French black support for Palestine at the United Nations: some hope, some risks
France and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will put the tone of the United Nations General Assembly sessions next week in New York when they participated in hosting a conference on Monday to establish a Palestinian state and rebuild Gaza after the war, among other issues.
One of the main features of the conference is to recognize the Palestinian state by a number of other European and Western countries, including France, which will become the first permanent member of the Security Council, which is also a member of the Group of Seven to do so.
However, despite the uproar, the conference will be held at a time when the establishment of an independent Palestinian homeland – a long period of international diplomacy – is more distant.
Why did we write this
The French Saudi initiative at the United Nations next week supports independent Palestine, despite symbolic importance, is not free of risk, and is unlikely to lead soon to this long -awaited goal. However, supporters deserve it, to keep the discussion alive.
The ceasefire on the horizon in the two -year -old war in Gaza, which was ignited by Hamas on October 7, 2023, was an attack on southern Israel.
This week, Israel launched a ground attack in Gaza City, and it is to eradicate the remnants of Hamas in the Palestinian enclave, which is the practical impact of it is to settle the remainder of the city. In an event announcing thousands of new residential units of Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced, “This land is for us!” He pledged that there will be no Palestinian state.
In fact, many experienced Middle East diplomats and experts who have taken decades of time what the United Nations call “the Palestinian question” now says that “the two states solution”-with an independent Palestine who lives alongside Israel in peace and common-dead security.
However, initiatives such as the French SAUDI conference remain in part, some regional specialists say, because no one has reached an acceptable and practical alternative to some repetition of the Palestinian homeland.
“The events next week will have great symbolic importance, but in reality a very few practical effect on Earth. If there is anything, it may be inverse results in the short term,” says Brian Catolis, a great colleague at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He adds: “Even if the gap between what is happening in the corridors of diplomacy and on the ground remains broader than ever, it is important to keep the discussion alive because that keeps the alternative alive, where the two parties must return to.”
What are the motives of Macron?
French President Emmanuel Macron announced in August that his country will officially recognize a Palestinian state in the meetings of the General Assembly. The United Kingdom, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and others are expected to join France.
Last Friday, the General Assembly approved by 10-142 “The New York Declaration”, which is sponsored by the French, calling for an international solution to the state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Mr. Macron says he was excited to act now due to the failure to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and the in -depth humanitarian crisis there. It was more enthusiastic, according to some French analysts, by realizing that the United States during President Donald Trump will do nothing to stand on the way of any Israeli action in Gaza.
French President is also angry at the United States because of the prevented Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinian officials from entering the United States to attend the General Assembly meetings – a step that also prevents Mr. Abbas’s participation in the Monday conference.
Last week, the United Nations investigation committee found that Israel was committing the genocide in Gaza, a conclusion reached earlier this year in a study conducted by international genocide. Israel refuses to describe its war against Hamas.
Regional experts consider the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s decision to cooperate with France to host a Monday conference because it indicates the Kingdom’s fixed insistence on establishing a Palestinian homeland. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the remaining prize in the diplomatic effort that started in the first administration of Mr. Trump to normalize relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
Despite the hope-of-hope of the Saudi-French batch, however, some experts are concerned that the effort can actually harm more than benefit. This opinion recently echoed the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Hakapi, who called the Western recognition wave of Palestine “catastrophic” and said that he achieved “opposite” exactly what European countries meant.
The danger that some analysts see is that such measures isolate Israel on the international stage, which enhances the conclusion that it does not lose through disposal from one side and the resistance of international pressure.
Michael Coplo, chief policy employee at the Israeli Politics Forum, a group calling for a solution to ensure the occurrence of a safe state, Judaism, and democratic specifications, says the symbolic symbol as it might be, the international push for recognition of a Palestinian state “is at the risk of Israeli response that makes reaching a Palestinian state more difficult.”
He provides two examples, he says that the moves have already given calls in Israel to include most of the occupied West Bank, while it is afraid that they will urge Israel to “intensify pressure on the Palestinian Authority to raise its collapse.”
On the Palestinian side, the symbolic international gestures “can raise the hopes of the Palestinians in reverse ways:” Mr. Coplo says, “When the Palestinians see symbolism do nothing to improve their lives.”
Moreover, he says, what may seem to be likely to lead the gestures of good intention to actions that eventually complicate diplomatic efforts-where, for example, Spain has moved the last recognition of a Palestinian state to impose sanctions on Israel.
“Even if it remains symbolic, there is a great opportunity because it is not free of cost,” he says.
Lack of alternatives
Mr. Catolis of the Middle East Institute says that the path forward will depend on whether the main players are in diplomatic efforts-Europeans and the Arab countries-they make the activity next week from one plate or a launch platform-for example, to obtain a serious proposal on Gaza after the war.
He says: “This depends on the conversation it raises and the follow -up efforts in the countries of the main power,” he says. “We already know that Trump 2.0 will continue to provide a bloc for Israel,” he says. “But this opens some space for others to fill the gap.”
What some experts say remains clear-even after the devastating events in the past two years and all cases of a mass of two states-that there is no alternative to some forms of the Palestinian state.
“I can understand that the Israelis are not ready to talk about a Palestinian state with the shock of October 7, they are still very intense,” says Mr. Coplo. “But in the end, a time has passed, you will see that the Israelis begin to return to a two -state solution. The alternatives,” is not good for either side. “