UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Garcia vs. Onama
David Onama and Steve Garcia headline their first fight card inside the Octagon when the featherweights face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m.).
Onama enters the fight riding a four-fight winning streak. His most recent victory was a unanimous decision over Giga Chikadze in April. Garcia has an unbeaten streak dating back to October 2022. He has won six straight fights, including a unanimous decision over Calvin Kattar in his last appearance in July.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their key predictions for the events, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight into the value bets available on the card.
Featherweight main event
prediction: Garcia wins by knockout.
Steve Garcia is a fugitive, and he is a breath of fresh air for this division and this sport. It is somewhat of a successor to Justin Gaethje’s fighting style. This pressure and willingness to stand in the pocket will affect Onama and knock him out. –Dean Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds are accurate as of October 30. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Garcia to win (-135). In his last round, Garcia showed that he can maintain his strength and high pace for three rounds. As long as Onama can’t overpower him and keep him there for long periods, expect Garcia to win the fight on the feet with his size and strength. Onama has taken a lot of damage in the UFC, and a clean shot from Garcia could put him to sleep if he’s not careful.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Heavyweight: Waldo Curtis Acosta vs. Ante Deliga
Deliga for the win (-135). After losing to Sergei Pavlovich two months ago, Curtis Acosta faces another powerful, athletic striker in Delija. Among fighters, Delija is more well-rounded and could take this fight to the ground if he struggles on his feet against Curtis Acosta. Delija has had back-to-back knockout victories, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did that here as well. I like the odds of Delija getting his second straight win inside the octagon.
Women’s bantamweight: Caitlin Vieira vs. Norma Dumont
Dumont to win (-175). Dumont is looking for her sixth straight win against Vieira, and if she gets it, it could give her a title shot. Although Vieira has skill and power, she will likely have a hard time countering Dumont’s power game and ground control. Look for Dumont to put pressure early, overpower Vieira and maintain control for most of the fight.
Strawweight: Talita Alencar vs. Arian Carnelossi
Denial of winning a submission or decision. Unless Carnelossi can catch Alencar with a knockdown early in the fight, expect Alencar to apply her world-class jiu-jitsu skills to pick up her second straight win. In her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos, who I think is a stronger opponent than Carnelosi, Alencar won in all aspects of the fight. I expect the same type of fight against Carnelossi. Alencar is the better striker and has shown great durability in previous fights. If she can’t drop her opponent right away, look for her to leverage her kickboxing sophistication to score points and win rounds.