Cruz’s decade-old “Obamacare” warning has come true amid the government shutdown battle
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More than a decade ago, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, predicted that health care premiums would rise dramatically, even in the face of the subsidies implemented under Obamacare that were supposed to reduce them.
Today, the inflation of these bonuses and the subsidies that accompany them are at the heart of a 22-day lockdown that looks set to last much longer.
“Despite support for Obamacare, many Americans will still pay higher premiums in 2014 as a result of Obamacare,” Cruz said in 2013, referring to the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
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Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, at Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center, February 20, 2025. (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)
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In his 2013 speech, Cruz pointed to research by Avik Roy, a health care researcher who was at the time a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Roy’s research made clear that the subsidies approved by the Obama administration would do little to prevent government-backed health plans from becoming more expensive over time or compete effectively with non-government-backed plans.
But even these projections pale in comparison to the costs of the government’s emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
President Barack Obama delivers his remarks about Obamacare at an event in Washington, November 4, 2013. (Reuters)
Subsidies under Obamacare have expanded dramatically in recent years. An emergency provision included in President Joe Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan expanded the pool of eligible applicants in response to the global pandemic.
Now that the Covid-era provisions are set to expire at the end of 2025, an expiration date set by Democrats themselves, Democrats are voicing concern that Obamacare policyholders will have to afford health insurance without the enhanced supplemental aid.
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According to committee for a responsible federal budget, A nonpartisan think tank focused on fiscal policy, continuing to expand appropriations could cost up to $30 billion annually. Findings by KFF, a health care policy group, indicate that more than 90% of Obamacare’s 24 million enrollees benefit from the enhanced credits.
KFF analysis It notes that enhanced premium tax credits saved subsidized enrollees an average of $705 last year.
Congressional Democrats, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have demanded some kind of extension of already-expanded coronavirus-era benefits as a condition for passing spending legislation to end the current government shutdown, which is now the longest full shutdown in history.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., right, speak with reporters after their meeting with President Donald Trump and Republican leaders about the government funding crisis, at the Capitol in Washington, September 29, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
Republicans, who maintain that the subsidies are completely unrelated to government funding considerations, said lawmakers will address the subsidies when the government opens again.
More conservative members of Congress have said that reducing subsidies is key to returning the government to pre-coronavirus funding levels.
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Lawmakers in the Senate have voted 11 times on a short-term extension of spending aimed at keeping the government open through Nov. 21, but have so far failed to overcome an impasse over enhanced tax breaks.
Cruz did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.