Pennsylvania, the decisive battlefield in the American elections

S.J July 21 Matt Rowan, Chairman of the Democratic Campeland County Committee, hosted a meeting with the volunteers. The event took a turning point when Mr. Rowan stopped reading a statement from Joe Biden announced his departure from the presidential race. “There was this kind of sadness – then immediate hope,” Rawan recalls in his office, which overlooks Capitol in Pennsylvania. Activist talks about Mr. Biden, but he admitted that “things were not good” at the time. Kamala Harris’s rise from volunteers to the province of Fadald Trump was 18 points in 2016, but only 11 points in 2020. The Presidency.

Both campaigns believe that the state of Pennsylvania is a focal point in the 2024 elections, and for a good reason. the EconomicThe S model suggests that the state-with 19 its total votes, is mostly in any case of swing-the turning point in 27 % of the updated simulation operations of the model, which means that it decides the elections often more than any other country. Mr. Trump wins only 7 % of the time when he loses stone. In fact, he won a slight difference in Pennsylvania in 2016, then lost 80,000 votes out of nearly 7 million in an attempt to re -elected his unsuccessful election after four years.

No country has found more money. Of the 839.5 million dollars spent by the Harris campaign and allied organizations already or committed to the announcement, 164.1 million dollars went to this 13 million population. The least quality Trump operation launched $ 135.7 million from 458.8 million dollars to Pennsylvania. Run the TV, watch a video on YouTube or listen to the radio inside Pennsylvania and will not go long before the sites of Mrs. Harris or Mr. Trump start playing.

The correspondence war is a study of contradictions. Mrs. Harris is seeking to define herself in upscale advertisements, while warning others against Mr. Trump’s influence on the economy, reproductive rights and American democracy. As one of the most famous people in human history, Mr. Trump does not spend time to present himself to voters. His advertisements and his speech are uncompromising to the paint of Mrs. Harris as a leftist outside the touch responsible for inflation and the crime of migrants. Such campaigns have found success before in the presidential election, but JJ Abbott, a democratic strategic expert in Pennsylvania, argues that “there may be some restrictions on the amount of these dark and brutal ads that may succeed” by Republicans in recent races on State level.

Mr. Trump also drew attention to Mrs. Harris’s former opposition to broken natural gas, an important industry in West Pennsylvania, which is now supporting. The issue may be at the forefront of the mind in those areas that produce energy, but in other places, voters often express indifference. “It is not amazing for any politician … the belief that Pennsylvania supports more energy exploration,” says Stephen Bloom, Vice President of the Commonwealth Foundation, the center -right research center. “No one has said before the word cracking for me,” says Stella Sexston, deputy chairman of the Lancaster County District Committee. She says she hears more about the cost of living and reproductive rights.

For many years, a blue state has also voted that also elected moderate Republicans. Pennsylvania voted about three points to the right of the country in 2016 and 2020. Since 2008, the percentage of registered voters as democrats has declined during the growth of the Republicans. Republican records outperformed democratic series this year until Mrs. Harris entered the race (see plans). Democrats argue that some Republican gains have been compensated due to the height of independents with left -wing tendencies.

Harris supporters are especially proud of their ground game. The campaign includes more than 350 employees in 50 offices in Pennsylvania, 16 of which are located in the rural areas that Mr. Trump won with double numbers four years ago. The idea is to get rid of support in the heavy republican regions even when MS Harris does not have an opportunity to win directly. “They are playing playing in an attempt to do better in rural provinces,” says Mark Harris, Republican strategic expert. “This will again be unusually divided between the densely populated suburbs against electronic and rural communities.”

Republican efforts seem more inventor, with a group of groups working on turnout efforts. Postal vote is a priority. In 2020, Mr. Trump has actively thwarted the mail, but he has since changed his speech, although he was inconsistent, hoping to reduce the feature of Democrats.

Ryan Shavek, a Republican strategy, says if Mr. Trump wins, he won in Pennsylvania, he will explain that he collected an alliance of low -white working -class voters and religious voters. In addition to continuing to achieve roads on the outskirts of the state. ■

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