Life Style & Wellness

Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection rates are strangely low this holiday season


TThis year, the United States may get the gift of a relatively light holiday season due to the coronavirus.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has followed a predictable pattern over the past few years: after a lull in the fall, it begins to spread more widely in November, and Infection rates are reaching their peak In late December or early January. However, this year has been “weird,” says Caitlin Gitellina, who writes your local epidemiology newsletter.

COVID-19 activity was minimal throughout November. As of the week ending December 7, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 virus detected in wastewater in the United States was still considered “low.” According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Levels are starting to rise but are still well below last December’s levels.

Projections by Jay Wieland, a data scientist and infectious disease modeler who tracks COVID-19, suggest that about three times fewer people will become infected with COVID-19 in the United States this holiday season than in previous years, although some areas are more likely to be exposed to COVID-19. To hit harder than others. As many as 300,000 people in the United States are currently becoming ill with Covid-19 each day, according to Wieland’s estimates, compared to about 1 million cases per day around this time in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of infections a day is nothing, of course, but “that’s not a bad place to be for December’s numbers,” Weiland says.

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This season’s low numbers are likely due to the long-lasting wave of COVID-19 that the United States experienced last summer. An unusually large segment of the U.S. population fell ill over the summer — about 25% or perhaps more, Wayland estimates. This large group still has relatively new immunity, meaning fewer people than usual are vulnerable to infection at the moment. As an added bonus, there haven’t been many new variants of concern — which could potentially evade that immunity — in recent months, Wayland says.

There is still likely to be an uptick in cases this winter, driven by holiday travel and gatherings and cold weather forcing people indoors. But current data suggests the wave will peak later than in previous years, and will probably be smaller overall. “There is a high probability that this wave will be milder than in previous winters,” says Gitellina.

However, there are other respiratory conditions to consider this holiday season. flu and RSV Both are on the rise, and colds are everywhere too. “There are a lot of reasons to take precautions even after coronavirus,” says Gitellina. Wearing a mask, especially in crowded indoor areas, can help reduce transmission of not just SARS-CoV-2, but all respiratory viruses. Washing your hands regularly is also important, as is staying home if you are not feeling well.

And if you haven’t gotten your updated COVID-19 shot, Gitellina says now is a good time to do so. COVID-19 vaccines are better at preventing severe illness and death than they are at preventing infection, but they do offer some protection against infection, especially in the first few months after receiving the dose. And with the spread of the virus likely to increase at least a little as the winter continues, “getting a vaccine now is really the ultimate timing,” Gitellina says.

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