What Andrew Cuomo’s Narrow Path Back to New York City Will Look Like: From the Policy Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the policy officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis of the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki explores how Andrew Cuomo could close the gap with Zahran Mamdani in the final week of the New York City mayoral race. Additionally, Ben Kamisar looks at how Republicans are funneling more of their ad dollars to the ballot in Virginia.
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– Adam Woolner
What would Cuomo’s narrow path back to New York City look like?
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The New York City mayoral election may not be a done deal for Zahran Mamdani.
The Democratic candidate enjoyed a significant lead in the opinion polls and benefited from a divided opposition among several competing candidates. He remains the favorite to win next Tuesday.
But there are signs that Mamdani has not yet put the race aside, the most important of which is a new poll conducted by Suffolk University showing his lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Back down to 10 pips — half what it was when the same pollsters polled voters last month. This tightening comes after Mayor Eric Adams dropped his re-election bid a few weeks ago, and much of his support is now shifting to Cuomo.
Overall, Mamdani leads with 44% approval, with Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 11%, according to the new Suffolk poll. That Mamdani’s support level remains below 50% four months after winning the Democratic nomination indicates some real resistance to his candidacy and leaves him vulnerable to any further opposition consolidation. The poll found that half of Cuomo’s support comes from voters who say they are simply voting against Mamdani.
Saliwa remains adamant that he will not leave the race, and it is clear that the more support he retains, the safer Mamdani’s position becomes. But there is danger for Mamdani, a democratic socialist, in the vicissitudes of this latest week. The scale of attacks has become louder, public scrutiny has become more intense, and many more New Yorkers are willing to absorb them. The already existing reservations about Mamdani can be strengthened and new ones can be planted. In this atmosphere, the danger for Mamdani is that voters recognize Cuomo as the only viable alternative, and are essentially self-reinforcing — that is, they avoid Sliwa, turn a blind eye, and tag Cuomo.
Extrapolating from voting data before Election Day can lead to specious conclusions, but it’s at least worth noting that the first few days of early voting in New York City It has paid off so far An older and broader electorate than was seen in the Democratic primaries in June. Any chance for Cuomo depends on this becoming a reality. In the Suffolk poll, he is ahead among voters over 45 and ahead of voters under 45.
And Cuomo himself remains a highly imperfect means of opposing Mamdani. It remains unpopular, with a 42%/47% positive rating. If these elections are a referendum on him, he will easily lose. If he wins, it will be in spite of him — and only because enough voters ended up having deeper reservations about his opponent.
Virginia Republicans are spending more on the race for attorney general than on the governor’s office
Written by Ben Kamisar
In states with high-profile gubernatorial races, candidates on the ballot typically rely on the top of the ticket for support.
But in Virginia, that dynamic was upended in the closing stretch of this year’s campaign, at least on the airwaves.
Republicans have spent more on TV ads in recent weeks on the race for attorney general — where the Democratic nominee’s past violent text messages have muddied the race — than on the high-profile contest for governor, where the GOP nominee is the underdog.
The bulk of Republican ad spending in those two state races, where campaign finance rules allow outside groups to donate directly to candidates, came from Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears, the state’s gubernatorial candidate, and Attorney General Jason Miyares.
According to ad tracking firm AdImpact, Earl Sears’ campaign spent more than $8.1 million on ads in September, compared with about $5.5 million from the Miyares camp.
But those numbers flipped in October — $10.2 million from Miyares and $7.5 million from Earl Sears.
A weekly analysis of Virginia ad spending highlights how GOP spending in the attorney general’s race has jumped in the last month, with Democratic candidate Jay Jones facing criticism for suggesting in private text messages three years ago that the then-Republican House speaker was taking “two bullets to the head.”
Recent public opinion polls have shown Earl Sears trailing Spanberger by 7 to 12 percentage points, while the two attorney general candidates are found to be neck-and-neck.
Read more from Ben →
🗞️ Other top news of the day
- 🌍 Ceasefire falters: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “powerful” air strikes on Gaza, putting the fragile US-brokered ceasefire at risk. Read more →
- ➡️More hits: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US military carried out three strikes on four ships in the eastern Pacific Ocean that were allegedly trafficking drugs. Read more →
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine War Update: A recent US intelligence assessment warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin is more determined than ever to continue the war in Ukraine and achieve victory on the battlefield. Read more →
- ⛔ Shutdown, day 28: Democratic leaders from 25 states have sued the Department of Agriculture over the impending suspension of the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, with benefits expected to dry up across the country this weekend. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, of Georgia, criticized her party’s shutdown strategy during a heated conference call.
- 📈 Migration agenda: The Trump administration plans to replace some regional Immigration and Customs Enforcement leaders with Border Patrol officials in an effort to ramp up mass deportation efforts amid growing frustration with the pace of daily arrests. Read more →
- 📝 The automatic pen is stronger: The Republican-led House Oversight Committee confirmed in a report that some of the executive actions signed by then-President Joe Biden, including his pardon, were “illegitimate.” Read more →
- ⚖️ In the courts: Trump’s lawyers have formally appealed his criminal conviction in New York for falsifying business records, saying the case against the president was improperly based on “trumped-up criminal charges.” Read more →
- 🗳️Sprint until November: California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the state will send its own observers to monitor federal election monitors deployed by the Trump administration. Read more →
- 💻 Watch with artificial intelligence: Two senators announced bipartisan legislation to crack down on tech companies that make artificial intelligence chatbot companions available to minors. Read more →
- Follow live political updates →
That’s all from the Policy Office for now. Today’s newsletter is compiled by Adam Woolner.
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