Republicans bear more blame for the shutdown, as signs of voter dissatisfaction from both parties accumulate

Meanwhile, voters’ negative views of the Democratic Party, including among Democrats, are relatively unchanged from record low ratings in last March’s poll by NBC News. The Republican Party also suffers from a shortage of voters, but not to the same degree. In another question in the poll, voters responded positively to the idea of ​​removing every member of Congress.

At the same time, the poll also found that core supporters of both parties are on their side in the face of the lockdown – perhaps explaining why it has dragged on for a month with little sign of a solution.

Groups most likely to blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown include core Democratic constituencies such as self-described liberals, young voters, those living in urban areas, black voters, and highly educated voters. Those blaming Democrats include MAGA supporters, white men, rural voters and seniors.

“Every party can look at this data and say, ‘Let’s not blink,'” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

Neither party has yet relented, with Democrats opposing government funding bills unless an agreement is reached to extend expiring health care subsidies.

“Health care, the main focus of the debate over a government shutdown, is an area where Democrats still have the upper hand,” Horwitt said.

The poll also found that 34% of voters say they or a loved one had their jobs, services or benefits affected by the shutdown — the highest percentage in an NBC News poll covering other shutdowns in 2019, 2013, 1996 and 1995.

Those personally affected are also among voters most likely to blame Republicans for the impasse and broadly agree with Democrats, including young women and black voters, 50% of whom say they are affected.

“Historically, Republicans have been seen as not supportive of government,” McInturff said, also pointing to federal layoffs led by Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency that have pushed voters’ opinions of his presidency. The Republican pollster added that although Democratic votes are needed to advance the legislation in the Senate thanks to the 60-vote threshold to end debate, Republicans may be widely viewed by voters as controlling the government.

“Given these factors, I think the default for people is that it’s a Republican effort in terms of who’s to blame. … We’ve had 30 years of shutdowns, and that’s the most to blame Democrats. So both things could be true at the same time,” McInturff said.

Although voters place more blame on Trump and the GOP for the ongoing shutdown, the poll finds a deep well of ill feelings toward both parties, as well as negative views of members of Congress.

Democrats are down 25 points, with only 28% of voters viewing the party favorably, near a record low 27% positive rating in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.

Republicans received a net negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party unfavorably and 37% viewing it favorably.

According to these findings, the Democrats’ shutdown crisis did not boost views about the party within their ranks.

The gap between the two parties’ ratings persists in part because 22% of Democrats say they view their party unfavorably, while only 8% of Republicans say the same about the GOP. Going back to last March, 19% of Democrats said they had negative views of their party.

The new poll also showed that 59% of Democrats view their party favorably — unchanged since March. (The rest said they were neutral or unsure.)

When asked how they would vote if they could choose to defeat and replace every member of Congress, including their own representatives, 57% of voters said they would vote to do so — the highest percentage in an NBC News poll since October 2013. And 40% said they would not remove every member of Congress if given the chance.

Similar percentages of Democrats (57%) and Republicans (55%), as well as 62% of independents, say they would vote to replace each lawmaker.

These results come as more candidates consider primary challenges against incumbent lawmakers in the 2026 election cycle, and as both parties face the prospect of a generational change following the 2024 election results.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 24-28 via a combination of phone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.