Current Affairs

How did the Syrian opposition shock the Assad regime?


In a stunning attack that appeared to catch Bashar al-Assad’s regime by surprise, opposition forces captured much of the Syrian city of Aleppo last week and began moving toward the city of Hama, another major urban center. Despite pledges by the governments of Russia and Iran on Monday to increase their support for the Syrian regime, the rebel advance continued throughout the day. What had recently been a largely dormant uprising may have entered an entirely new phase.

Last week’s attacks are the latest wave of resistance to Assad’s authoritarian rule, a civil war that began in 2011 and quickly turned into a proxy war, eventually killing hundreds of thousands and millions of refugees. Russia and Iran helped stabilize the regime even as it used chemical weapons against its own people. At the same time, Sunni authoritarian regimes in the region supported various rebel groups. Some of these were secular nationalists who wanted to end the Assad dictatorship. Others were Sunni Islamists who wanted an Islamic state. ISISIt was the most famous and violent of the rebel groups, among the latter, and controlled large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria. Then, in 2019, the US-led coalition attacked and largely wiped out the region ISIS In Syria, it seemed that Assad had won the war decisively. But now, with Assad’s allies in Ukraine and Lebanon engaged, rebel groups have been able to make their boldest and most successful military moves in years, surprising the Syrian leadership and the rest of the world.

To understand more about the situation in Syria, I spoke by phone with Fawaz Girgis, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and author of “ISIS: a history“. And his last book is entitled “What Really Went Wrong: The West and the Failure of Democracy in the Middle East?During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why the Assad regime has declined in the past decade, why Islamist opposition to Assad remains stronger than secular resistance, and where ultimate responsibility lies for one of the worst? Lies of the 21st Century.

What happened in Syria over the past week was shocking to almost everyone. But was it a shock to people like you who follow this area closely?

I was shocked by the speed with which the Islamist and nationalist opposition was able to retake large parts of northwestern Syria, including Aleppo. Aleppo is the second largest city in Syria – the cultural capital. It served as an economic power for Syria. Equally important, the Syrian government’s recapture of Aleppo, in 2016, marked a turning point in the civil war.

This was and continues to be a military earthquake. First, because of the opposition’s ability to actually carry out a preemptive attack, which means that the opposition, especially Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and various groups, have been planning this attack for a long time. This is not a byproduct of a month or two, but perhaps a few years. Secondly, I was surprised by the speed with which many Syrian army units withdrew. For Aleppo to fall so quickly, and for the army and security forces to be crushed so quickly, tells me that the Syrian army and government suffer from major weaknesses. We knew about it but did not appreciate its seriousness and depth.

Can you clarify what you mean by both Islamist and nationalist opposition?

The opposition includes more than a dozen factions, including Islamist and nationalist factions. You have a common Sunni Islamist opposition, and then a somewhat nationalist and secular opposition. But I think this kind of dichotomy ignores an overarching point. The main driver behind the rebels and opposition is HTSHTS is the vanguard of the opposition. HTS was originally called the Al-Nusra Front, and historically, it was affiliated with Al-Qaeda, the affiliate of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the late leaders of Al-Qaeda. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has tried to distance itself from Al-Qaeda in the past few years. Jabhat al-Nusra changed its name to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham because it wanted to send a clear message to its regional supporters, especially Turkey and Qatar, as well as to the international community, that it no longer truly belongs to al-Qaeda. Although Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham says it is no longer an integral part of al-Qaeda, it is a Salafist-jihadi organization. So it supports a kind of Sunni revolutionary doctrine. It remains a declared foreign terrorist group by both the United States and the United Kingdom.

As for the more nationalist, less Islamic groups, they represented the main opposition, and had up to ten thousand fighters. They are more pluralistic and believe in a more open society that includes all ethnic and religious elements. They are less dogmatic and religiously motivated. But unfortunately, they have not gained momentum, largely because of their dependence on outside powers, including the United States.

But I believe that the opposition could not have done what it did in the past few days had it not been for the combat capabilities of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, nor the willpower of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, nor the organizational capacity of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, nor the organizational process and decision-making process of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Ultimately, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham will take ownership of any progress, whatever gains, and military gains the opposition achieves in Syria.

To what degree did this group and others like it use destruction? ISIS To their advantage?

I believe that you cannot truly understand the map of the Syrian opposition, whether Islamist or nationalist, without understanding the internal civil war that destroyed opposition groups in Syria from 2013 until 2019. This particular civil war was between ISIS And Al-Nusra Front. It was a battle for power.

In the beginning, during the civil war, ISIS Having gained the upper hand, the US-led coalition changed the balance of power by destroying most of its capabilities ISIS. The United States has unwittingly allowed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to become the dominant opposition group in Syria. With very few exceptions, the US-led coalition has not systematically targeted HTS, and has avoided killing its senior leaders, especially Abu Muhammad al-Julani. Abu Muhammad al-Julani has proven to be a highly intelligent and extremely calculated operational commander – not only by changing the name of Jabhat al-Nusra to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham but also by sending direct and indirect messages to both regional actors and the United States that he is no longer truly part of the coalition. The rule. More importantly, we have numerous reports that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham provided some intelligence to the US-led coalition about the organization’s senior leaders. ISIS.

Is the reason the United States is not trying to go after this group because the United States is not currently focused on Syria? Or is it because they believe that this group, in addition to changing its name, has also reformed itself so that it no longer poses a threat to American interests?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *