Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Discussing MVP front-runners ahead of Ravens-Bills

The careers of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are closely linked. Both taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, both quarterbacks arrived in the NFL facing serious, if very different, questions about their professional prospects. Seven years later, they are neck and neck in the league’s QB standings. The next chapter will come in their playoff journeys against each other.

So, who will come out on top?

Allen’s Bills host Jackson’s Ravens in an AFC group stage showdown on Sunday night, the highlight of the weekend. Buffalo and Baltimore cruised through the wild card by beating Denver and Pittsburgh by double digits, respectively.

Allen and Jackson, both MVP candidates, are aiming to make their second AFC Championship appearance. In their only previous postseason matchup against each other, in the 2020 divisional round, Allen and Buffalo came out on top.

FOX Sports writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna came together to compare and contrast the careers of both star quarterbacks through the lens of this season, their upcoming matchup and their respective legacies.

Moderator: Henry, you had a story earlier this week Check MVP statuses Both QBs. It was really insightful – except for the part where you didn’t pick a winner. We’re not letting you off the hook here. Who will get your vote?

McKenna: Okay, shoot. I’ve actually avoided choosing MVP, because I’ll pick one and feel bad not voting for the other. I’ll go with Josh Allen. With poetry.

I’ve seen all the numbers. Lamar Jackson has more touchdowns, higher Expected Points Added (EPA) and fewer interceptions. Lamar has been more valuable on the stat sheet.

But once you establish yourself in the film, there’s a lot to love about Allen’s season. It’s not just about great throws or runs. It’s how he’s consistently dragged a roster full of disappointing pass rushers to the No. 2 seed in the AFC — while beating out the king, Patrick Mahomes.

Arthur: I get Josh Allen’s argument, and he’s certainly had some unprecedented games and moments this season. But I think we have to be wary of potential fatigue when it comes to Lamar Jackson winning the third-best player award.

Let’s look at the facts: He was much better than he was last year, when he won his second league MVP award. He had a 41-4 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio, the highest by a quarterback in a season with more than 30 passing touchdowns in NFL history. He also passed Michael Vick for most career rushing yards by a quarterback. Not only is Jackson the gold standard when it comes to being a dual-threat quarterback, but he also takes significant steps forward every season.

My vote (if I have one) will go to Jackson.

McKenna: Look, there’s an interesting question there. Is Lamar the gold standard for a dual-threat quarterback? I’m really not sure. Because you can make the case that Allen is just as dangerous, and perhaps more dangerous, than the runner.

I brought up the Bills win over the Chiefs. How did Allen close the door on Kansas City? With a 26-yard run on a fourth-down conversion. Amazing clutch. He did this with his legs.

He’s Bash’s brother. He threw his 250 pounds in such a way that defenders would be reluctant to hit him by the fourth quarter. And even though the Bills clearly asked him to reduce his total carries (which reduced his total yardage), he still put up TDs. He had 12 rushing touchdowns this year (and had 27 over the last two regular seasons).

Arthur: When I say gold standard, I mean raw statistics. But I think we can agree that both guys are exceptional as dual-threat quarterbacks. It really comes down to the style you prefer.

Allen (as I mentioned, Henry), is more than just a bruiser. Jackson, at 205 pounds, is more elusive and elusive. I’m more in favor of the latter option – fewer hits on the quarterback – but I guess you could argue that Allen’s style instills more fear in the defense, and perhaps motivates the offense to a higher degree.

There’s really no wrong answer between them this season, as both QBs appear to be at their peak. But which one do you think will ultimately have a higher ceiling?

Arthur: I have to go with Jackson.

I think his dual-threat style becomes more sustainable over time (Jackson’s dribbling tends to lead to fewer shots) and his growth as a passer has been noticeable over the past couple of years with Todd Monken’s plays. His touchdowns have increased four years in a row. His yards per attempt have risen for five straight years. It’s as if Jackson hasn’t reached his peak — even if it sounds crazy to say so.

McKenna: Ben, I’m with you there. We haven’t seen a guy like Allen since Cam Newton. Oh my goodness, Newton’s production declined quickly. He only played 11 seasons and his production was outstanding for a fraction of that.

I’m not saying this is exactly where Allen’s career is headed. But I think there’s a legitimate concern about attrition. It’s kind of hard to imagine that these guys are still up, but you’re right, there’s more potential to capitalize on Lamar.

Well, with the Bills about to host the Ravens, which QB do you guys expect to play best this weekend?

McKenna: Well, it will once again be in the eye of the beholder.

I think the Bills will win because of Allen’s management of the game. He may not have the most yards or even the most touchdowns. But he would get first downs and touchdowns in the game’s most crucial moments. Jackson will have a better stat line. Maybe he will play better. But the Bills will be headed to the AFC title game.

Arthur: I will say Jackson is playing better and The Crows get the win.

I am sure he is well aware of the narrative about him; He’s just a regular-season performer, considering his 3-4 playoff record. I think the loss in the AFC Championship last season should be an incentive as well. I imagine he’ll be putting a lot of pressure on himself at this point as he competes against a quarterback of Josh Allen’s caliber – and thrives with a teammate like Derrick Henry by his side.

Which QB do you trust the most with the game on the line?

Arthur: Allen is the easy answer for me. The Bills have consistently fallen short in the playoffs over the past few years, but it hasn’t been due to Allen’s inability to meet the moment. We’ve seen his epic duels with Mahomes, for example.

Jackson, meanwhile, has not played at his level in the postseason. I think there’s a good chance that will change this year with more help, but he doesn’t have the resume to prove it yet.

McKenna: I’m with you, Ben. I like the way Allen has performed in the clutch this year. I know it’s appropriate for me to show stats when I pretty much left them out earlier. But I’ll do it anyway.

On his third and fourth downs of the year, Allen had an EPA total of 42.7 with a 0.28 EPA per down. In the same situations, Lamar’s EPA total is 30.1 with 0.21 EPA per putback.

If his first-team All-Pro selection is any indication, Jackson is on track to capture his third MVP award. But neither of them won the Super Bowl, of course. Who do you think will be considered the top quarterback when it’s all said and done?

McKenna: It’s really difficult. I’ve been stubborn about Allen’s chances of winning it all this year. He had a little more success against Mahomes. And if any of these QBs want to build “greatness,” they’ll have to do it through the Super Bowl. (Or many.)

But I can’t change our conversation about the length of each QB’s career. About Lamar’s upside. It also helps that John Harbaugh wins a Super Bowl and may hold off on retiring until Lamar is done. This means something. (Compare that to Allen and coach Sean McDermott, who doesn’t have a Super Bowl championship to his name — and could lose his job one day if he can’t deliver.)

I’ll take Lamar.

Arthur: I’ll say Jackson too.

He already has three first-team All-Pro selections and is expected to collect his third Most Valuable Player award as well. Allen has none of that, and as we noted, Jackson appears to have more long-term upside. I think Allen would have to significantly surpass Jackson in rings to be considered “the greatest” by the end of his career, and that’s hard to imagine given Mahomes’ presence in the AFC.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for the Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was a program director Titans The writer won for a year and a half. He covered Seattle Seahawks For SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) before moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @bennyarthur.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @HenrysMkina.

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