In the middle of an NFL season, there are no dominant teams
One of the few results that seemed bankable early in this NFL season was the Detroit Lions scoring at least 30 points. They’ve done so on a four-game winning streak to start 4-1 and put themselves in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders.
However, the Lions have failed to surpass that total in each of their last three games, including Sunday’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota.
The best offense in the NFL pushed the Indianapolis Colts to a 7-1 start. Then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over six times — more than the total of the previous eight games combined — in a stunning loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And the Green Bay Packers, who have reasserted themselves as Super Bowl contenders during a 5-1-1 start? Naturally, they suffered their first loss of the season at home on Sunday to a mediocre Carolina Panthers team.
What connects these three results is the idea that at mid-season, there seems to be a dearth of pigskin dominance across the league as teams move between looking great and sliding, varying throughout the week.
This week’s entry, ESPN Football strength index The Indianapolis Colts are projected to finish with the highest win total in the league at 12.2. How low is that? The last time 12 wins was enough to top the league was 2014.
In another sign of parity that has resulted in many good teams, but no dominant leader, 12 teams entered Week 9 with positive projected ratings for points added on both offense and defense. During the same period last year, there were nine such teams; Previous season seven.
One possible factor is the introduction of the ‘Dynamic Start’ for 2024 which was made permanent before this season. The rule change incentivizes the kicking team to kick a playable ball. Balls kicked into the end zone result in the offensive team taking control of their own 35-yard line, an amount of yardage that gives offenses a big start on their next drive. Field goal range is now just a few passes away.
Facing often shorter fields, the 2025 offenses are averaging 328.9 yards per game, the lowest average in the league since 2008, yet they are scoring 2.14 points per drive, the second-highest in NFL history.
In Green Bay’s case, Sunday’s 31-point loss to the Panthers was not a loss that could simply be dismissed as a bad day. Star tight end Tucker Kraft was sent off with a so-called knee injury that Packers coach Matt LaFleur said “doesn’t look good.”
In Detroit, the Lions gained more yards, completed all three third-down conversions and held the ball three minutes longer but lost to the Vikings by committing more turnovers and converting fewer red zone opportunities into points.
“It’s probably one of the worst games we’ve played in a really long time,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said.
But the most puzzling performance by a team that previously sat at or near the top of the conference was Indianapolis. Quarterback Daniel Jones revived his Colts career by leading the team to its most points over eight games since 1964. The Colts turned the ball over just four times in eight games, only for Jones to personally throw three interceptions and lose two fumbles to the Steelers alone.
Their record, up to this point, has been largely based on beating teams with losing records. The last half of the season will be spent figuring out whether the Colts are the rare dominant team that has emerged for a couple of months, or just one of many good teams.