The US presidential elections represent a crossroads in the road for Ukraine

VOlodymyr ZelenskiyUkraine’s president visited America in September to speak at the United Nations and present his “Victory Plan” to his American sponsors. The trip didn’t go well. Zelensky criticized Donald Trump and angered Republicans by appearing alongside Democrats at a munitions factory. Biden administration officials were appalled by his proposal to end the war.

Zelensky has had positive-sounding meetings with both Kamala Harris and Trump. The outcome of the race is likely to have a major impact on Ukraine’s future. Talk of the endgame is growing, including thorny questions about whether the next US president might be willing to invite Ukraine to join. NATO. However, neither candidate offered any clarity on strategy or presented a credible plan to change the dynamic on the ground.

This dynamic is bleak. As Ukraine approaches the end of its third year of war, its army has made almost no progress since retaking the Kherson region’s capital in 2022. Russia has been making slow, grinding gains, and at a high cost. America estimates that more than half a million Russians were killed or wounded.

Prospects for peace seem distant. Zelensky insists his goal remains to redraw Ukraine’s 1991 borders, including the Crimean peninsula, which has been in Russian hands for more than a decade. Vladimir Putin’s strategy is to wait for the West, and he has shown no interest in ending the war on his terms. However, neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians have demonstrated the military muscle necessary to achieve the results they seek.

Ms. Harris mostly echoed Joe Biden’s rhetoric on Ukraine, saying she would stand with the country and seek continued military aid. She did not say much about whether or how she would depart from Biden’s policy, which she tempered due to his fear of escalation of the conflict between the two parties. NATO And Russia. Trump has been inconsistent but also vague, promising to end the war immediately and urging Russia and Ukraine to come to the negotiating table.

It will not be possible to avoid difficult choices after the next president takes office. America provided Ukraine with support worth about $174 billion, the last of which was through an aid bill worth $61 billion in April. The Pentagon could extend aid packages, and Biden may persuade Congress to pass more legislation between the election and the inauguration of his successor. But the next president will have to decide whether to provide more aid, and what caveats to attach to it.

Republicans, especially in the House of Representatives, where they hold the majority, have become noticeably cooler on Ukraine. If Democrats regain the House of Representatives and the presidency, aid to Ukraine will likely continue to flow, even if control of the Senate shifts to Republicans, as is likely, according to Reuters. The EconomistPrediction model. Complete Republican control of Washington will be more difficult for Zelensky. If Trump is elected, another uncertainty is whether he will empower internationalists like Mike Pompeo, the first Central Intelligence Agency Director and Secretary of State, or ideological isolationists like J.D. Vance, Vice President.

No one in the Biden White House believes that Ukraine is capable of reclaiming Crimea by military means. This implies that it will require some final negotiations with Russia eventually. Trump’s promise to quickly end the war is unbelievable. However, there is widespread recognition that talks may be necessary sooner rather than later, and that Ukraine’s beleaguered population may be open to some trade-offs. Opinion polls show that more than half the country would accept the loss of Donbass and Crimea in exchange for regaining sovereignty over the occupied parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson. About 38% of Ukrainians say they would be willing to accept current territorial borders if the country were admitted to the European Union and received funding for reconstruction. This number rises to 47% if Ukraine’s accession is welcomed NATO– This is perhaps the most sensitive question for the next president.

In a joint statement, NATOThe bloc’s 32 members said in July that Ukraine was on an “irreversible” path toward joining the alliance. So far, Biden has been skeptical about extending a formal invitation to membership, which Kiev is keenly seeking. Doing so would come with its own set of problems, given that the country is at war. But think creatively about how to exploit the potential NATO Membership as leverage against Putin and to support Ukraine’s recovery could help stabilize the conflict and potentially end or reduce extreme violence.

The truth is that Mr. Zelensky and his allies in Europe and Washington have not yet developed a realistic plan for how to win the war. On the other hand, Putin’s Russia is weaker than Ukraine and the West combined, but it hopes to outlast his enemies. Zelensky remains a powerful figure in Ukrainian resilience, but his popularity at home is declining. He can only hope that the next US president will devote his efforts to developing a reasonable vision of success. ■

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