UFC 321 expert picks and best bets: Would anyone take Cyril Jean to upset Tom Aspinall?
Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will finally make his anticipated return to the Octagon against former interim champion Cyril Jeanne this Saturday in Abu Dhabi (2 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV, prelims at 10 a.m.). In just eight fights in the UFC, Aspinall has distinguished himself among the heavyweights due to his quick work. He holds the UFC record for shortest average fight time at two minutes and two seconds. He has also won every one of his professional MMA fights by stoppage. He faces the fourth most accurate heavyweight in UFC history in Gene (61.3% uppercut accuracy), who is on a two-fight winning streak.
A new champion is guaranteed to be crowned in the co-main event between Verna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight championship. Jandiroba, ranked No. 2 on ESPN, enters the weekend with the longest winning streak in the division at No. 5. Dern, ranked No. 6, is hoping for a repeat of UFC 256 five years ago, when she defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators offer their predictions for the UFC title fight, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight into the value bets available on both fight cards.
Heavyweight title fight
I think this fight will be a lot like Gene losing to Jon Jones in 2023, to be honest. It probably won’t end as quickly as this submission did two minutes into the first round. The battle would continue as long as it took Aspinall to bring down Jane. Jin has the power, I’m not saying he doesn’t have a chance. You always have a chance with that kind of power. But he doesn’t knock people out early in fights. Tom is patient and will find his chance. –Anthony Smith
I think it will be relatively close in the first two rounds, with a lot of reading and setting traps in between. But then Tom’s speed will begin to assert itself as the fight progresses, and it will be difficult for Cyril to stop the first breakout move with his right hand consistently. That right hand would be the punch that would finally take Jane down. –Dean Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds are accurate as of October 23. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Aspinall wins inside the distance (-800). Aspinall will finally step into the cage for the first time this year after waiting for a match with Jon Jones that never came to fruition. He’s facing the kickboxer and multiple-time title challenger, who is perhaps the most technical striker, but Aspinall can end a fight with a single punch at any moment. The biggest contrast between the two leaders lies in the ground match. The Aspinall wrestler will be light years ahead of Gane in every aspect when the fight hits the ground. Look for Aspinall to use his jab before working his way to a takedown, but if a takedown occurs, the end will be near for Gane.
Strawweight title fight
Jandiroba is a wrestler at heart, but Dern is just one better. McKenzie is better in the main way Jandiroba wins fights. That’s not to say Jandiroba can’t hit, but that’s not how she usually gets her wins. Dern can handle anything Jandiroba does on the ground, and she’s much stronger on her feet. –Anthony Smith
Jandiroba will get the better of Dern in the first two rounds, but Jandiroba will tire herself out in the process. Dern’s pressure, determination and competitiveness would see her win the final three rounds and walk away with the belt 48-47. –Dean Thomas
Betting analysis
Parker: Jandiroba for the win (+135). Jandiroba and Dern will compete in the co-main event to crown the new queen of the strawweight division. Both women are world class on the ground, and the fight is evenly matched on the feet as well. The difference here is that Dern tends to throw aggressively on her feet, making her vulnerable to counterattacks. Between the two, Jandiroba has been the more impressive with better competition in her last few fights and at weak odds, take Jandiroba to pull off the upset.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the fight card
Lightweight: Ludovit Klein vs. Matthews Rebicki
Klein to win (-150). In what should be a fun fight, Klein is currently the favorite, and I would love for him to get the win here. On the feet, Klein is the best and most accurate striker. He pumps a ton of size and tends to keep himself out of trouble, which will come in handy against Rebecki, who only lands single strikes but with tremendous power. Even though Rybicki is the better wrestler, Klein has tremendous defense and should be able to keep the fight going, as he has the advantage.
Featherweight: Jose Miguel Delgado vs. Nathaniel Wood
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Jose Delgado lands a vicious knee en route to a knockout win
Jose Delgado landed a big knee on Haider Amil and eliminated him by knockout after only 26 seconds of their fight.
Delgado to win (-150). Despite Wood’s success at 9-3 in the UFC, it’s hard to ignore how impressive his opponent has been since he earned a UFC contract with a second-round knockout win at “Dana White’s Contender Series” last August. He needed just under three minutes of fight time to knock out his first UFC opponent, Connor Matthews, in February, then followed that up with a knee to the face by knockout Haider Amiel 26 seconds into the fight at UFC 317 in June. He went on to KO both of his first two UFC opponents in the first round. Both Wood and Delgado are extremely durable, but Delgado’s speed and incredible, unpredictable combinations may be too much for Wood. Look for Delgado to move forward and get off to a fast start, without allowing Wood to dictate the pace. Wood is a very difficult player for anyone in the division, but Delgado has the skill set to defeat the skilled veteran.