walker [0.18] Yes at any time TD +1200, 7.7 % (DK) | Last 4: 2-2 | CS: 1-1