With Trump Condible Havoc, a question for American Democrats: When will you learn? | Timothy Garton ash

NUnbearable more than one person says, “I told you that.” So please forgive me because I am countless. On September 29, 2023, two months after his case in the United States, she published a well -summarized column in his guardian’s title: “Unless Joe Biden stands aside, the world must prepare for President Trump 2.0”. We can never say, “What could happen if …?” But there is a very good opportunity that Biden had cleansed the way for the advice of democracy in the fall of 2023, that Trump could have been stronger. The whole world had survived the disaster that was now unveiled.

“There is no use in crying over pouring milk,” you may say. Yes, but it is always worth learning lessons for the future. I have come back to the United States now, and A modern poll At Wall Street Journal found that 63 % of voters had an unfavorable look at the Democratic Party. In a plain phrase, Democrats have a way to go.

So, what is happening, and all we know now, is the correct lessons? The goal of mentioning my old column is not to show off some of the special ideas for the higher policy in Washington; The point is exactly that I had nothing. It was clear that it was crazy to put an old and weak candidate that would be 86 years old by the end of his second term. For comparison, the leaders of the Soviet Union who we thought as an example of corrosive gerontoccy, in unlimited disappearance moments, 75 (Leonid Brinv), 69 (Yuri Androbov) and 73 (Konstantin Chernnko).

It took no special knowledge to see this and most of the Americans had already done. By the time when I wrote the column, an opinion poll found that 77 % of Americans believe that Biden was too big to be president for another four years. It was only the political insiders, the liberal commentary, and the democratic institution, who continued to agree with the president and his family and what (you cannot compensate) was informally known as the “Political Bureau” of his closest adviser that he was the only man for this position.

In their last book, which was very observed, Origencinal Sin, and two prominent journalists in Washington, CNN’s Jake Taber and Alex Thompson From axios, he argues that there, as their translation suggests, cover up. The Biden family and the political office tried to hide its sedimentary cognitive decline, and restricted most of its meetings to between 10 am and 4 pm. Even the members of the Council of Ministers did not see him closely for several months, and in -depth media interviews were rare, such as a pride in the Vatican.

The authors generously blame the president, his wife, the other family members, and the closest of his advisers, but there is one group of people who save him curiously: themselves and their fellow journalists from Washington in Washington. Now, I have not returned to all their reports on CNN and Axios, and there is definitely Some pieces This must be mentioned to defend their journalistic record. But there is no doubt that American political journalists in general, and liberal comments in particular, were slow and leased to say what the Americans have long witnessed.

Why? New York Times Ezzra Klein is digging in this in episode From his excellent podcast. Frankly, he confessed that his invitation to Biden in February was “late”, exploring Klein in a conversation with Tapper why most others were later. The answer seems to be a mixture of ingredients: the journalistic fear of loss of access; The transitional tribalism of the Democratic Foundation; Respect for the imperial presidency; Fear Donald Trump. I am concerned about Kamala Harris as a supposed alternative candidate.

Fear of loss of access is a professional disease in the press. “I felt that you are destroying all your relationships with the White House at the same time,” said Klein. A notebook in September 2023 summarizes a private conversation with Washington -based column writer: “Yes, Biden should stand aside. It is it. [the columnist] I can’t say that.

I know, also from other sources, how the democratic establishment threat when trying to close any policy interrogation of Biden to clarify a second term. Even in the critical articles that appeared in the American media, there was a kind of remaining respect for the presidency, as if they were asking the king to give up instead of another political to stand aside. This stems partially from the 237 -year -old American constitutional apparatus to roll your prime minister and owners to one. In Britain, we shorten our remaining respect to the monarch while the Prime Minister is roasted every Wednesday in the Prime Minister’s questions. There was no person in the state of Biden 2023 in Dotag, who had not survived for two weeks in Westminster.

Then there is the fact that people were already panicked towards Trump and somehow thought, especially after democratic successes in the mid -period elections 2022, Biden was the only man who hit him. More than that since the supposed alternative Harris, who was seen as a relatively weak candidate. Thus, for fear of getting Harris, Trump, they got Harris and then Trump.

Some lessons, then, are clear. Tapper and Thompson open their book with a quotation from George Orwell: “To find out what is in front of one’s nose needs a continuous conflict.” But Orwell also invites us to say what we see, even if – no, especially, it is not comfortable for our side. There is a double test for reporters: see it and say it.

For the Democratic Foundation: Do not try to intimidate the media to self -censorship with the argument they give to the enemy. You have been best served by journalists who are doing their work, in the spirit of Orwell. Then: Change your old guard. Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democratic Assembly of the Senate, is older than Chernko and quickly joined Prishev. Oh yes, and simply listen to the people you are supposed to represent.

The tragedy of this entire story is that the Democrats have an abundance of talents in young generations – from Beit Batjej, Josh Shapiro, Grechen, and Javin New New star, Zahran Mamdani. They do not yet have a joint platform that can win in presidential elections, but thinkers such as Klein and Derik Thompson, the authors of Al -Wafra are the participants.and The other book is currently working on some good ideas. Democrats in the House of Representatives are likely to swing in the midterm elections next year with some new faces- and by focusing on the negative consequences already visible to Trump for working Americans and Mediterranean. But by 2027, in the period before the upcoming presidential elections, they will need everything they failed in its production in 2023.