Best last-minute bets for NFL Week 6: Back these two road teams, plus why to cover the Steelers vs. Browns

We have another long day of football ahead of us. Once again, the action starts a little earlier than usual with the Denver Broncos and New York Jets kicking off from London, which means we’ll get some morning football to pair with our coffee.

From there, things escalate. Joe Flacco is poised to make his debut with the Cincinnati Bengals after being acquired in a trade with the Browns earlier this week. Meanwhile, Baltimore is looking to avoid a 1-5 start without Lamar Jackson (hamstring), and the Chiefs will look to get back to .500 when they host the Lions in primetime.

This list promises to deliver on the entertainment front, but what about the gambling side of things? Here comes our role. Below, you can find our five best bets for the Week 6 slate and our picks for the remaining games, so you’re well-positioned for Sunday.

Teams deposited in the sixth week: Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans

NFL odds via DraftKings (unless otherwise noted). bet NFL Week 5 matchups and NFL odds on DraftKings, Where new users Get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet.

• Sunday at 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubotry for free)

We rode with the Jaguars in week five, and now we’re going to fade them a week later. While Jacksonville is one of the more surprising stories of the 2025 season so far with a 4-1 record, I still have a lot of questions about them, especially surrounding Trevor Lawrence. He ranks 24th out of 33 EPA qualifying quarterbacks this season per dropback, and he did significant damage to his legs Monday night. The passing left little to be desired except for two late layups to pull off the upset. The Jags are one of the best rushing offenses in NFLbut this plays an integral role in the Seahawks’ strength. Seattle is giving up 3.3 yards per carry this season, second best in the NFL. If that continues and they clog Jacksonville’s running lanes, Lawrence’s passing deficiencies could be exposed.

Let’s also not ignore the tremendous season Sam Darnold is having for the Seahawks. Remarkably, his completion percentage and passer rating are better than what he produced last season with the Vikings. I think he takes Seattle to Duval County and leaves with an outright win.

Expected result: Seahawks 27, Jaguars 23
choice: Seahawks -1.5

• Sunday at 8:20 pm (NBC| Fubotry for free)

The Chiefs will likely figure it out by the time the regular season is over and it will once again look like… Super Bowl Competitor, but I don’t see that now. They’re unable to hold their own against even fringe playoff contenders, with their wins this year coming against the New York Giants and an injury-plagued Baltimore Ravens team. When games are close, they fall behind, and have an 0-3 record in one-score games this season. With that spread at Chiefs -2.5, I think we’ll see more of the same. I have a hard time imagining this current version of the Chiefs offense keeping up with the Lions, who are averaging 34.8 points per game (most in the NFL). Dan Campbell’s squad comes into Arrowhead Stadium with a 10-1 record on the road dating back to the start of last season. This could be another stellar showing from Detroit’s running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmir Gibbs as they take on a Chiefs defense that is giving up 4.8 yards per carry (tied for 5th in the NFL).

Expected result: Lions 30, Chiefs 23
choice: Black +2.5

• Monday at 7:15 pm (ESPN | Fubotry for free)

Buffalo had its own way against the Patriots on Sunday night, turning the ball over three times and committing 11 penalties. I’m not sure that will happen two weeks in a row. The Bills also responded well after the losses, going 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five games after the loss. Buffalo is still averaging 30.6 points per game and 395.8 total yards per game this season, which ranks third in the NFL. Despite the high-level weapons at his disposal, I still have my doubts about Michael Penix Jr. and his ability to take Josh Allen toe-to-toe.

Expected result: Bills 33, Falcons 24
choice: Bills -4.5

• Sunday at 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network | Fubotry for free)

I’ve been on a Denver dating crest this offseason, so I’m glad they’re finally starting to look like themselves. They will look to carry the momentum from their win over the Eagles in Week 5 across the pond to London, where they will face the New York Jets. This should be a lopsided matchup as New York remains winless in 2025.

One of the most surprising elements of the Jets’ poor start to the season is that they have yet to record any turnovers, which is blasphemy for an Aaron Glenn-led team. If that continues, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense will have no problem getting into the end zone at least three times. If they did, it would almost automatically guarantee them victory. In his career, Justin Fields is 0-26 when his opponent scores 21 or more points. For reference, Denver is averaging 23.4 points per game.

Meanwhile, the favorites for seven or more points are 8-2 ATS all-time in international matches, so that’s another feather in our cap here.

Expected result: Broncos 27, Jets 17
choice: Bronco -7.5

We talk a lot about how Mike Tomlin never had a losing season as coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s certainly impressive, but as we look at this upcoming game against the Cleveland Browns, we highlight another Tomlin-specific stat. The coach is 26-6 straight up in his career against rookie quarterbacks. That’s the second-best record by a coach with at least 15 games played since 1970. History tells us he should have no problem dulling Dillon Gabriel’s effectiveness in this game, and Pittsburgh’s 10 points this season (second-most in the NFL) only encourages us to put the points there. Don’t look now, but TJ Watt is also starting to heat up with three sacks in the last two games. This is even worse news for Gabriel.

Expected result: Steelers 24, Browns 16
choice: Steelers -5.5

Odds via BetMGM, where you can Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first football bet loses.

The rest of the group

Cardinals in Colts
Expected result: Colts 30, Cardinals 21
choice: Colts -7

Chargers at Dolphins
Expected result: Chargers 27, Dolphins 20
choice: Chargers -4.5

Patriots at Saints
Expected result: Patriots 24, Saints 23
choice:Saints +3.5

Cowboys in Panthers
Expected result: Cowboys 33, Panthers 23
choice: Cowboys-3

Rams at Ravens
Expected result: Rams 30, Ravens 20
choice: Rams -7

Titans in Raiders
Expected result: Raiders 24, Titans 20
choice: Titans +4.5

Bengals at Packers
Expected result: Packers 30, Bengals 20
choice: Bengals +14.5

49ers at Buccaneers
Expected resultBuccaneers 23, 49ers 21
choice: 49ers +3.5

Bears in leaders (Monday)
Expected result: Leaders 28, Bears 23
choice: Leaders -4.5