The IMF believes the global economy is still “in flux”, but Trump’s influence is real – and Australians are not being fooled | Greg Jericho
TThe International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast for the world economy, released on Wednesday, doesn’t mention Trump’s name once in its 166 pages, but he appears throughout the report as his economic policies continue to make life difficult for everyone. But while the International Monetary Fund reports that Trump’s impact on the global economy has not yet been fully realized, Australian holidaymakers have already made their judgment call and are abandoning the US in droves.
The IMF always likes to be polite. Titled “Global Economic Prospects for October 2025”The global economy is in a state of flux, and the outlook remains bleak“Instead of saying, ‘Trump remains subdued, who knows what the hell will happen.’”
Perhaps the worst aspect of Trump’s character is the way his actions, whether political, economic or social, are viewed with concern at first, but then many in the media, and even our government, try to suggest that nothing has changed.
But things are not normal. Whether it’s calling for the imprisonment of the mayor of Chicago and the governor of Illinois, bragging about extrajudicial killings, or suggesting that American generals use American cities.As a training area for our army“Things in the United States are very far from normal.
You might think that our government, which is now spending billions on OCOs, might reflect that the United States is rapidly being run by an increasingly authoritarian regime, and contemplate this disconnect from normal life. But no.
The International Monetary Fund notes that the global economy is not immune to this disconnect.
Trump’s initial tariff announcements in April caused major panic in the global economy and stock markets. However, the effect remained largely muted. Investors mostly continued to press ahead, ignoring that while the tariffs may not be what Trump initially announced, they remain significantly higher than they have been in decades:
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In April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the US economy would grow by only 1.8%; Now it has revised this up to 2.0%. Likewise, in April, the International Monetary Fund believed Australia would be hurt by the US-China shootout and cut its estimate for Australian economic growth to 1.6%. Now it has been revised to 1.8%:
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But we are not back to normal, and no one should think we are. The IMF notes that although trade uncertainty is lower than in April, compared to any other time, chaos prevails.
It is true that US trade policy is about half as uncertain as it was in April, but it remains approximately 3,860% more uncertain than it was one year ago:
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The main reason the US or global economy did not deteriorate due to the Trump administration’s policies is that he sent a message so clear that everyone put in orders to implement them before the tariffs took effect. “This gave a temporary boost to global activity in early 2025,” the IMF notes.
Some investors and our government may be treating Trump’s situation as “normal,” but Australians themselves are clearly not fooled.
this week, Numbers of arrivals and departures abroad August showed we are back in overseas travel in record numbers, while the number of tourists coming to Australia continues to slowly recover from Covid:
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Although you may have been monitoring your friends’ Instagram posts during their Northern Hemisphere vacations, chances are there are a lot less from the US than used to be the case:
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Overall, Australians’ travel habits since the pandemic have moved away from the US. Last year, the number of travelers to the United States was down 28% compared to the year before the pandemic. The only other places to see a larger decline are Russia and Israel And New Caledonia – Three countries are currently involved in wars or civil unrest.
But the latest numbers also show Trump’s outsized influence. Ten per cent fewer Australians traveled to the US in August this year than last year. This was the only decline among our 10 most popular travel destinations.
And it wasn’t just a one-month anomaly. Travel to the United States during June, July and August also decreased by 3% compared to last year:
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The Trump effect is real.
Australians were not the only ones who ignored the United States. last year Tourism economics The number of international arrivals to the United States is expected to increase by 9% in 2025; Now you expect a decline of 8.2%.
The global economy is full of uncertainties, and the International Monetary Fund notes that things remain “in a state of flux.”
But people around the world, including Australians, have no such confusion. They are certain that Trump has made the United States less attractive, and in contrast to investors and the government that continue to cling to Okos, they do not view his authoritarian rhetoric and policies as normal.