Trump calls climate science a “trick job.” This can make handling the crisis much easier Francesco Grillo
TDonald Trump told the United Nations last month that the climate crisis is “the greatest scam ever perpetrated in the world.” with These words The US President rejected the international scientific consensus and evidence that we can all check every day with a basal thermometer. He also announced that he would withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, which was signed in 2015 by 195 UN countries. The United States joins an axis of deniers including Yemen, Iran, and Libya, countries that signed the agreement but never ratified it.
Ironically, Trump’s retreat provides an opportunity for others to advance the climate agenda: charting a possible new world order without the United States, even if Washington is the architect of the old order.
A new arrangement could emerge at the UN climate summit, Cop30, in Brazil next month. Success will depend on the leadership capacity of an unlikely duo: the host nation, one of the founding BRICS countries, and the European Union, which remains the core political community in a divided Western alliance.
There is always a grain of truth in what Trump claims. He’s not entirely wrong when he does Accuses The United Nations being toothless. As he said in his speech: “All they seem to do is write a strongly worded letter and then never follow up on that letter.”
In 1995, Angela Merkel, then Germany’s environment minister, opened the first Cuban conference in Berlin, saying global warming was “the greatest political challenge.” However, 30 cops and 30 years later, the numbers seem to indicate that decades of “words” have only produced more hot air.
In 1995, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 23.5 billion tons; After 30 years, the level reached a new record 38 billion tons. When Merkel first tried to reach an agreement on gradually halting the use of fossil fuels, 85% of total energy consumption came from oil, gas and coal. Today, that just happens decreased to 80%. Even more worrying is that while 10 years ago in Paris we all accepted that global temperature rise would need to remain well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels in order not to lose control of Europe’s “weather machine”, according to Copernicus ObservatoryWe have already crossed the 2.4C mark.
Clearly we are failing. Multilateralism is in crisis, and this may be one reason why populists like Trump are so attractive. But the rest of the world now has a (final) chance to show that “global” problems can still be solved collectively. Trump’s decision withdraw us Creating a global system to address the climate crisis could be the window of opportunity we’ve been waiting for. An opportunity somewhat similar to the one that European Union countries took advantage of in 2020 when they reached an unprecedented agreement on addressing the economic damage caused by the pandemic. Reaching a consensus on issuing a common debt was only possible because the United Kingdom, which has traditionally been skeptical on this issue, distanced itself from the European Union.
But what exactly to do in the next US-free cop? Some of the most difficult issues facing Cop30 are at risk of being lost in bitter negotiations: for example, the “loss and damage” facility, which was intended to compensate poor countries for climate-related disasters. Other discussions – such as those about the energy transition – appear paralyzed by opposition from interest groups such as farmers, homeowners, or European automakers, who fear they will have to foot the bill.
The goal is still the right goal, but the language, metrics, and incentives must change. We must make clear, first and foremost, that mitigating the effects of the climate crisis represents an opportunity for creativity. The debate cannot always revolve around who bears the costs and who is entitled to compensation. Ultimately, this is about an investment that will make our societies more resilient to global warming and less dependent on an unstable and expensive energy model.
Equally important is the method we use to solve such global challenges. Policing, for example, has an outcome-to-cost ratio that no one would call “sustainable.” Are these conferences a must? Moving to a different country every year? What about holding the meeting permanently in one place or a small number of places, each focusing on a set of specific challenges?
Perhaps it is time to refocus Cope’s mission: today it involves diplomats frantically negotiating the wording of a final statement, along with thousands of side events that have no bearing on the decision-making process. They can instead focus on solutions to climate-related problems based on global best practices, so that policymakers can determine how to scale up successful solutions.
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Both sides are the key to the next cop. Brazil, as the host country, needs to make significant progress. The European Union, as the part of the world most vulnerable to trade wars and no longer able to rely on the United States, desperately needs new friends.
Brazil and the European Union must come together around a practical agenda. Alongside them should be India, Canada, the UK, Australia (host of the Cop31 conference) and, yes, China. These seven may not be like-minded on many vital issues, but they still account for about half of global emissions, population and GDP. I would argue that if they reach an agreement most other parties will follow suit.
The United States under the influence of Trump and his followers is out of action, and will remain so for the foreseeable future, even though it shares the same planetary and climate conditions – including life-threatening wildfires and blizzards – as the rest of us. This is a terrible mistake, but at least the opportunity now exists to shape a world capable of functioning more efficiently in the absence of a hegemonic power. As the climate debate reaches a crossroads, we must seize it.
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Francesco Grillo is a visiting fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, and director of the research center Vision