Kamala Harris bounce after birth is now visible in the polls

toIKE Bird-Hathers With perspectives, American presidential race observers trained their eyes on opinion polls to see if they could detect postpartum bounces of any of the candidates. Now they can. according to EconomicThe trackers of surveys expanded, and Kamala Harris advanced in the country over Donald Trump to 4.5 percentage points, from 3.8 points on September 10, the day of their discussion. The improvement of 0.7 points is small but may be important, and Mrs. Harris gives her greatest progress so far in our tracking (see chart).

Unlike Mr. Trump’s claims, Mrs. Harris clearly won the discussion. Many investigative studies confirmed what CNNFlash survey suggested at night: that the vast majority of Americans believed that Mrs. Harris had surpassed Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly fought in the traps that his opponent put to him and coincided with being angry and wandering. A Yogov poll said 55 % of the discussion monitors thought that Mrs. Harris won, compared to 25 % for Mr. Trump,; ABCIt was 58 % to 36 % for Mrs. Harris. It was a good night for the Democrats in support of Taylor Swift.

The Harris campaign got an immediate financial payment, and informed that it raised 47 million dollars in 24 hours after the discussion. Will the discussion be a real impact on the race? History suggests that presidential jousts rarely make a difference. But President Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance against Mr. Trump on June 27 was the change of the game, and this time the modernity of Mrs. Harris’s nomination means that the Americans were noticeable: about 67 meters were seized, 16 meters more than a witness to confront Trump in hand. It takes some time to show new opinion polls whether the discussion has transferred the needle on the average polling. The needle has now.

The true image may be more magnificent for Mrs. Harris than the combined degrees that she refers to, as her reversal is still being held by polling before birth. Some of the latest extreme surveys. Mooring Conser shows Mrs. Harris, who leads the country among potential voters with six points, compared to three points before the discussion; Economic/Yougov explains the improvement of Mrs. Harris with four points, while Mr. Trump remains constant. Of the 12 poll boxes, Mrs. Harris improved her share by 1.2 points on average and Mr. Trump exacerbated 0.3 points, thus moving the margin by 1.5 points towards Mrs. Harris.

Voters for Mrs. Harris continued to improve. Before Mr. Biden fell, the category of the two net susceptibility had a minus point 17 points. This week, according to the Fivethirtyeight Reconnaissance Group, positive views are negatively equal for the first time since mid -2011 (Mr. Trump in Minus Ten).

However, good news after birth of Mrs. Harris comes with two warnings. One of them is that it is not the popular vote that determines who wins, but the electoral college, as the result depends on a handful of swing countries. The polls at the state level since the discussion are still rare and the results have so far been mixed. The race is still very soon. Nevertheless, polling bouts were generally sufficient to push our elections model. The model now gives it a 57 % chance to win (its highest levels so far), compared to 43 % for Mr. Trump, compared to the edge of 53-47 on September 10. In general, while the model before the discussion indicated the tower, it now gives Mrs. Harris an opportunity to win nearly five in five.

The second warning is that many can still change. The last opinion polls were held before the attempt to assassinate Mr. Trump in Florida on September 15. Since June, the competition has been full of big surprises. Certainly they will not be the last.■

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