‘Going to be Wild’: Here’s how Martinsville will decide the final four champion spots
TALLADEGA, Ala. — The elimination race to determine remaining open spots among the championship finalists typically is one of a bunch of math and confusing scenarios.
The upcoming race this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway shouldn’t have anyone hammering on a calculator.
With two spots remaining, there are primarily two scenarios to fill those two spots:
–William Byron, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney can earn a spot with a win.
–If they don’t win, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are all but guaranteed the final two spots. If any of the four above do win, it will likely come down to who earns the most points between the Bell and Larson.
Chase Elliott (L) and William Byron, are facing must-win situations at Martinsville.
After an eventful race Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway resulted in Bell and Larson having a 37-point and 36-point cushion, respectively, on William Byron, the first driver outside the cutline.
Byron (minus-36) and Joey Logano (minus-38) have no chance if Larson and Bell finish top-15, and likely would need both to finish outside 20th to have any shot to catch them. Blaney (minus-47) would need them to finish outside the top-30 for a chance and Elliott has no choice but to win.
“I’m looking forward to Martinsville,” Elliott said. “I’ve got one more shot at it.”
The situation does relieve any stress of trying to figure out potential strategies when it comes to earning stage points or whether to take a risk to try to win at the expense of not earning enough points to possibly advance.
“Martinsville’s not a bad track for us,” Logano said. “We just have a simple point of view at this point: it’s all or nothing. Stage points aren’t going to matter. Nothing else is going to matter but winning.”
All four of the drivers who fast virtual must-win situations had frustrating ends to their days at Talladega.
Elliott’s ended early when he got caught up in a crash in the opening stage.
“Unless we won today [at Talladega]We’ll be in a very similar situation next week [at Martinsville]”I hate it,” Elliot said. I don’t know what to do in those situations. …I flipped sideways and slid into the wreckage.
“I wish I could have done something different, but I don’t know what I would have done.”
Logano and Blaney worked well together to get to the front of the pack throughout the final stage but were then taken out of contention before a late caution. They both drilled for fuel before overtime hoping there would be more than one and the others ahead of them would have to drill for fuel.
There was only one overtime, and Logano finished 15th while Blaney was 23rd.
“I was a long way from winning,” Logano said. “I felt like I was in a situation where I should win. So we decided to stop there and hope there were more green and white checkers because I thought that would be our only chance to win.”
Ryan Blaney (left) and Joey Logano are trying to get back to their fourth championship.
It was the lack of execution that was frustrating for the Penske drivers, who would likely be the favorites in Phoenix to win the title if they could win at Martinsville. But the situation is now difficult for either Penske driver to advance, potentially leaving the championship in the hands of the Hendrick or Gibbs drivers.
“We didn’t do what we needed to do, and we didn’t get help when we needed it,” Blaney said. “Now we have to go win next week.”
Byron thought he did what he had to do at Talladega as he led the team in overtime. But he lost his main drive to Larsson, who ran out of fuel, then was turned by Carson Hocevar coming to the checkered flag.
Instead of winning or finishing in the top five, Byron finished 25th and was in a deep hole.
“It seems like all the players under the cut have to win, so we just have to go out there and do it,” Byron said. “We’ve had a solid couple of weeks, but no results. We just have to go out there and try to do our best,” he added.
Christopher Bell needs a strong day in Martinsville to keep his season alive.
Running out of fuel put Larson in a position where he needed to back up none of the four drivers below the cut line to win.
“You have to assume someone is going to win,” Larson said. “They’re all really good there. Every one of them has a win there. … It’s going to be a battle. The points battle is between me and Christopher.
“Hopefully we can execute again like we did and come out on top.”
bell? He just smiled at this situation, knowing he had to earn equal or more points than Larson to be safe and advance into the championship race. Bell and Larson faced off for years in sprint cars and had occasional tussles in Cup cars.
“It’s going to be a battle,” Bell said. “”[Larson] He was obviously very good at Martinsville. The Hendrick cars have been really good at Martinsville in the past.
“We just have to be good out there. It’s going to be wild.”
Bob Pockras Covers nascar and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including more than 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene Magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @com. bobockrass.