How do you read early voting numbers in America?

For For the first time since August, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris The EconomistStatistical model of the US presidential election. Our latest forecast gives Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points in the past week (see chart). Although the race is still a coin toss, it is now tilted slightly in Trump’s direction. The shift in our model reflects the continued narrowing of Ms. Harris’ lead in national polls over the past month. State-specific polls published last week confirm that Trump’s position has strengthened slightly in reasonably battleground states.

The evidence of what will happen on November 5th cannot be found only in the polls. Millions of Americans have already voted. No one knows who they voted for, but it is possible to compare the turnout with previous sessions and draw conclusions from that.

Both parties are putting their energy into transforming their bases. Elon Musk’s legally murky scheme to donate $1 million a day to registered voters in swing states — apparently to spur pro-Trump voting — has recently come into the spotlight. However, several other, less extravagant attempts to boost turnout are shaping the frenetic final days of the race between Trump and Ms. Harris. One group is distributing 100,000 copies of the “Freedom Riders” comic book in Philadelphia, to inspire young people to get involved. Central Votes, aimed at students at Central Michigan University, offered temptations such as “walking tacos” (bags of mashed potato chips mixed with ground beef), pickles on a stick (“a vote is like a big dill”) and even petting. Zoo with goats.

Turnout in 2020 was the highest in a US election since 1900. Trump’s polarizing presidency was one big factor. Covid was another example, as it led to emergency measures to facilitate mail-in voting. This time, the coronavirus restrictions have disappeared, but Trump certainly has not. One crucial question is whether voter participation in 2024 will still be very high, and if not, who might benefit. Analysts are also looking at early voting numbers for clues about who might win in the end; Some have spotted warning signs for Harris’ campaign.

Provisional evidence suggests that voter enthusiasm remains high. Early in-person voters in Georgia broke records, with 1.5 million participating in the first eight days, compared to just 1 million in 2020. North Carolina, another swing state, also surpassed similar 2020 numbers, but more modestly. Officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, the most populous jurisdiction in that swing state, expect turnout to be similar to 2020.

Voter turnout may falter. If so, does this favor Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris? For decades, political science research has found that Republicans benefited from lower voter turnout due to factors such as bad weather, while Democrats benefited from higher voter turnout. But Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party changed the equation. Now his Republican coalition draws more from working-class voters, while the Democratic coalition has shifted to rely heavily on those with college degrees. This means the necessity of reconsidering old beliefs about election turnout and partisan advantage. “We can no longer assume that high-turnout elections are good for Democrats globally,” says Elliot Vollmer, a professor of political science at Randolph-Macon College. Trump’s victory in 2016, amid relatively high turnout, provides evidence of this view.

America’s high voting rates may not last beyond the Trump era, but the stunning rise in early voting will almost certainly continue. Between mail-in ballots and in-person early voting, 64% of Americans cast their ballots before Election Day in 2020, up from 42% in 2016. Covid has accelerated this process, but early voting has grown steadily since the 1990s, with the spread of “voting “comfortable” to the vast majority of countries. Early voting totals may be down this year in the absence of the coronavirus, but for campaign managers, “It’s Over on Tuesday,” as the title of a book about early voting by Vollmer says.

This year, more than 26 million voters have already returned ballots by mail or cast early ballots in person. It is difficult to extract insights from them about how the elections will ultimately turn out. However, some early numbers fuel Democrats’ concerns. Republicans’ share of early mail ballots has risen from 27% last time to 32% so far in 2024, while Democrats’ share has remained just under 48%. Trump supporters find this encouraging, but “there is still debate about whether early voting is just a cannibalization of votes on Election Day, or if you are actually getting new voters into the mix,” notes Jacob Neheisel of the University of Buffalo.

Early voting has given rise to a new sub-tribe of statisticians and scientists who interrogate raw returns for insights. John Ralston, a veteran Nevada journalist, has attracted a loyal following in his swing state. Our model has the state as a toss-up. Ralston sees a “serious risk” to the Harris campaign in early voting numbers that show Republicans returned more votes than Democrats. However, margins remain narrow in exit polls and in other early voting numbers. In North Carolina, by October 23, Democrats had cast only 10,000 more votes than Republicans out of more than a million votes cast early.

Like in Nevada The EconomistWeather forecast shows extreme heat in Michigan. High participation among working-class voters in West Michigan, a key Trump constituency, could tip the election in favor of Republicans. An increase in voting among young, black and Latino voters could benefit Ms. Harris. The polls may be wrong, but neither campaign wants to take that chance. Both work hard to encourage potential voters.

Harris’ team has 52 campaign offices and more than 375 staff in Michigan, and has signed up 100,000 volunteers since Ms. Harris’ late entry into the race. Republicans are relying heavily on a combination of efforts among outside groups, down-ballot campaigns, and the Trump operation itself. The former president is seeing “increasing support from people and states that Democrats take for granted,” says Victoria Lacivita, communications director for the Trump campaign in Michigan.

Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic Senate candidate, made a recent campaign stop at Central Michigan University. She concluded her expertly delivered speech by joking that those who came to hear her were either “deep political nerds” or “engaged citizens.” She implored them to “please disturb your friends” and make sure they vote. One student said he would definitely vote early: At least, then, “texting.” [will] Stop.”■

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