Trump’s tariff may be 10 % less famous, but it still raises prices and threatens trade
When Donald C defected. Trump about the idea of a 10 percent blanket tariff during the campaign, many people, whether they were with or against, were surprised by the radical idea of the idea.
The warnings about high inflation, lost function, slow growth or recession appeared. The possibility seemed so strange that most of the economists and Wall Street who have canceled these possibilities tend to treat customs tariffs by 10 percent simply as a tool for bargaining.
Now, after a quick series of ads from the White House, which he promised, imposed, imposed, delayed and increased definitions, it seems that the 10 percent solution appears to be the most moderate, not more revolutionary option, especially now that the incendiary trade war between China and the United States shoots.
After 10 percent of the customs tariff did not lose a bite.
At this level, global definitions still reach more than 10 times the number of imports that target the first period of Mr. Trump, which is much higher and wider than anything that the United States has tried more than 90 years ago.
Carsten Barzky, chief economist in the euro area in Ing, a Dutch bank, said the tariff rate is “very extreme.” “It still brings us back to the levels that were last seen during the thirties.”
In addition to the measures targeting China, Mr. Trump has operated a long list of punishment taxes – including a 10 percent flat tariff on most imports – on April 9.
“For the American customer, this means that everything will become more expensive,” said Mr. Brzeski.
Former researchers estimated The cost of customs tariffs by 10 percent will cost the American medium family from $ 1700 to $ 2,350 a year.
The shift to, for example, an American brand cheaper than mustard instead of the French may save the shopper less than he hoped. When the customs tariff rises on a foreign commodity, local manufacturers can seize this opportunity to raise their own prices.
Neil Shering, the group’s chief economist in Capital Economs, said his team reformulated his outlook the day after the election of Mr. Trump, assuming that there will be 10 percent of the collective tariff in addition to higher taxes on Chinese and cars imports.
“It was an extremist, but it was not unreasonable,” said Mr. Sharing. Inflation will rise and production will decrease, but the review did not expect the United States to decline in recession.
However, the assumptions on tariff levels were considered radical at the time. Mr. Sharing said: “I only spent two and a half months to talk to the clients who said:” You cannot seriously think that this will happen. “
Today, with the definition policies that threaten the raising of the global economy, such a report will be received with relief.
Economists and policy makers are still wondering that the American president threw the world alone in these economic turmoil and then celebrated them.
Consumer and business confidence has decreased. Uncertainty paralyits, from a new house or a car to a new factory. Investors have indicated their lack of belief in the American economy by selling treasury bonds, traditional haven when expectations are grievance.
Of course, the conflict between the United States, the largest consumer in the world and China, the largest manufacturer in the world, overwhelms other measures. Washington and Beijing struck each other with a three -digit tariff along with a group of other commercial restrictions on critical elements such as rare ground minerals, magnets and semi -conductors.
Mr. Trump talked about an additional tariff on chips and pharmaceutical preparations, while China and countries are looking at how to take revenge.
The total package of the definitions that are currently in effect can cause global trade to a decrease of 5 percent this year, according to estimates from Oxford Economics on Monday. This is similar to what happened when the epidemic suffered a trade in 2020, or the world sank in the recession in 1975.
Oxford said that such a decrease in trade would remove billions of goods and services produced by the world, and expect the total growth segment by 1 percent.
China and the United States lead a lot of global economy. If their wealth is suffering from economies in the world, especially the poor, poor and young, which will find less demand for their goods and services.
African countries, for example, do not circulate much with the United States, but sell important goods such as oil and copper. These prices decrease as fears of recession all over the world. This means that an oil -exporting country like Nigeria is likely to earn less money, increase pressure on government budgets and hinder its ability to pay debts.
It was possible to avoid a lot of expected economic damage if the customs tariff was not offered in this chaotic way. If there is a recession in the United States this year, she said, she said that this synchronous delivery may be what he paid on the line.
Video photos: Benoit Tessier/Reuters; Erik S. Lesser/EPA, via Shutterstock; Scott Olson and Justin Sullivan/Getty Emp; Jim Watson/AFP, via Getty Images; Brian Anasel, Lian Milton and Carton Moran for the New York Times