MLB Playoffs: Examining Yankees star Aaron Judge’s numbers
In case you haven’t heard, Aaron Judge enters the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered October results record compared to his stellar regular season resume.
For his career, Judge’s OPS was 250 points lower in the postseason than it was in the regular season (the average OPS drop from regular season to the playoffs for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point almost every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason, Judge has done objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he’s not bringing much power, having only one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 games, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we took a deep dive into Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three innings) to see what we can learn about October so far.
How is the judge installed in the qualifiers? Is it different from the regular season? Why doesn’t he seek power? Is it bad luck? And where could the postseason go from here — if the Yankees can hang around long enough for him to find a home run?
How do left-handed pitchers approach the judge?
Judge vs. lefties in playoff run: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR.
Judge vs. lefties in postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Every pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that left-handers are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes like this: Throw hard objects (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, breakers) at his hands, largely downward, then mix it up with softer objects to keep him honest, and locate those throws low and on the corners — where he’s least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside the area, not towards the middle. Don’t be afraid to eat out of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means coming in hard against a 6-foot-7 baseball player whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against the good ones.
Apparently, two of the lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Broehl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed the plate inside, missing one so far that Judge hit. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were more aggressive, likely due to better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers approach the judge
Judge vs. righties in career playoffs: .241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties in postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different pitchers in the postseason, and these pitchers vary widely in the mix of their pitches and the quality of their pitches, but right-handed pitchers seem to use a decision tree to formulate their game plan against him.
If the righty’s highest velocity is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) he throws it as far as he can while locating it down and away — mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning on the plate. Here’s a look at judge versus just breaking balls.
If the righty’s secondary’s highest pitch is a split ball — like Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage did in the first two ALDS games — he’s mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But regardless of their style, the common goal for all of these pitchers is to never make a mistake at the plate!
How does Judge’s regular season history factor into this plan?
Although Judge’s October struggles have become a story throughout his career, any team preparing its pitching strategy for a franchise would plan to play the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treat him like a player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
This starts by keeping the ball away from where the judge can cause the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the Central Midfield — or, more generally, just below the middle.
Facing those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both numbers second-best in baseball.
Here’s where Judge ranks among all eligible hitters in MLB this season, as measured by xwOBA:
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Second best stadiums versus medium and medium courts
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Best for stadiums in heart Area (larger portion of the strike zone than the middle center)
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Best for every pitch vs. Fast ballsand second in total value
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Best on the field and overall versus sinkers
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Best for every step and overall versus breakers
Imagine getting that scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw anything to him in the middle either.
How a judge handles pitches he has to crush
Now for the twist: Judge faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the Central Central District (one pitch every three plate appearances, a little more than in the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled four and whiffed another — and took two middle-range pitches for strikes.
This is not a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample meant that running down the field on a ball cut down the middle would put a hole in it, but while watching all of his games in the playoffs, I made a lot of these kinds of observations: “The goal was [zone direction] Corner kick, missed goal in the middle of the area, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher]”.
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost in small samples. Judge is shown roughly the same as he was in the regular season (actually a little friendlier), but he hasn’t replicated the damage he did in the regular season, especially when it comes to punishing fouls thrown up the middle. Judge has essentially performed the same (pursuit rate, xwOBA, etc.) as he did in the regular season against non-positional pitches, so not capitalizing on those mistakes is why his power has declined in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone who puts up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it all comes from singles and a few doubles — but the tension has risen with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense must deliver, with Judge at its heart. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or else it runs the risk of adding another October disappointment to its resume.