Echoes of the peace plan in Northern Ireland in Trump’s ideas Gaza
After decades of violence, in a struggle, it is supposed to be long for hope in the decision, there is a “really historical opportunity for a new start.”
This was the moving spirit behind the plan launched by President Donald Trump this week to end two years of the devastating war in Gaza and bring peace to the Middle East.
But the words come from the opening page of last A plan, aimed at resolving another conflict, equally: The Great Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended three decades of sectarian killing in Northern Ireland.
Why did we write this
The view of peace in Gaza and the broader Middle East is not bright. But the possibility of success was not encouraging in Northern Ireland 30 years ago. This is not the only common factor between two cases.
Although Mr. Trump is undoubtedly the driving force behind the Gaza initiative, his plan carries noticeable similarities with the peace process in Northern Ireland, which helped former British Prime Minister Tony Blair in success.
Mr. Blair obtained a brief mention of the White House launching the Gaza Plan. Mr. Trump said that this “very good man” will be a member of the International Supervision Authority, which is intended to transfer to the post -Hamas government.
But more importantly, much strong resonance of the great Friday agreement in the peace plan in Gaza, which consists of 20 points: its design, strategy, basic assumptions, and a number of its main details.
Mr. Trump’s scheme depends on the hope that what works in Northern Ireland in Gaza will work, and on the same assumption of all: that the Israelis and Palestinians are ready to accept that continuous violence will not get any of them what they want.
The parallel northern Ireland will keep the health of what is among the three possible Gaza scenarios that are operating in the coming days, weeks and months.
The plan can reach an early dead end. Hamas or Israel can swing, leading to a renewed Israeli military attack on Gaza with Mr. Trump’s approval.
Or the first stage of the plan may fulfill success, which is an important achievement in itself.
This may involve the ceasefire, the exchanging of the Israeli hostages that Hamas and the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, and – decisively – are a comfort of the most famous of the catastrophic violence and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Then there is final hope: a victory over the great Friday agreement, and the entry of Gaza is stable, safe and economic life that opens a way to the broader Israeli -Palestinian peace.
Mr. Blair knows very difficulties and frustration in making peace in the Middle East.
As British prime minister, he worked with Israeli, Palestinian and Arab leaders to try to push the region towards peace. He continued these efforts after leaving Downing Street, when he became a representative of what is known as the Quartet, a diplomatic group consisting of America, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations.
Now, however, Mr. Blair screams on his long conviction that Northern Ireland lessons can break the Palestinian Israeli logs and provide wider peace in the Middle East.
The main lessons were woven in the Gaza plan.
It is a plan for each stage separately, with a focus at first on ending violence and leaving the most thorny political questions at a later time.
Using the great Friday mechanism, it aims to build confidence steadily through the provisions of prisoners ’publications, amnesty, and to put Hamas weapons” unclearly to what it is, “as the Northern Ireland Agreement has developed.
All of this depends on strong and continuous involvement by external leaders who will be listened to the warring parties and confidence.
In Northern Ireland, the basic issue was the future political identity of the majority Protestant region – established as part of the United Kingdom when Ireland became a mainly independent country.
The Protestants in Northern Ireland were incorrectly committed to the remaining part of the United Kingdom. Many Catholics wanted to join Ireland. In the sixties of the last century, the argument turned into violence, as the two sides participated on both sides in a campaign of strikes, killing, and bombings, as thousands of British forces struggled to maintain the regime.
The Great Friday Agreement defined a vision of the transferred government, including Protestants and Catholics.
The main question about whether Northern Ireland will remain part of Britain or join the Republic of Ireland, it was left open, to be resolved at some future stage through the popular referendum.
The key to his success was the commitment of Britain, Ireland and the United States. President Bill Clinton, who was in depth. George Mitchell, a retired American Senator called his envoy in Northern Ireland, played an indispensable role as an independent president of negotiations.
It is clear that both Mr. Blair and President Trump hope that the main elements of the Northern Ireland approach will be repeated in Gaza.
But they will also be aware of a major difference.
In Northern Ireland, by the time when peace talks began, all major political and military actors concluded that they are in their interest to find a way to end violence.
Civilians on both sides, despite the deep lack of confidence between Catholic and Protestant societies, also had enough. Evidence for this came in the Northern Ireland referendum required for the agreement to turn into force. Voice of eight in 10 people. 71 % of them are loud.
This is far from the Israeli -Palestinian conflict.
However, it took 700 days from Northern Ireland to reach this point. When they started, and on many points along the way, success looked far away.
This transformation achieved by a hard achievement process, and most of all, the authors of the Trump plan hope for repetition.