The government closes looming on the horizon. This time, the effect can continue.
America is on the brink of the government. Without a surprising deal at the last minute, the question becomes how long it will continue-and how damages it will cause.
Democrats so far refused to accept a short -term deal to keep the government open at current financing levels until mid -November, and Republicans have refused to negotiate the Democrats’ demands to restore health care financing. President Donald Trump and Congress leaders agreed from both sides to meet at the White House on Monday, but unless they could go out, the government will close at 12:01 am on Wednesday morning.
Although previous closures mean temporary additions, or suspension at work, for federal workers whom the president does not consider necessary by the president, this battle can have long -term consequences. The Trump administration threatens to use large numbers of employees and achieve their political goals while inferring the maximum pain for Democrats.
Why did we write this
President Donald Trump and Congress leaders agreed to the meeting on Monday. If you do not reach a deal, the administration says it will use the closure to launch large numbers of federal employees.
White House Office for Management and Budget I issued a note Last week, the agencies are directed to develop plans for mass shootings in the event of stopping the operation, and targeting employees whose programs are not assigned under the law and do not agree with the president’s priorities. ”Even after the closure is over, the memo says, the agencies must only keep the“ minimum employees needed to implement legal jobs ”, which raises the possibility of deep and permanent discounts for federal programs.
This has put the Democratic leaders in the Senate in a link. Their voters were angry when they allowed the Republicans to keep the government open in March, and they are now spoiled to fight. But now, as it seems that these leaders do not have a great deal of leverage, no clear end games, and they risk serious political and realistic consequences.
“Democrats need to walk in this government financing who are widely open eyes, because in his face this trap seems to have no clear strategy,” says Rodel Mulino, a democratic strategic expert and former Senate leadership.
So far, Democrats in the Senate refused to decline, saying that the shooting operations of the Trump administration are not different from the waves of a previous collective government from this administration.
“They are doing it anyway. There is there. There [currently] No stop. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer from New York on Sunday said “Meet The Press”. “They are trying to intimidate the American people and us.”
They say part of the primary tension of Democrats is that they cannot trust the Trump administration to honor any agreement. The President and his team applied programs and opened fire to the authorized workers under previous party credits agreements. Just as this round of negotiations increased, the administration reduced about $ 4 billion in foreign aid in a way that made sure that Congress did not get a vote on it. supreme court Ruling On Friday, these discounts can continue, more beloved Democrats in Congress who say the administration rapes the constitutionally defined Congress with the help of the conservative Supreme Court.
The Republicans seem to be happy to allow it to be closed if the Democrats do not agree to a short -term agreement, known as the ongoing decision, or CR, to finance the government at the current levels until November 21. This council approved but needs 60 votes to reach the Senate, and requires democratic support.
“It is up to them,” said Mr. Trump on Friday. “If it must be closed, it will have to close it. But they are the ones who close it.”
The Monday’s meeting is a glimmer of hope after the president canceled the planned discussions last week.
In “Meet The Press”, Senator Schumer described the scheduled meeting as “a first step, but just a first step”, while only says “serious negotiation” can prevent closure.
In a statement on Sunday, the majority leader of the Senate John Thun, from South Dakota, faced a “nothing changed” in the position of the Republicans. He said: “The choice is still the same: Democrats can either vote for clean CR and short -term non -party -term priority to the American people, or they can choose a closure that can be completely avoided giving priority to politics above all.”
Programs that the Trump administration may exempt from closing include social security, medical care, medical aid, migration and customs enforcement, border security, military operations, the benefits of old warriors, and air control. National parks can be closed, food sealing programs can be affected, and departments, including Environmental Protection and Food and Drug Administration, are likely to see signal.
Federal workers were considered necessary and forced them to work through free closure, and they eventually received their salaries after the previous closure – but it is not clear whether the Trump administration will support that time.
Historically, things did not go well for the party, which is seen as an incitement to close. At this stage, opinion polls indicate that more Americans will blame Republicans in the event of a closure – but most people have not bother.
A Yugov poll On Thursday, it was found that 37 % of American adults will blame either President Trump or Republicans in Congress if the government closes – compared to 25 % who blame Democrats and 26 % who blame both parties on an equal footing. Mid -September Verasight poll I found that if Democrats voted against a financing bill after Republicans refused to restore health care financing, more Americans will blame Republicans (35 %) of Democrats (24 %), with 32 % of blame for both.
The closures have become increasingly common in recent years, although the party that has raised it was almost unable to extract policy concessions. However, the effects of the party on which the blameful condemnation have been increasingly passing through.
When the Republicans forced a series of closure in 1995 and 1996 – the first time in the modern era that the closure was paid for political reasons – they paid a price in the ballot box, where President Bill Clinton was re -elected even after his survey numbers had appeared.
Republicans in the 16 -day government closure council did not earn them on Obamakar anything, and may have contributed to the party’s loss in Virginia next month. But after one year, the Republicans were connecting in the middle of the period.
Democrats forced a three -day closure during Mr. Trump’s first term in early 2018 on immigration issues, but they quickly calmed down after the Democratic Senator Joe Mancin from West Virginia with retirement if they did not retreat. It had no effect on the strong performance of the party in the mid -term elections.
Shortly later, Mr. Trump forced the government to close for 35 days in late 2018 and early 2019, the longest in the history of the United States, to try to force the Democrats to finance a border wall. He did not get anything for that, and his reconnaissance numbers fell shortly, but the political repercussions faded quickly.
This year, Democrats are at the top ruling ruling races with elections in November in Virginia and New Jersey. Especially in Virginia, the home of many federal workers, the closure carries risks. Even if it has a little effect on the middle of next year, this may be a cold comfort for Democrats if the Trump administration uses the moment as an opportunity to increase the reduction in the federal workforce.
Doug Hai, the Republican strategic expert, was working with a member of the House of Representatives in 2013 when Republican leaders were reluctantly supported by a batch of members and files and forced the closure, just two weeks later.
He believes that Democrats do the same now – seeking a battle to set their base without a realistic goal. Mr. Hai says: He is like a football player who scores a special goal, “and talks about how difficult to kick the ball.”
He adds that the president, who has sought from the first day to expand his powers while lowering the federal government is likely to exercise as much pressure as possible in this situation.
“A long possibility [shutdown] “It is a position that gives the executive branch more power, so why does it not want Trump?” Says Mr. Hai.