Fantasy Football: Expect Brian Thomas Jr. to continue racking up scores and points – 10 important stats from Week 6
Every Monday, fantasy analyst Joel Smith will go over 10 important stats you may have overlooked this week. After an unpredictable Week 6, what are the keys to fantasy success you need to know that your league teammates may have missed?
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30.9
The amount of half PPR fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr. If Travis Hunter wasn’t a hacker. In the third quarter, Trevor Lawrence hit Thomas for his second touchdown, this one for 54 yards – and 0 fantasy points, as it was called back for Hunter onside.
Fantasy managers are still seeing BTJ’s first double-digit fantasy game of the season, but how far will it go going forward?
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The target engagement is the same, the methods are the same, and, in general, the usage is the same. However, none of it was the problem at all. The result came more from QB chemistry, mental game and playmaking. One stat shows that conversion is better: catch rate. For his 25 targets over the first few weeks, Thomas had seven receptions, a catch rate of 28%. Since that point, his catch rate has jumped back to 74%, making 17 of his 23 targets since Week 4.
It was a traffic-heavy day versus a busy secondary day, but again, it wasn’t just a solid day; It should have been a 30 point day. Thomas had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, and that doesn’t just go away. It may not be ideal, but it’s back together for the sophomore in a new offense. I fully expect the decline to continue and the fantasy points to continue to come in after his poor start to the season.
< 5
The amount of air yards on six of Travis Hunter’s seven targets on Sunday. Outside of one target from 26 yards out, Hunter had -1 air yards on his other six targets as his expanded role left us wanting more. Hunter He drove Team with 44 career highs; Play time is not a problem. This is now the fifth straight week his route share has improved, but usage when he’s on the field is still impacting his potential.
Combine a rookie learning a complex offense with a player also training defense and a limited role as a shortstop slot receiver, the issues make sense. When Hunter runs routes five or more yards long down the field, his catch rate is a lower 35.7% than Lawrence. Even distressed BTJ is at 51.3%. With the lack of goals on the field has also come a lack of red zone usage, with just three goals in the red zone this season, including just one in the last four games. Right now, even with solid playing time, Hunter can’t get started until he’s used as more than just a glorified gadget guy.
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35-12
The Chargers’ RB settles for Kimani Vidal once he goes 38 yards. Before that moment at the end of the first quarter, Hassan Haskins and Vidal each had eight shots. Vidal’s hot hand got hotter as he continued to make big plays for the struggling Chargers offense. In his first start of the season, Vidal made four carries of 10-plus yards to zero for Haskins, leading the way with 21 touches — and 21 fantasy points.
The Dolphins entered Sunday ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed this season. It won’t be easy moving forward, but with the Chargers’ run-heavy offense, Vidal’s role in the safe passing game is almost as valuable. Backups shouldn’t be completely trusted, but as we’ve already seen with Rico Dowdle and Richard White, their value can salvage a failing season.
82.6%
RB De’Von Acane’s percentage of touches since Ollie Gordon II’s Week 3 (mini) start is third-highest in the NFL. The NFL’s youngest running back gets elite size for the second year in a row. In Week 3, Gordon had nine of 21 carries, including two goal-line attempts. From that point on, he took 11 from 57, with two goal-line attempts sticking to Ashani.
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It’s been six games, and Ashani has never had a game under 16 points in PPR leagues. It may not be consistent in how It happens, but it’s constant. If you give a speedster enough touches, he’s bound to break one eventually. He tops the RB boards in a variety of categories, including second in touchdowns, second in targets, second in passes, ninth in touches, and finally third in fantasy points. It may not be normal, but Achane’s elite size and talent could lead to a top-five fantasy finish this season.
28.4%
Evan Engram goals at every track since returning from injury. The Broncos’ passing game has never been consistent, however, with a lack of solid fantasy TEs, Engram could emerge as a solid option in the coming weeks. Ingram has been dealing with injuries since Week 1, leading to decreased snaps and overall production. However, when Engram is on the field, we see him get the size we’ve seen before.
In 2023, Engram had the second-most receptions by a TE in history with 114 on 143 targets while with the Jaguars. His goals per route that year was 23.4%. This season, the percentage reached 24.3%, with a slight increase over the last three matches. His limited snaps are the reason for his mediocre fantasy production compared to his usage, as all three of the Broncos TE’s between 83-91 snaps have been played since Week 4.
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Jake Ferguson and Tyler Warren are the only TEs with higher targets per route run this season. If Engram’s snaps can get anywhere in the same stratosphere as theirs, he could be a fantasy TE1, too.
29
Shots by Samaje Perine in consecutive weeks, 46.8% in each. After a slow start to the season for Chase Brown, the Bengals have moved away from the bell ringer in their young running back. Perine had a season-high 42.1% of RB touches in Week 6 with three of five goals from RB Joe Flacco. The Bengals’ offense has looked improved under their new quarterback, but it’s not good enough to support a RB who isn’t receiving nearly 100% of the RB’s volume.
Once Brown was a starter last season, he averaged 6.8 goals per game, the highest among starters. This drops to 4.0 in 2025 in a much less efficient offense. The hope with Flacco coming was a very high percentage of targets going to RB. Joe Burrow and Jake Browning each went for 17% of their targets, while Flacco’s field goal percentage in Week 6 dropped to 11%.
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Going in the wrong direction.
It’s an improvement over Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who accounted for 50% of Flacco’s targets, but the Browns are still far from reliable.
48.4
Half of PPR receives fantasy points courtesy of Joe Flacco. Jake Browning’s starting average was 33.7. He wasn’t Joe Burrow, but he was better. The most important factor mentioned earlier is that 20 of the 40 targeted pass attempts went to either Chase or Higgins, an increase for both all-star receivers compared to the past few weeks.
One concern entering the week was that despite playing behind a bad offensive line in Cleveland, Flacco was holding on to the ball much longer than the average NFL QB. In Week 6, no one got the ball out faster. The new Bengals QB had one sack against one of the best pass rushers in the league. The overall numbers were still poor overall, but with volume coming to the right people, it could keep Chase productive in fantasy and provide some hope for Higgins.
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(WR)4
Kendrick Bourne over the past two weeks. Most fantasy teams in 2025 look like the 49ers, plagued by injuries. Born is here to help both. The nine-year vet has shown spurts of fantasy success before, but has never quite stuck. But I think it’s true…especially if Mac Jones is under center. The reserve chemistry is there, and the coaches’ confidence is there as well. With so many injuries in San Francisco, there are a lot of goals that can be achieved.
Along with Kyle Shanahan, these goals are some of the most valuable in fantasy football. The 49ers coach hasn’t been the best in the league at quarterback, but San Francisco still leads the NFL in fantasy points per target since 2019. If the player has any talent at all, he will dominate fantasy when given size in Shanahan’s offense. Bourne has 24% of targets and 36% of air yards over the last two games. That’s enough, even if the 1-2 of George Kittle, Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall return, all of whom have their own ongoing issues with staying healthy. I’d rather stick with Bourne, take advantage of his time with Jones, and keep his ceiling long-term.
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59.3%
From shots played for Tyjae Spears. Tony Pollard is going from bad to worse in fantasy as Spurs appears to be fully back from his off-season injury. To make matters worse, this was no Just because of the script, as the Spurs played 45% of the snaps in the first quarter before the Raiders jumped out to a 17-0 lead. We expect Spears to be a receiver going forward as well, as he surpassed Pollard’s high in receptions with four on Sunday, on twice as many routes.
When there is below-average offense (by a significant margin) in fantasy with a committee background, I will always suggest staying away. The Spurs have higher potential for the two moving forward, but neither will be viable starters without major improvements around them.
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25.0%
Right back David Montgomery’s touch percentage is the lowest since he joined Detroit. Since 2023, Montgomery has played just one game in less than 35% of the team’s right-back touches. This season, he has fallen below that mark in three out of six. Overall, his RB touch percentage for 2024 dropped from 47.9% when healthy (just like Jahmir Gibbs) to 39.2%, as Gibbs’ touch percentage rose to 58.2%. The worst part is that not only did Gibbs get a huge portion of the passing game scenario, he outrebounded Montgomery 17-4.
The offseason rumors about Gibbs’ increased workload seem to be true so far. Taking out Montgomery’s explosive game versus Baltimore’s 32nd ranked defense, the Lions RB2 is averaging 9.0 just half the PPR PPG. The rivalries get tougher going forward, starting with the Buccaneers in Week 7 before the Lions’ bye week.