Why does it matter to Larry Hogan’s long-running bid for a Senate seat?
FEgyptian republics Politicians are more different from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan Republican Party Maryland Senate candidate. Consider the contrasts between Trump’s rally and Hogan’s event. While Trump prefers to take the stage and speak in front of packed arenas, Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr. Hogan’s speech, which lasted about ten minutes, sounded like an off-script Trump speech. Trump is happy to challenge his advisors; Hogan sticks closely to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance, and overcoming tough odds. In other words, Mr. Hogan’s campaign is something Trump would rarely accuse of being boring. But it’s interesting.
The last Republican to run for Senate in Maryland received only 34% of the vote. Angela Alsobrooks, this year’s Democratic nominee, has deep experience in Maryland politics and leads Hogan in the polls, sometimes by double digits. The EconomistElection forecasts give him only a 6% chance of winning.
But donors seem more optimistic. The former Maryland governor enters the final stretch with unusually high heels for such a long-term effort. As of Oct. 6, his campaign and allied groups are set to spend $30 million on advertising in the state of six million between Labor Day and the election, $13 million more than Democrats. Republicans are spending more money on the Maryland Senate race than the two theoretically more competitive races in Arizona ($23 million) and Nevada ($19 million). For context, Joe Biden won Maryland by 33 points in 2020. He beat Trump by 0.3 points in the Grand Canyon State and by just over 2 points in Las Vegas.
Mr. Hogan has a history of winning. He trailed in the polls throughout his 2014 gubernatorial campaign before winning nearly 52% of the vote, handily winning re-election four years later in a tough cycle for Republicans. By the time he left office, he had an approval rating of 77%.
Some Republicans at the event in Middle River acknowledged that the former governor was not as conservative as they would like. He has harshly criticized Trump and said he supports legalizing abortion rights at the federal level. But with a degree of pragmatism unusual in today’s Republican Party, some conservative supporters have acknowledged that this is the cost of winning over independent voters, and even Democrats. If Hogan governs as a centrist, he at least kept high taxes at bay.
A deeply flawed Democratic candidate might have paved the way for a more competitive race, but Ms. Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, ran a professional campaign. It largely adheres to policies advocated by Kamala Harris: not raising taxes on people who earn less than $400,000 a year; A bipartisan immigration bill stalled earlier this year; And calling for an end to the obstruction in the Senate. It says that Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza. Republicans are attacking Ms. Alsobrooks for claiming tax breaks she was not eligible for in Washington and Maryland. The campaign says it is working to resolve the issue and repay any credits, and Mr. Hogan himself has said voters should not necessarily make their decision based on tax errors.
“I love and respect Angela Alsobrooks,” Mr. Hogan said during his opening remarks at the Oct. 10 debate. But when the candidates began squabbling over Mr. Hogan’s record on abortion, he responded, saying: “Her entire campaign is built on lies.” The two candidates sparred sharply over taxes, guns and reproductive rights, but her strongest attack may simply be to point out that Mr. Hogan is a Republican, associated with national Republican figures who are unpopular in the state.
“In the Senate, you work as part of a team,” Ms. Alsobrooks says. “The team that Larry Hogan is going to empower is, first and foremost, literally led by Donald Trump.” She adds that control of the Senate passes through Maryland, which is a bit of a stretch given that Republicans have a much better chance of winning contested elections in red states like Ohio and Montana.
Hogan refused to accept Trump’s endorsement, and made it clear that he would disagree greatly with his potential Republican colleagues. He even says he’s “a lot like” Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, the Senate Democrats-turned-independents who are retiring next year. But Mr. Hogan, citing the two defecting senators, has no interest in leaving the Senate Republican Party. “Although I admire them, they did not choose to run as independents for the Senate because the process is too difficult. “There is not much path to success,” he says. “They had to work through the party system, and I had to do that, too.” ■
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