Trump’s Great bet: Americans will tolerate
President Trump’s coincidences with Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union reach a huge economic and political gamble: Americans will bear the months or years of economic pain in exchange for the distant hope in the re -manufacture of American heart.
It is greatly fraught with risks. In recent days, Mr. Trump, despite all his confident predictions in his campaign, admitted that “we will flourish as we have not flourished before”, that the United States may tend to stagnate, fueled by his economic agenda. But in the year and private, he was arguing that “a little turmoil” in the economy and markets is a little price to pay in exchange for the re -manufacturing of jobs to America.
Its closest political partners are multiplied by the strategy. “President Trump’s economic policies are simple,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on social media on Monday. “If you invest and create job opportunities in America, they will be rewarded. We will reduce regulations and reduce taxes. But if you are building outside the United States, you are alone.”
The last time Mr. Trump tried something like this, during his first term, was a failure. In 2018, 25 percent of the tariffs on steel and 10 percent of the customs tariffs on aluminum, while maintaining that it was protecting US national security and that definitions would eventually create more jobs in the United States. Prices jumped, and there was a temporary increase of about 5,000 jobs throughout the country. During the epidemic, some definitions have been raised, and today the industry employs almost the number of Americans.
However, the most worrying thing was the collection of studies that followed the country He lost tens of thousands of jobs Up to 75,000, through one study – in industries that were dependent on steel and aluminum imports. The result of the watch also decreased by American steel makers, while the productivity of manufacturing in general increased in the United States.
The experience that Mr. Trump is now much larger. And the reprisals imposed on American manufacturers-with Europeans who aim to Kentucky Bourbon, as well as boats and motorcycles Harley Davidson made in the hallmarks such as Michigan and Pennsylvania-are wonderfully designed to cause pain in the places where the supporters of Mr. Trump will feel more.
“If Trump is serious about what he says about adhering to these definitions, he is betting on his presidency of their success, and the patience of the American people, in a moment when people do not appear in the mood of patient.”
Mr. Trump is unlikely to bend. He has argued with decades for decades, convinced of their ability to end what he claims to be an era in which the United States blew up its allies and opponents alike. While many of his senior economic aides, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Payette, were never known for defending the wide tariff in the past, they all know that adhering to Mr. Trump’s opinion of geological science is the price of keeping a place for power and influencing the economic club in the administration.
“To the extent that the practices of another country harm our economy and people, the United States will respond,” Mr. Pesin will respond He said last week In a letter to the Economic Club in New York. “This is America’s first commercial policy.”
The truth is that Mr. Trump’s arguments to impose a customs tariff throughout the map, as a series of businessmen executives – have not previously been registered – after visiting the White House in recent weeks. Michael Freman, the American commercial actor from 2013 to 2017 and now the head of the Foreign Relations Council, is distilled the arguments of Mr. Trump in three categories.
“When the president considers the customs tariff, he usually thinks about three things: leverage, revenues and resetting.”
“The financial lever is working, at the present time,” he said. Mexico and Canada have reached plans to reduce the amount of fentanel that crosses the border, even if they delivered the programs of Mr. Trump that they previously implemented, but they re -filed or revived them in response to his demands. It is strange that Canada has suffered some of the most difficult definitions, although very little from the entry of the fentian who enters the United States comes across the Canadian border. “What he wants is a complete collapse of the Canadian economy, because this will be implicit,” said Justin Trudeau, the departure Prime Minister in Canada last week.
But Mr. Freman claims that the White House already sees decreasing returns from his strategy. He said: “You can do this once or twice and bring people to the table, but at some point the two countries say we will take revenge,” as Canada and the European Union are now.
Mr. Trump also loves the idea that definitions bring revenues. He has Opening title He spoke wonderfully about President William McKinley, who prompted the huge customs tariffs in the nineties of the nineteenth century, and argued that this period was a high point of American economic policy. “Instead of imposing taxes on our citizens to enrich other countries, we will target and tax on foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” said Mr. Trump on January 20. For this purpose, we establish the outpatient revenue service to collect all customs duties, duties and revenues. Huge amounts of money will flow into our cabinet, which comes from foreign sources. “
But again, the facts are not always secreted in this way. While the US government brought more than 60 billion dollars in definitions from China in Mr. Trump’s first state, it compensates for American farmers who have been in the definitions imposed by Beijing. This costs nearly.
The final justification of Mr. Trump for definitions is that they will return to jobs to the United States. It is a concept rooted in its depths and political history; It expresses his little interest in studying experimental studies that may weaken the image.
Of course, as much as Mr. Trump wants to see all the products made in the United States, there is a reason why countries trade together. Some have a relative feature of making some products. Others are in a different stage of development. Sometimes countries do not want to falter in the production of low -tech products when they can raise the ladder. North Boston cities took control of the country’s shoe industry throughout the nineteenth century; Today is famous for the startups for software, law firms and some of the most expensive real estate in the country.
But in Mr. Trump’s vision of the world, as he himself admitted in an interview with him in 2016, traditional manufacturing is important. He said that the fifties of the twentieth century were ideal for him, when he ruled American industrialization and higher power.
It is not affected when economists who attack his identification plans indicate that auto parts may move dozens of times across the border with Canada before the final installation of an American producing vehicle, which will be more expensive because of its definitions on Canada. Or that the advanced designs of the most advanced semiconductors will go back and forth to the semiconductors in Taiwan, the most successful chips maker in the world, before producing the chips itself in Taiwan – even if the intellectual property inherent in the design is American.
There is one thing in which Mr. Trump and his predecessor Joseph R participated. Biden Junior, the desire to return these chips to the United States. Mr. Biden’s approach was the Chips Law, which went through the support of the two parties and more than $ 50 billion in federal funds to start investments in the most advanced chips manufacturing factories. The concept has already started in Mr. Trump’s first term, although at the end of his speech to Congress last week, he refused.
He said to the legislators: “Doing your chips is a terrible and terrible thing.” “We give hundreds of billions of dollars, and this does not mean anything. They take our money, and do not spend it.”
The solution is definitions, and concluded. If the same chips are manufactured in the United States, they will be free from customs tariffs.
His problem is the problem of timing. It takes years to build the most advanced chips. (Intel has just been at least four years late, one factory promised to be opened in Ohio in 2025 or 2026.) And even when building it, the United States will continue to rely on Taiwan for about 80 percent of the most advanced semiconductors.
It is not clear whether voters will be ready to wait a long time to get the results.