It’s Election Day: Here’s what to expect, from California to Virginia
Americans across the country head to the polls on Tuesday, including in a handful of states witnessing pivotal elections that many political observers see as an early referendum on a second Trump administration.
Tuesday’s election comes as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings decline amid rising inflation, controversial deportation tactics and the deployment of the unpopular National Guard to US cities. Meanwhile, polls show the Democratic Party to be historically unpopular, with more than two-thirds of Americans calling it “out of touch” in a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos report. reconnaissance.
The country is also in the midst of a government shutdown that may soon become the longest in U.S. history. Flight delays are increasing as air traffic controllers work without pay, and federal food and nutrition benefits, known as SNAP, were halted over the weekend. (The Trump administration said Monday it would comply with a court order to partially fund the program using emergency funds.) A slight majority of Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown, though 42% I think the Democrats in Congress are wrong.
Why did we write this?
The 2025 election results will be closely watched for signs of growing or declining political support for Republicans and Democrats, and what those signs could mean for the 2026 midterm elections.
The administration is sending federal election observers to polling sites in California and New Jersey at the request of Republicans there, who say there were irregularities in past elections. Democrats say the move could have a chilling effect on voters and perpetuate distrust in elections.
As Americans cast their ballots, experts are watching a few key races to see what they might reveal about how President Trump’s policies will impact voters, and whether Democrats find a winning opposition message.
Here’s a closer look at what to watch for in these major races.
Virginia
Democratic Rep. and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger was consistently ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl Sears in the polls, sometimes by double digits. She has history on her side as she runs – in 11 of Virginia’s 12 gubernatorial races, a candidate whose party matches the president’s party has been defeated.
Virginia is one of only two states that elects a governor in the year following a presidential election. For this reason — and because Virginia trends politically purple — it is often seen as a political bellwether for the following year’s congressional midterm elections.
This predictive method is not foolproof. Republican Glenn Youngkin won Virginia’s governorship in 2021, but Republicans performed worse than expected in the 2022 midterm elections.
However, former Virginia Democratic Gov. L. Douglas Wilder The gubernatorial contest could shed light on how people feel about the state of the country.
“People don’t vote… for the party,” says Mr. Wilder, now a distinguished professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. “They are voting issues.”
One such issue today is the cost of living, which Ms. Spanberger centered on during the election campaign. In the country you are home to More than 152,000 federal workersthe ongoing government shutdown has exacerbated affordability challenges. These public servants are particularly concentrated in northern Virginia suburbs where Democrats need large margins to win.
Ms. Earl Sears focused on cultural issues such as bathroom and locker room policies in Virginia schools for transgender students. She has said she wants to continue many of Governor Yongkin’s economic policies.
For more, read Al-Monitor’s previous coverage of the Virginia governor’s race.
New Jersey
Polls show Democratic U.S. Rep. Mickey Sherrill leading in a close race against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a three-time gubernatorial candidate. Observers have pointed to similarities between Ms. Sherrill in New Jersey and Ms. Spanberger in Virginia — both are politically moderate women with backgrounds in national security.
As in Virginia, affordability is a major issue in New Jersey’s race, especially regarding rising housing and electricity costs. Ms. Sherrill says she will declare a state of emergency upon taking office and freeze utility costs for a year, while Mr. Ciattarelli’s plans include capping property taxes and vetoing favored projects in the state budget. Ms. Sherrill also sought to portray her Trump-backed opponent as unwilling to stand up to the president.
“If Ciattarelli won, it would mean local issues in New Jersey were prevalent because that’s how he runs,” says Julia Sass Rubin, director of the public policy program at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. If Ms Sherrill wins, it will reflect her “success in making it a national race”.
New Jersey has historically been a blue state. But in the last presidential election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won there by less than 6 percentage points, a much closer margin than in previous presidential cycles.
“By all indications, it’s going to be a fairly close race,” says Dr. Rubin.
The Monitor took a closer look at the New Jersey contest over the weekend.
New York
Democratic socialist Zahran Mamdani appears to be holding a strong lead in the New York City mayoral race, beating Democrat and former Governor Andrew Cuomo by about 25 percentage points in the last election. Emerson College SurveyRepublican Curtis was more than happy with that.
Mr. Mamdani’s campaign has already caused a stir. Political pundits credited a savvy social media strategy with fueling his decisive primary victory — he won 56 percent of the vote in June — and elevating the race to national headlines.
First-time voters, attracted by Mr. Mamdani’s army of door-knocking volunteers and his promises to improve affordability, were key to his primary victory. The Queens councilman campaigned on a number of progressive proposals, including free bus services, universal child care, and government-run grocery stores.
Right-wing politicians denounced his plans. Some influential conservatives in New York have called on Mr. Sliwa to withdraw from the race to boost Mr. Cuomo’s chances. Mr. Sliwa, who is running on a platform of public safety, has consistently received lower results than both Democratic candidates.
Mr. Cuomo has called Mr. Mamdani’s policies too expensive and unworkable, and said he could “kill New York City.”
Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents a district in Brooklyn, gave his endorsement to Mr. Mamdani on October 24, less than two weeks before the election, saying the candidate was “relentlessly focused on addressing the affordability crisis.” But other influential Democrats balked — Jeffries’ counterpart in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, also from New York, remained silent, and former US President Bill Clinton endorsed Mr. Cuomo.
Mr. Mamdani sought to reassure business leaders and other moderate constituencies. At the same time, his candidacy received overwhelming support among young New Yorkers, who praised his willingness to confront long-term challenges with overall affordability.
Read Al-Monitor’s coverage of the New York race here.
ca
Californians will vote on whether to temporarily sideline the independent redistricting commission and redraw congressional districts to try to pick up more Democratic seats in the 2026 midterm elections. The measure, called Proposition 50, is expected to pass. If it does, it could pave the way for California to eliminate five new Republican districts created by Texas earlier this year.
Typically, new districts are drawn every 10 years after the census. But this year, President Trump asked Texas lawmakers to redraw their state map, in an effort to create five more Republican congressional seats before next year’s midterm elections. The Texas governor signed the new map into law in August.
California Governor Gavin Newsom responded by saying his state needed to “fight fire with fire” and proposed a new map for California. Unlike Texas, the state legislature cannot simply create a new plan. Voters would have to approve the move, effectively ending the Redistricting Commission’s work until 2031.
In general, American voters do not approve of gerrymandering or redistricting on a partisan basis. But Trump’s efforts have led many Democrats to feel compelled to respond in kind, though some voters still worry about the effects on democracy.
The Trump administration will send federal election observers to California on Tuesday, as well as to one county in New Jersey. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the state would deploy its own monitors to monitor the monitors.
The Obama, Biden, and Trump administrations all sent election observers to monitor some state or local elections. Mr. Bonta accused Mr. Trump of using observers to sow doubt about the integrity of California’s elections.
For more, read Al-Monitor’s coverage of California’s Proposition 50 here.