Peacemakers in Gaza have cleared an obstacle, but longer obstacles remain
As high-level representatives in the Gaza peace negotiations sought to find a path to “yes” in talks in Egypt on Wednesday, a major turning point occurred when the two sides agreed to split the emerging agreement into two phases.
With the signing of White House representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, a consensus was reached to separate the first phase of confidence-building from the rest of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan.
Part of this first phase – the Gaza ceasefire and partial withdrawal of Israeli forces – has already begun, with the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners expected by the end of this long weekend in the United States.
Why did we write this?
To achieve a breakthrough that would allow a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages, negotiators separated the emotional first phase of Trump’s plan from the much more complex second phase. There is still a lot of hard work to move Israelis and Palestinians to peace.
White House officials said in a press conference on Thursday that dividing the Gaza peace plan into two distinct phases was what saved the talks from drowning in the details of many complex issues that must be addressed in a comprehensive agreement that ends the war in Gaza.
It was the idea of a first phase largely limited to the long-sought and highly emotional goals of a ceasefire and the release of all hostages that allowed Mr. Trump to seal victory on Wednesday and the streets of Israel and Gaza flowing with relief and jubilation.
“It is too early to talk about peace”
However, despite the welcome and hope of the agreed-upon first phase, many experts warn that it has not yet reached peace.
“It is too early to talk about peace, and there are still important issues that need to be addressed,” says Hugh Lovatt, a senior political fellow and Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.
Pointing to potential obstacles in both phases of the deal’s implementation, Mr. Lovatt notes “the real risk that Israel will obstruct its further redeployment while continuing to undermine the diplomatic path to a two-state solution.”
Moreover, given the complexities of the issues that must be addressed in the second phase of negotiations to secure real peace, some experts question whether the key players – including the United States – will have the focus and stamina to reach the ultimate prize. They point to Israel’s resistance, in particular, to some of the unstable principles contained in the 20-point plan.
“A lot would have to happen to say that this tragic cycle is really over,” says Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard Kennedy School. “The question now is, does President Trump and his administration have the staying power to see this get to something beyond the first phase that actually resembles peace?”
Progress on the ground
However, in the meantime, the conclusion of the first phase is already being felt on the ground. The ceasefire went into effect on Friday, shortly after the Israeli government approved the agreement late on Thursday. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces from population centers towards defensive positions on the outskirts of Gaza, thousands of displaced Palestinians began to return to Gaza City and the northern part of the Strip.
It also began a clock on the release of Israeli hostages, which is scheduled to take place within 72 hours of the ceasefire. This has led to a wave of joy across Israel, as Israelis anticipate the dramatic return on Monday or perhaps even Sunday of their compatriots, who survived two years of horrific captivity.
President Trump, whose name is at the top of the 20-point plan, is expected to arrive in the region starting Monday morning: he will address the Israeli Knesset, then plan to meet with the released hostages or their families. Mr. Trump has emerged as a champion of the hostage families and as the most popular political leader among Israelis for his ability to apply high pressure to free the hostages and achieve a ceasefire.
He will then travel to Egypt for the official signing of the deal later on Monday. What’s new on the agenda, according to officials: a summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, either late Monday or early Tuesday. Its purpose: to bring together regional and European leaders whose countries are expected to bear much of the burden and cost to keep the plan on track and ensure the deal does not collapse after the first phase.
Although Mr. Trump declared this week that the Phase One agreement represents the greatest day in history, the summit appears on the one hand to be an acknowledgment that there is still much work to be done.
But at the same time, the hastily convened summit also reflects President Trump’s leadership style that analysts credit with launching the first phase.
“We have seen in the space of a week that President Trump is acting like a powerful particle accelerator, forcing everyone to move at supersonic speed to reach an agreement that most of us assumed was unachievable,” says Nimrod Novik, an Israel fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. The New York-based think tank works to strengthen Israel’s long-term security through a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Disarmament and other obstacles
Even before the parties reach the final stage of issues related to Gaza’s governance, reconstruction and security through a ground force composed of units from third countries, critical issues early in the second phase could still impede any progress on the rest of the plan.
One example is the chicken-and-egg issue of disarming Hamas and Israel’s commitment to ending the conflict. Israel insists on the necessity of disarming Hamas in a verifiable manner, and removing its fighters from Gaza, before it can completely withdraw from Gaza and make the ceasefire permanent. But Hamas first wants guarantees that Israel will not exploit its disarmament to resume the war.
Once the challenges of the first phase are completed, “that’s when the hardest work begins,” says Rachel Brandenburg, managing director of the Israel Policy Forum in Washington.
What security perimeter will Israel need, how will humanitarian aid be ramped up, and — point No. 19 of the 20-point plan — “what does a credible path to a Palestinian state look like?” she asks. “The plan’s 20 points are really more like principles,” she says. “It would be difficult to detect in practice.”
However, Mr. Novick points out that a tremendous amount of work has been done over the two years of war, not least by the Biden administration, to lay the foundation for the Day After plan for Gaza. He says it is not “fairyland” to expect that all the hard work that has been done to formulate a variety of peace plans in Gaza should help pave the way forward and keep the peace process on track.
“If it’s all that [work] “When the war comes to fruition, Israel will have less incentive to resume the war, and Hamas will have no choice but to accept,” says Mr. Novick.