College Football Betting: Ascending Alabama looks like a class from the SEC

I was wrong about the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I expected all the issues we saw early on – security issues, lack of operating identity, lack of consistency down the road – to be major roadblocks. I thought those shortcomings would continue and cost her the SEC, which is why I pegged her to miss the playoff.

But they did what elite programs do: adapt, evolve and advance. Now, the Crimson Tide are the legitimate favorites to win the conference.

That opening loss to Florida State seemed to confirm every preseason doubt. 17 points, eight penalties, and no rhythm. But since then, Alabama has rebuilt itself piece by piece to become sharper and more consistent. Quarterback Ty Simpson has gone from cautious to driving, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt over his past four games against tough competition. The offense is balanced, explosive and efficient and found its rhythm, aided by a running game that did enough to sustain drives.

Defensively, the Tide righted everything that went wrong early. The front seven isn’t old-fashioned for Alabama, but the coverage unit is locked down, holding opponents to less than 7 yards per pass since Week 1. They win third downs, forcing turnovers and keeping their composure in pressure points.

But the biggest shift lies in discipline. Penalties were dropped, turnovers disappeared and time of possession flipped from barely 29 minutes in the opener to nearly 36 minutes going into October. This is a sign of a mature football team.

This is not the same Alabama I was betting on in August. This team has rediscovered its core identity: competence, composition and opportunism. What started as a stumble turned into a climb. At 6-1, Alabama has become a consistent part of the playoff conversation.

Mixing through the SEC

Which brings us to the bigger picture: how Alabama stacks up in the SEC.

Texas A&M and Alabama both went 4-0 in conference play, with Georgia right behind them at 4-1. Alabama has separated itself between the three. The gap is not huge, but it is real. Alabama has the best quarterback in the conference, the most disciplined and the steepest trend line in terms of improvement.

Georgia still has a top-seven forward and a more consistent game, but its offense lacks the vertical punch that Alabama now relies on. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has shown flashes, but its defensive splinters and inconsistencies against top opponents reveal a ceiling just below Alabama’s.

The Tide may have rebuilt themselves after the Week 1 loss, and are certainly a playoff contender, but I’m not ready to put them in the national title conversation. Defending the range and the lack of control of the trenches remained a concern. A true national title contender rules the roost against elite teams, and Alabama isn’t quite there.

Best bet to win the SEC?

From a betting perspective, this version of Alabama has been one of the most reliable teams in the country. The Crimson Tide is 5-1-1 against the spread, and consistently beats market expectations. Their upcoming games are more manageable than previously expected. South Carolina is not the same team many expected, as LSU struggles with offensive inconsistency, leaving Oklahoma as a real test looming, but this rivalry comes at home. If this turns into a quarterback duel, I trust Simpson more than John Mater every time. Alabama is bullish, and a market price of +125 to win the SEC makes perfect sense. This looks like an 11-1 team.