What can happen if the United States abandons Europe
The Trump administration has completely raised European -American relations, and the global order may have been permanently torn as it was present for eight decades. Last week, in Munich, Vice President JD Vance amazed European diplomats by telling them that the biggest threat to their societies came from immigration and their own attempts to the right -wing extremist political parties, not from Vladimir Putin. After that, a few days later, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and American negotiators met with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine. (Ukraine was not invited. This week, Trump blamed Ukraine in the war, before transferring some lies about Zelinski’s popularity, describing him as a dictator (Trump also expressed his support for a Russian proposal that Ukraine is holding elections before giving a role in peace talks. ))
The response in Europe to this whirlwind was a mixture of panic and confusion, as European parties from left to center are going on the fact that the Atlantic Ocean alliance could be in a state of disintegration. To understand what this means, I recently spoken on the phone with Ivan Cquestif, an expert in European politics, and a permanent colleague at the Institute of Humanities, in Vienna. During our conversation, which was liberated for length and clarity, we discussed how Trump’s movements could affect the European right, and why the European main current was useless in preparing for Trump, and whether Trump had a major ideological vision of how the United States operates in the world.
I was thinking that we might look back this month as one of the amazing importance for the European continent, such as the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, or even the fall of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. Have you thought?
Hear, like you, I see this is a major political rupture, and at the level of change that we saw in 1989 and 1990. It is the end of part of European history that began at the end of World War II. It was many people comparison Munich until 1938, saying that Putin was glowing, because Munich was also a site to recover Hitler. I see the American government a revolutionary government. They are not simply trying to reshape the United States – they will reshape the world. They come with a completely different instinct about what to be appreciated and what it should be afraid. From this point of view, we are in a different world.
What was the response in Europe so far?
Trump has long indicated how to look at Europe, and how to look at European governments. The problem is that Europe denied this and rejects it and tried to hide from itself that this would be a revolutionary government. They were trying to remember how Europe dealt with Trump during his first term, not recognizing the difference between Trump I and Trump II.
After Munich, the European response was predicted, not particularly convincing. The meeting in Paris [of European leaders, called by Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, in response to the Trump Administration] On Monday it did not pass well. It is completely doubtful to give Europe on its own security guarantees that Ukraine needs. This meeting was supposed to be a kind of powerful gesture. He was more seen as a gesture of weakness. In general, European politicians can be predicted. The prediction of prediction is a very strong feature of normal. But in the case of disturbances and crisis, such as those we have now, the ability to predict is self -defeat.
The nature of European policy changes. Before, people talked about the liberals, against liberals, scientists, and nationalists. Now we will end with a clash between two different types of nationalists. On the far right, you will see Trump’s right. They see Trump as a model, and they are very hostile, and equivalent to the angels, with a mysterious talk about a Christian heritage in Europe. On the other hand, as a result of Munich, you will see the emergence of a type of main current for non -urinary Europeans, which mainly try to make its legitimacy with voters by resisting American policies. We know this well in other parts of the world. But we see this now in Canada, and we see this in Denmark. I saw this in Germany, during the recent debate before the German elections. All prevailing politicians were looking Strict And more aggressive towards America. Yesterday, American allies will use the center – as was the left or middle information technology center – the language of national dignity and the national interest more than that, and search for legitimacy by fighting American policies.
Do you think that Trump’s behavior at least creates political problems on the far right in Europe?
Yes, completely. There are also tensions between parts of the European right. Nationalism has a history in Europe, so [the French far-right leader] Marine Le Pen to listen to Vans praise [German far-right] AFD cannot be easy. AFD did not allow to become part of the extreme right -wing gathering in the European Parliament, because many French nationalism, even when it is anti -Semitic, is hostile to Germany.
The far right in general will be paid in different directions due to Trump. On Ukraine, of course, a maximum right supports Trump in his effort to peace. But one of the results of a deal like that Trump is following will be a major wave of Ukrainian immigrants to the rest of Europe. If the Ukrainians decide that their country has ended and that the Americans will not grant guarantees and the Russians will control, you can expect many of them to go to Europe, and many of them try to join their families who are already present, and many of them will be the new men. The far right does not want migrants to come, even when they are from Eastern Europe. Therefore, from this point of view, it will be difficult for them to explain to their voters what is good in Trump’s policies. This is why I think we will see a great restructuring of European policy.
The main parties, which were very internationally, tried to bet that the current situation was not really dead. They were talking as if nothing happened. After Munich, no one can do this. Even before that. But now to pretend that nothing happened that makes you simply very ridiculous. This will change a lot of local policy.
It seems basically you think this will create problems for the extreme right. Now the left and the center cannot deny that politics has changed. But it seems that the main parties are in fact very weak in terms of some basic meaning of responding in a coherent and coherent way. How worried about that?
I am very worried. The European Prleons exposed to pressure because Europe is economically problematic. Geologically, Europe suddenly finds itself unrelated and marginalized, and people will blame the main parties of this. Another very important question is, how will nationalism look dirt here? Will it be about the nation -state? Will it be from Europe? how far? There is also the fact that it is not very popular in Western Europe, but in some Eastern European countries, there is more sympathy for Trump, and there is more sympathy for his policies. So we may see more continent’s fragmentation.
Regarding the prevailing reaction, US security is not only guaranteed to Ukraine, but also for Europe for now. Of course, Europe will talk about the larger defense budgets. But you cannot change the situation within months or even in two or three years. The army deficit in Europe is not just a problem with the defense budgets. It is a largely cultural issue. In a contradictory way, Europe is not threatened by its failures, but its successes. The European Union was able to persuade the Europeans that a big war is no longer possible in Europe anymore. Now, when there is a risk of such a war mainly, cultural change in Europe is needed. As you know, cultural change takes time. I expect the confusion period for different places, different countries, and different governments that interact differently. Europe will be reduced to a kind of angry paralysis, because anger is not a policy.